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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #2291
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    allow small parties
    No parties allowed!
    Rule of six from tomorrow!!!
    I'm being oppressed! Come and see the violence inherent in the system!

  2. #2292
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    As I understand the new rules, larger gatherings are still allowed at pubs, restaurants, gyms, schools, places of worship, weddings and funerals. Education and work place's are not affected.

    Personally I find it a very strange rule and will be interested to see if it cuts the spread of the virus and also how many get prosecution's.

  3. #2293
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    Accidentally ended up with BBC on yesterday morning and Sky News this morning, flagging up the heightened number of cases and deaths.
    At one point Sky this morning announced 3000+ cases and 5 deaths for the last days figures - but the 5 was announced as if it was in the small print.

    I just had a look.

    The ONS have a spreadsheet record of deaths by Hospital Trust up to 11th September. We'd been coming down weekly for months, but there was a small spike last week. The first increase in recorded deaths in hospitals since the early days.
    In September so far, 66 deaths in 11 days. That's an increase of around 10-15%.
    20 of those came in Tameside. Top of the list.
    6 at Salford. 2nd on the list.
    3 at Manchester. 6th on the list.

    Only 4.5% pf Trusts recorded more than one death.
    87% haven't yet recorded a Covid death in September.

    Ringfence Greater Manchester - sorted.

    My own Trust covering East Lancs from Blackburn to Colne hasn't recorded a Covid death for 3 weeks now. There hasn't been any increase that is shown in the statistics other than positive tests, which started to show back in early July.

    https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.u...yYUNj107jKm5v8
    Richard Taylor
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  4. #2294
    Super Moderator Derby Tup's Avatar
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    Interesting post Witton, thanks

    So the ‘Northern mill towns’ aren’t losing people then?
    Poacher turned game-keeper

  5. #2295
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave_Mole View Post
    No parties allowed!
    Rule of six from tomorrow!!!
    I'm being oppressed! Come and see the violence inherent in the system!
    I'm cool.

    I always knew that with patience we introverted, misanthropic recluses would finally get our day in the sun
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  6. #2296
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derby Tup View Post
    Interesting post Witton, thanks

    So the ‘Northern mill towns’ aren’t losing people then?
    Not yet. I'm sure some will believe there is still time and they might be right.

    I had a look at the local news for Tameside and they think these local deaths are linked to some care home issues.
    https://www.questmedianetwork.co.uk/...hs-in-country/
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  7. #2297
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    It shouldn't be difficult to comprehend.
    Lockdown meant the virus didn't have anywhere to go so was suppressed. Social distancing and face coverings, with good hygiene, meant viral loads have been kept low. As not everyone who is inflected dies, low infection rates mean low death rates. We've had low infection rates for a while.

    Over the last few days, infection rates are rising towards 3000 per day. So potential for deaths is also rising. We do, however, better understand the virus now, compared to in March. It can take up to eight weeks between infection and death, so we're potentially up to two months behind a big rise.

  8. #2298
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    I think I read that the average time lag between covid infection and death is about three weeks. According to PHE 88% of Covid deaths occur within 28 days of the first positive specimen date.

    The average number of cases over the last week was 3,050, which is 41% up on the previous week (1,812). That had been 31% up on the week before that (1,244).

    We should therefore start seeing what effect this increase in positive tests has over the next couple of weeks.

  9. #2299
    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    I think I read that the average time lag between covid infection and death is about three weeks. According to PHE 88% of Covid deaths occur within 28 days of the first positive specimen date.

    The average number of cases over the last week was 3,050, which is 41% up on the previous week (1,812). That had been 31% up on the week before that (1,244).

    We should therefore start seeing what effect this increase in positive tests has over the next couple of weeks.
    Is the age profile of cases lower than in the initial wave?

    If so deaths should be lower because the young tend to survive.

    We are also wiser about protecting people in care homes.

    The NHS has got better at treating Covid so the deaths per cases should be lower anyway.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  10. #2300
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    I think I read that the average time lag between covid infection and death is about three weeks. According to PHE 88% of Covid deaths occur within 28 days of the first positive specimen date.

    The average number of cases over the last week was 3,050, which is 41% up on the previous week (1,812). That had been 31% up on the week before that (1,244).

    We should therefore start seeing what effect this increase in positive tests has over the next couple of weeks.
    That's just based on the current national trend of positive cases.

    We had "spikes" in 4 of the constituencies covered by East Lancashire Healthcare Trust Blackburn, Hyndburn, Burnley and Pendle.
    Those date back to July with Blackburn announcing measures on 14th July, after 2 weeks of rising positive tests.

    So whether it's 3 weeks, 28 days, or up to 8 weeks, East Lancashire Healthcare Trust should have seen a rise in admissions in August and a rise in deaths by now.

    They haven't. So why?

    The authorities aren't coming up with an explanation. In fact they aren't even attempting to.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

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