Coronavirus

[Flem]

They would have sat there and advised that if we proceed at this rate, by Mid March we could have around 14 million cases per day and a almost 1/3 of the UK population, perhaps 1/2 of the adult population, would have contracted COVID.

I think it extremely unlikely that they would have done anything of the sort. I think the mathematical models they are using are slightly more sophisticated than you give them credit for. (For example, you seem to be implying that they don't know about or understand the issue of false positive test results. They most surely do.) Forgive me, but that's just a silly claim on your part. Presumably, it was intended as a joke.

As to the letter with its Appendix, I don't find it to be particularly controversial, and I don't see it as being particularly inconsistent with my views. It's certainly in marked contrast with the 'open letter' you referenced.

However, the letter does say "... the current debate appears unhelpfully polarised around views that COVID is extremely deadly to all ...". I certainly haven't heard anyone claim that "COVID is extremely deadly to all".

[Dave_Mole]

I think it extremely unlikely that they would have done anything of the sort. I think the mathematical models they are using are slightly more sophisticated than you give them credit for.

Indeed.

Same with the false positive thing. A rate of 0.1% making the whole concept of testing somehow unreliable.

[Muddy Retriever]

Patrick Vallance said that cases were doubling every seven days. However the average in the seven days to yesterday was 3,679 according to the Government's website. The average for the previous seven days was 3,050. That is an increase of 21% so nowhere near doubling. Admittedly last week was quite a bit higher than the previous week, which had been 1,812 but it's still not doubling every seven days. Unless I'm missing something, it would be more accurate to say that reported cases are doubling every fourteen days.

[Flem]

Valance just told us at the current rate we will have around 50k cases per day and 200 deaths per day by Mid October.

Not according to the reports I've just read, he didn't. What I've seen reported is that he said:

“If – and that’s quite a big if – but if that continues unabated and this grows, doubling every seven days, [...] by mid-October, if that continued, you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October, per day.”

He also went on to say that the “50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November, say, to 200-plus deaths per day."

So, rather than the '200 deaths per day by Mid October' he was referring to mid November. And there's a lot more uncertainty there than you seemed to imply. I'm not sure what there is in what he said that you take issue with.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk...102424364.html.
UK could see 200 deaths a day by mid-November unless action taken – Vallance

[Dave_Mole]

Was also careful to say that it wasn't a prediction, but an indication of what could happen.

[Muddy Retriever]

The Government's fear seems to be that the UK is following the trajectory of France and Spain as it did back in March. So it's worth looking at their current figures. Here's France:
France cases.JPG

The cases still seem to be going up in France but nothing like doubling every seven days.

Now here's Spain:
Spain cases.JPG

Spain's cases started to spike sooner than France and much sooner than the UK. The population of Spain is about 70% the size of the UK. So perhaps we might expect to see their cases at around or above 35,000 by now (assuming the UK might be at 50,000 by mid October). The graph however shows them reaching around 10,000 per day, plateauing for a while and now on their way down (at least for now.)

[Witton Park]

Patrick Vallance said that cases were doubling every seven days. However the average in the seven days to yesterday was 3,679 according to the Government's website. The average for the previous seven days was 3,050. That is an increase of 21% so nowhere near doubling. Admittedly last week was quite a bit higher than the previous week, which had been 1,812 but it's still not doubling every seven days. Unless I'm missing something, it would be more accurate to say that reported cases are doubling every fourteen days.

PV also commenteed on the increasing number of tests and whether that could be the reason.

He said no, as they had seen the proportion of tests coming through as positive had increased.

During September the "come and get tested, you don't need to have symptoms" has changed to "only those who have symptoms" and regardless of other factors that will give a proportionate increase in the number of positive tests.

[Witton Park]

https://www.vanmorrison.com/news/202...ainst-lockdown

I'm sure some of you guys will get sneak pre-release previews

[Flem]

https://www.vanmorrison.com/news/202...ainst-lockdown

I'm sure some of you guys will get sneak pre-release previews

Old news, WP. You should read the Brexit thread (post number 461 in particular).

Is there any reason why you don't post on the Brexit thread?

[Dave_Mole]

fat old bloke whinges about stuff...

Meanwhile....
https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/21/coron...june-13304557/