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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #2441
    Master Muddy Retriever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    One of the most telling stats that I've learned since covid all kicked off is that something like 450 people die each and every day of cancer. That said covid is an infectious disease which can therefore be 'treated' by stopping people getting infected so, at a very base level, it has a "treatment" that works. I think though its covid's ability to multiply super fast if left unchecked that makes deciding any course of action very scary to quantify and, given the government's previous track record with it, they just can't afford to be to libertarian with their dealings with it right now. Another screw up will surely lose Boris his job?
    I partly agree with you, we saw what Covid could do back in the Spring. It's not my intention to downplay it.

    However it isn't being left unchecked. We still have plenty of restrictions on daily life before the expected further constraints that will be announced today.

    Also, I don't think it is helpful when our chief science and medical officers go on national television and wilfully misrepresent the facts. The number of cases aren't doubling every seven days, that is demonstrably untrue. Even if you were to say, well ok let's look at France and Spain, this is what it could do. France's cases seem to be doubling every three weeks and Spain's figures, don't appear to be even rising anymore having got nowhere near 35,000 cases per day (pro rata the 50,000 suggested for the UK when adjusted for population size.)

    No wonder they didn't take any questions.

  2. #2442
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post

    Also, I don't think it is helpful when our chief science and medical officers go on national television and wilfully misrepresent the facts. The number of cases aren't doubling every seven days, that is demonstrably untrue. Even if you were to say, well ok let's look at France and Spain, this is what it could do. France's cases seem to be doubling every three weeks and Spain's figures, don't appear to be even rising anymore having got nowhere near 35,000 cases per day (pro rata the 50,000 suggested for the UK when adjusted for population size.)

    No wonder they didn't take any questions.
    Maybe its a bad cop good cop thing; the scientists go in yesterday and paint a purposely scary picture and then Boris waltzes in today and comes across a bit more reassuring? For sure I do think far too many people, especially pub goers after they've had a few, had become dangerously blazé about it all. Hopefully the cock sureness "it won't effect me" attitude might not be so common place now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    I partly agree with you, we saw what Covid could do back in the Spring. It's not my intention to downplay it.

    However it isn't being left unchecked. We still have plenty of restrictions on daily life before the expected further constraints that will be announced today.

    Also, I don't think it is helpful when our chief science and medical officers go on national television and wilfully misrepresent the facts. The number of cases aren't doubling every seven days, that is demonstrably untrue. Even if you were to say, well ok let's look at France and Spain, this is what it could do. France's cases seem to be doubling every three weeks and Spain's figures, don't appear to be even rising anymore having got nowhere near 35,000 cases per day (pro rata the 50,000 suggested for the UK when adjusted for population size.)

    No wonder they didn't take any questions.
    Even Sky News are starting to question the information, so perhaps we will move in the right direction, even if not quite yet.
    Sky.jpg

    The graph was used by Ed Conway.
    Sir Patrick - let's look what is happening in Europe.
    He then only considered France and Spain, the two worst cases. No mention of Italy, Germany, Sweden...
    He then went on to present the graph of doom.

    It was apolitcal advisors dripping in politics in my opinion.

    Andrew Neil is on their case.

    BBC are starting to probe.

    Reasons for optimism.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
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  4. #2444
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    This chart is worrying too, especially if you're Asian. Presumably its down to Asians often living at the poorer end of the spectrum, doing a higher proportion of jobs where working from home isn't an option and mixing with others more of a necessity and culturally thinking of the 'family' as a much wider thing incorporating grandparents, aunts, uncles etc


  5. #2445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    Maybe its a bad cop good cop thing; the scientists go in yesterday and paint a purposely scary picture and then Boris waltzes in today and comes across a bit more reassuring? For sure I do think far too many people, especially pub goers after they've had a few, had become dangerously blazé about it all. Hopefully the cock sureness "it won't effect me" attitude might not be so common place now?
    Compliance is slipping in some parts that's true but exaggerating the threat could be counter-productive. If people can't trust the experts to be straight, some will stop listening. At the other extreme others will become excessively fearful and may be too scared to go to hospital for treatment of other issues. We know this has already been happening.

    And that's before we get to the impact further restrictions will have on an already battered economy.

  6. #2446
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Even Sky News are starting to question the information, so perhaps we will move in the right direction, even if not quite yet.
    Sky.jpg
    That graph says it all.

  7. #2447
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    This chart is worrying too, especially if you're Asian. Presumably its down to Asians often living at the poorer end of the spectrum, doing a higher proportion of jobs where working from home isn't an option and mixing with others more of a necessity and culturally thinking of the 'family' as a much wider thing incorporating grandparents, aunts, uncles etc

    I'm not sure if you recall, but when the Blackburn spike was identified back in July, around 80% were said to be of South Asian ethnicity and that followed on from some local paper reports, even the BBC of mass funerals locall and even a cricket tournament.
    There's been other stories from around the M65 area since such as 250 at a wedding do.

    Some say it's lack of understanding, some say it's a defiant attitude from some sections, but they received a lot of flack locally.

    I tend to think that was unfair now.

    Sir Patrick yessterday set out that 50k positive tests in October would have a knock on effect of 200 deaths in November.

    Using that ratio and looking at the stats for East Lancashire Healthcare Trust we should have been getting getting fatalities by mid-end August.
    We have had one on 23rd August - now 30 days without.

    Something doesn't add up. Maybe these people were unfairly judged as spreaders. Maybe they were viral frgaments from earlier infections.
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  8. #2448
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    Getting stalled with all the rules now.

  9. #2449
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    And irony of ironies did Michael Gove say that we should now 'listen to the experts?"
    And here's Michael Deacon in today's Daily Telegraph, reporting on Boris Johnson’s speech in the House of Commons yesterday.

    “The problem we have in the spread of this virus,” said Mr Johnson grimly, “is that, alas, a minority of people have not been following the guidance in the way that they might have.” He added that nothing was “more frustrating for the law-abiding majority than the sight of a few brazenly defying the rules”.

    (I'm now going to steal the words of Marina Hyde writing in The Guardian a few days ago about Chris Grayling, and change just a few of them.)

    When I read Michael Deacon's article I imagined Michael Gove pulling a hammer-wielding Dominic Cummings off the pulped corpse of Satire, going: “Jesus, Dom! Leave it – it’s already dead! We need to get out of here!”

  10. #2450
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    This morning's episode of More or Less on Radio 4 addressed the issues of the doubling period of the number of Covid infections and of false positive test results. (The episode is available for download.)

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