Coronavirus

[Muddy Retriever]

I agree that if someone dies under a bus 3 months after a positive test it is nonsense to call it a Covid death - but equally it is nonsense to say it is not a Covid death when someone dies due to Covid pneumonia 29 days after a positive test. And those excess deaths - it is generally agreed that many will be due to Covid - and even a delay in diagnosis/treatment of cancer resulting in death is indirectly due to Covid. As to the 250,000, we are according to some a quarter of the way there and it has only just started. I do not want this figure to be reached just because I predicted it! Only a vaccine will solve this. The sooner the better, obviously.

So if you agree that if someone dies under a bus 3 months after a positive test it is nonsense to call it a Covid death, why do you think these figures should continue to be published?

It is true that some people who die of Covid do so more than 28 days after contracting the virus but it is a small minority - 12% according to analysis done by PHE. So as I said the other day if the daily reported figure is say 9, the true figure might be 10. The old method could well say 100 and this discrepancy would get much larger over time. Also don't forget there will be a small number of people reported as having died of Covid within 28 days who died of something else, so still a possibility of over count.

As for the excess deaths over and above the reported Covid figures, I do not think the general agreement is that this is due to Covid. Both Sage and The Universities of Sheffield and Loughborough have said it was down to the non-treatment of other conditions due to lack of access. You may put that down to Covid, I put it down to a choice that was made. Even now, these services are still not back to the levels they should be despite most hospitals not having a single case of Covid in them.

[Mike T]

So if you agree that if someone dies under a bus 3 months after a positive test it is nonsense to call it a Covid death, why do you think these figures should continue to be published?

It is true that some people who die of Covid do so more than 28 days after contracting the virus but it is a small minority - 12% according to analysis done by PHE. So as I said the other day if the daily reported figure is say 9, the true figure might be 10. The old method could well say 100 and this discrepancy would get much larger over time. Also don't forget there will be a small number of people reported as having died of Covid within 28 days who died of something else, so still a possibility of over count.

As for the excess deaths over and above the reported Covid figures, I do not think the general agreement is that this is due to Covid. Both Sage and The Universities of Sheffield and Loughborough have said it was down to the non-treatment of other conditions due to lack of access. You may put that down to Covid, I put it down to a choice that was made. Even now, these services are still not back to the levels they should be despite most hospitals not having a single case of Covid in them.

Because for every bus death there will be a Covid death that was missed as the test was a false negative - and letting us see the results using the old method of working out the figures means there is no sudden jump in the numbers, and we can compare the results from the start of the pandemic up to the present.
The 88% of Covid deaths within 28 days, as I said, depends on how you define a Covid death, and how accurately the death certificate is filled out. I am very suspicious that many of the deaths said to be from pneumonia and flu are in fact "missed" Covid deaths. And imagine the pressures on a doctor filling out a death certificate where the Covid was hospital acquired.
If someone cannot have their curative cancer operation because there would not be an ICU bed for them post op because of Covid, then that is a Covid death as far as I am concerned. Many such operations, and the investigations preceding them, have been delayed. Hence my enthusiasm for excess deaths, not just deaths said to be from a specific cause.

[Witton Park]

I am very suspicious that many of the deaths said to be from pneumonia and flu are in fact "missed" Covid deaths.

I am very suspicious that many of the deaths said to be from COVID are in fact "missed" pneumonia and flu deaths.

[Graham Breeze]

Because for every bus death there will be a Covid death that was missed as the test was a false negative - and letting us see the results using the old method of working out the figures means there is no sudden jump in the numbers, and we can compare the results from the start of the pandemic up to the present.
The 88% of Covid deaths within 28 days, as I said, depends on how you define a Covid death, and how accurately the death certificate is filled out. I am very suspicious that many of the deaths said to be from pneumonia and flu are in fact "missed" Covid deaths. And imagine the pressures on a doctor filling out a death certificate where the Covid was hospital acquired.
If someone cannot have their curative cancer operation because there would not be an ICU bed for them post op because of Covid, then that is a Covid death as far as I am concerned. Many such operations, and the investigations preceding them, have been delayed. Hence my enthusiasm for excess deaths, not just deaths said to be from a specific cause.

I take my mother to hospital on a regular basis for treatment. Pre-covid the waiting room used to be "packed".

Yesterday there was no-one there when we arrived and in the hour and a half we were there I saw two/three other patients in the same department. I conclude that patients who had not started their treatment last March are being deferred. But for whose benefit?

[Witton Park]

I take my mother to hospital on a regular basis for treatment. Pre-covid the waiting room used to be "packed".

Yesterday there was no-one there when we arrived and in the hour and a half we were there I saw two/three other patients in the same department. I conclude that patients who had not started their treatment last March are being deferred. But for whose benefit?

It's to save the NHS Graham.

SavetheNHS.jpg

[Dave_Mole]

I am very suspicious that many of the deaths said to be from COVID are in fact "missed" pneumonia and flu deaths.

I am very suspicious about people arguing about death certificates with someone who used to fill in death certificates.

But then, I'm just old fashioned.

[Muddy Retriever]

Because for every bus death there will be a Covid death that was missed as the test was a false negative - and letting us see the results using the old method of working out the figures means there is no sudden jump in the numbers, and we can compare the results from the start of the pandemic up to the present.

Patients showing symptoms whose test results give a false negative are retested.

At the start of the pandemic the old method would be accurate since the first recorded cases in Britain were in late February. So anybody dying in March and April would likely have done so within 28 days of a positive test anyway. But how can it be comparable now if somebody was infected in February/March recovers and then goes on to die of something else in August? I don't understand why you are advocating the continued use of this method. It just makes the virus appear more deadly than it is and would be totally misleading and damaging if it was used to influence policy.

The 88% of Covid deaths within 28 days, as I said, depends on how you define a Covid death, and how accurately the death certificate is filled out. I am very suspicious that many of the deaths said to be from pneumonia and flu are in fact "missed" Covid deaths. And imagine the pressures on a doctor filling out a death certificate where the Covid was hospital acquired.

Presumably then we should be seeing a spike in recorded flu deaths from all these falsely completed death certificates? Well it's certainly true that flu and pneumonia deaths greatly exceed those of Covid at the moment. However, in July recorded deaths from flu were 50% below their five year average.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/107790/flu...-than-covid-19

[Graham Breeze]

I am very suspicious about people arguing about death certificates with someone who used to fill in death certificates.

But then, I'm just old fashioned.

Yes. When my father died I expressed a wish about the cause of death to be recorded on the certificate and the Doctor was very understanding; and my mother and I were very grateful.

[Wheeze]

Too true DT!😄

[Mike T]

I am very suspicious about people arguing about death certificates with someone who used to fill in death certificates.

But then, I'm just old fashioned.

Death certificates are usually filled in by the most junior doctors. They are supervised at first, and there are strict guidelines. But there is still a lot of leeway. The general form is the cause of death is A due to B due to C etc; you can add contributory causes as well. There will be multiple "accurate" certifications that are a true reflection of what has gone on in a single patient's case - which one do you do? Do you mention alcohol/cigarettes/obesity/diabetes - they are just risk factors after all. As I said, to mention cigarette smoking in a case of lung cancer was a real no-no until relatively recently, yet you could mention diabetes in someone who had had a heart attack. As to Covid, what if you test positive, apparently recover, then have a fatal stroke 5 weeks down the line? I could replace "fatal stroke" with multiple medical problems that pre-exist Covid, yet Covid significantly increases the risk of getting them/dying from them. And if the Covid was hospital acquired, do you refer to the coroner for an inquest? What if they were hospital workers? What if PPE access was dodgy? Strong pressure has been applied from the top to keep the coroner out of most Covid cases.