Coronavirus

[Muddy Retriever]

We need to be able to see both the new method figures and the old method figures - the latter are now very hard to find, despite it being said they would be provided. As Spiegelhalter says in the BMJ article: " The 28 day limit marks an improvement . . . but does exclude those who die more than a month after testing, even if they have covid on the death certificate. Including deaths up to 60 days, and later covid registered deaths, seems even better, but still excludes people who were not tested."

As to the 88% figure, it depends how you define a Covid death - this may seem circular, but I know from having filled them out myself that there is a huge amount of opinion and politics in what is written on death certificates - it used to be almost forbidden to write "cigarette smoking" for example - and in the current climate, without a positive test, it will often make life easier to leave Covid off, even if it was strongly suspected.

The 88% is analysis performed by PHE, which showed that 88% of those who died from Covid did so within 28 days of testing positive. So let's say PHE's daily figures done on a particular day stated deaths from Covid were 9, the true figure might be 10. And don't forget that there will be some who died within 28 days of a positive test of something else, but will still be included as a Covid death.

Why do you want to see the figures on the old basis? They were becoming ridiculous and as time goes on and people die of something else will become even more so.

[Muddy Retriever]

Economy/jobs vs deaths/chronic illness. It is not easy. But the best way to save the former is to minimise the latter. It is how we get there. Minimising the risk is not the answer, but of course nor is maximising it. Sikora is minimising the risk of Covid, but maximising the risk of "missed" cancers - an interesting mixture.

I don't think if you regularly read his tweets you would say Sikora was minimising the risk of Covid. I have read him urging the need for caution and people being careful. He is merely trying to put things in perspective - Covid deaths are at the moment very low. Cancer patients have been and are still being neglected. It is not just "missed cancers" but those who have had their treatments delayed.

There are currently only 454 people in English hospitals as a result of Covid. Of those only 62 are on a ventilator. In the UK as a whole there are 1257 hospitals (I don't know the figure for England but it will be the large majority). So more than half don't have a single case of Covid. This may change in the Autumn but right now other health issues need to start becoming a priority.

[Stagger]

Right. Wet, windy weather.

Let's all get back to work and see what happens next.

[Witton Park]

https://www.aier.org/article/lockdow...tudy-suggests/

[Mike T]

Why do you want to see the figures on the old basis? They were becoming ridiculous and as time goes on and people die of something else will become even more so.

Because every time they change the figures it is to make them look smaller/better. For example on the 21st of August the new method daily deaths were 2, the old method deaths 92; similar figures for the seven day average were 6.71 and 51.43. And remember when they used to show a chart comparing us to other countries - scrapped when it was obvious we were a case study in how not to handle an epidemic.

[Witton Park]

Because every time they change the figures it is to make them look smaller/better. For example on the 21st of August the new method daily deaths were 2, the old method deaths 92; similar figures for the seven day average were 6.71 and 51.43. And remember when they used to show a chart comparing us to other countries - scrapped when it was obvious we were a case study in how not to handle an epidemic.

I remember the charts - and I remember the regular discussions that it was impossible to make these comparisons so why the hell did they keep showing the chart, until we appeared to be doing worse, then all the doom-mongers thought the charts were bang on.

Maybe every time they change the figures, it gives the appearance of making them look better because from the start they were made to look worse, so there is only one way to go when corrections are made.

I haven't heard one case yet of under counting. But several of over counting.

[Muddy Retriever]

Because every time they change the figures it is to make them look smaller/better. For example on the 21st of August the new method daily deaths were 2, the old method deaths 92; similar figures for the seven day average were 6.71 and 51.43. And remember when they used to show a chart comparing us to other countries - scrapped when it was obvious we were a case study in how not to handle an epidemic.

Your examples only go to prove how ridiculous the figures were on the old basis. I seem to remember one day about a month ago where about seven people had died of Covid in English hospitals but the PHE daily count in all settings was about 100. It made no sense.

Where is the logic of counting every single death as a Covid death just because they once had the infection? It means that nobody ever recovers and the infection fatality rate is 100%. I once had a nose bleed, when I die shall we say that was the cause? I think I'm right in saying that you once predicted that the number of deaths from Covid in this country would end up being the wrong side of 250,000. I can see why you like the old method, you will eventually be proved right. But it might take a few decades or so.

You mention international comparisons. As WP says, they are difficult enough to make at the best of times due to different methodologies. But they become completely meaningless if one country adopts a system as bizarre as PHE did. The 28 day method brings England into line with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but I daresay it is still far more strict than many other countries.

The question I would ask is not why the figures have changed to make them look better but why they were counted in such an inflated way in the first place.

[Mike T]

Your examples only go to prove how ridiculous the figures were on the old basis. I seem to remember one day about a month ago where about seven people had died of Covid in English hospitals but the PHE daily count in all settings was about 100. It made no sense.

Where is the logic of counting every single death as a Covid death just because they once had the infection? It means that nobody ever recovers and the infection fatality rate is 100%. I once had a nose bleed, when I die shall we say that was the cause? I think I'm right in saying that you once predicted that the number of deaths from Covid in this country would end up being the wrong side of 250,000. I can see why you like the old method, you will eventually be proved right. But it might take a few decades or so.

You mention international comparisons. As WP says, they are difficult enough to make at the best of times due to different methodologies. But they become completely meaningless if one country adopts a system as bizarre as PHE did. The 28 day method brings England into line with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but I daresay it is still far more strict than many other countries.

The question I would ask is not why the figures have changed to make them look better but why they were counted in such an inflated way in the first place.

I agree that if someone dies under a bus 3 months after a positive test it is nonsense to call it a Covid death - but equally it is nonsense to say it is not a Covid death when someone dies due to Covid pneumonia 29 days after a positive test. And those excess deaths - it is generally agreed that many will be due to Covid - and even a delay in diagnosis/treatment of cancer resulting in death is indirectly due to Covid. As to the 250,000, we are according to some a quarter of the way there and it has only just started. I do not want this figure to be reached just because I predicted it! Only a vaccine will solve this. The sooner the better, obviously.

[Derby Tup]

The biggest current threat to life from Covid is dying of boredom reading this thread

[Stagger]

The biggest current threat to life from Covid is dying of boredom reading this thread

Don't read it and live longer