Coronavirus

[Fellbeast]

On a more positive note, although cases being identified nowadays have been ticking up for a few weeks now, deaths are still going down

[Dave_Mole]

can you see that massive dip in cases just before lockdown that means that it was the wrong thing to do?







No, me neither.

[Witton Park]

But they will quite happily ask for ID when buying cigarettes or alcohol.

But the law is framed to make the shop the criminal in that case.

[Witton Park]

Interestingly you can't see a massive dip in cases prior to lockdown, because they were testing diddly-squat and only then in a hospital situation.
No one knows how many were exposed in the general population by Mid March.

What you can see though are the peak deaths.

From exposure, through symptoms, hospitalisation and then passing away there is a 3-4 week period, perhaps even longer.

3 weeks would put peak infection at somewhere around 10th - 15th March.

[bigfella]

Good point. Does the law need changing to make it the shop keepers problem?

[Dave_Mole]

3 weeks would put peak infection at somewhere around 10th - 15th March.

and, had it not been for lockdown, that number would have kept on climbing....

[Witton Park]

Good point. Does the law need changing to make it the shop keepers problem?

My take on the whole face covering thing is that it's a waste of time. I wear my buff but what good it serves I believe is nothing more than a security blanket type effect.

I don't think the law needs changing. It's a temporary measure and even though I disagree with it, if the Govt and their advisors are right, a partial take up of 75% will have a knock on reduction in the rate of spread. That is what they are after.

[Witton Park]

The number of cases was already dropping without lockdown so there is no reason why it would start climbing again?
It certainly wasn't an inevitability, as Sweden demonstrates.

The graph could be transposed over the UK one and there'd be little difference.

_113615736_covid19chartsweden.jpg

[Dave_Mole]

Sweden population: 10.2 m
UK population: 66.6m
Sweden population density:25/km2
UK population density: 275/km2
Sweden largest city population: 1.5m
UK largest city population: 8.9m

Despite the obvious differences between Sweden and the UK, like us having 10 times the population density, there's really no evidence, even if cases dropped in the week before lockdown, that lockdown was pointless. Because lockdown did, in fact happen. So the idea that "just letting it run its course" would have the same outcome is just speculation, with support for the argument coming from a single country which bears little resemblance to the UK.

Look at the rest of the world, however and things look a little different.
Do you really think that allowing life to go on as normal would have resulted in fewer deaths?

[Witton Park]

Sweden population: 10.2 m
UK population: 66.6m
Sweden population density:25/km2
UK population density: 275/km2
Sweden largest city population: 1.5m
UK largest city population: 8.9m

Despite the obvious differences between Sweden and the UK, like us having 10 times the population density, there's really no evidence, even if cases dropped in the week before lockdown, that lockdown was pointless. Because lockdown did, in fact happen. So the idea that "just letting it run its course" would have the same outcome is just speculation, with support for the argument coming from a single country which bears little resemblance to the UK.

Look at the rest of the world, however and things look a little different.
Do you really think that allowing life to go on as normal would have resulted in fewer deaths?

I don't normally respond to you as I see you as a nit-picker. You tend to pick at the opinions of others, rather than putting any of your own out there.
If I'm doing you a disservice, I apologise, but that is the perception I have on these political issues.

You make a good point on population density, I think often raised on here by Oracle to explain why we were being so affected several months ago.
It's a fair point, but doesn't explain it away because you can compare some of the built up areas in Sweden like Stockholm and we had some hotspots early on like the Cartmel penninsula.

You have "just letting it run its course" in quotes, but I'm not clear if you are quoting someone directly or not.
Sweden didn't let it ""just letting it run its course" but it used light-touch measures and advise, rather than our middle way, or the Spanish heavy hand.
I never said it would have had the same outcome, but I did draw attention to the outcomes which are remarkably similar in profile.
It's speculation that without lockdown also.

I don't know many that would just have let it run it's course, but most do query the methods used to manage the pandemic.
For example, I said back before we even had lockdown, that I expected an extended Easter school closure, perhaps adding 1 week at each end to make a 4-5 week closure.
Looking at the exam fiasco, we could have done that, and at the very least got the GCSE and A level exam students back in and avoided the shambles of the last week or so.