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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #2731
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    I posted this link a week ago.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...453-7/fulltext

    It was described as about improving accuracy and reliability, and I agree. There are huge question marks over the accuracy and reliability of testing.
    The current rate of operational false-positive swab tests in the UK is unknown; preliminary estimates show it could be somewhere between 0·8% and 4·0%

    Of course any issue with testing would be national and not localised and you have asked for thoughts on localised problems.

    Is there an issue of case chasing? Find a few cases, track and race, hit the hotspots with your mobile testing teams.
    If you do that, and particularly if you are focussing on the student population, and there is a problem with the test, that is going to be amplified.

    September is always the start of the respiratory illness season as we move in to Autumn. I don't know if there are historic records for regionalised effects of this. I've only seen national ones which indicate that in a bad Septmeber we can see >20,000 hospital admissions for respiratory conditions.
    I'm assuming this is partly weather, partly back to school, back from holidays. That being the case the weather would certainly bring that forward in Scotland and the North.

    Finally, the North and Scotland have had strciter lockdown measures. Maybe those measures are more of a problem than a solution?
    Why don't you take a few minutes and actually listen to the section on testing and false positives on this?
    You might learn something about how testing actually works in reality.
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  2. #2732
    Moderator noel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGrump View Post
    For those profilic posters on this thread, who persist in quoting statistics and proffering correlations, you really should visit this website first.
    Profilic? Where's spelling bee?

    Interesting link. I like this one too: https://xkcd.com/552/

  3. #2733
    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    Profilic? Where's spelling bee?

    Interesting link. I like this one too: https://xkcd.com/552/
    I do wonder how people (ie you!) come across sites like this (even recognising the sheltered life I lead) - unless you work in computers or are a statistician or an actuary.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  4. #2734
    Moderator noel's Avatar
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    xkcd was pointed out to me by a friend who's a geology lecturer. Randall Munroe, the author of the site has written some very funny books. I'd recommend "What if?".

  5. #2735
    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    xkcd was pointed out to me by a friend who's a geology lecturer. Randall Munroe, the author of the site has written some very funny books. I'd recommend "What if?".
    Well with that recommendation..I've just ordered a copy.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  6. #2736
    Moderator Mossdog's Avatar
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    So, the science driven Covid policy is that I can't go to my local, The Absurd Arms, and sit on the table to the left of the door with just a pint. But, I can go to my local, sit on the same table, with a pint PLUS a plate of 'pie and chips' (if I'm among those lucky ones who can afford the extra cost of the meal).

    I think science is wonderful and I wish I'd been part of the controlled experiment that proved 'pie and chips' offer immunity to Covid. And it's not like a policy that encourages more eating of pub grub could have any unintended consequences which might exacerbate one's susceptibility to Covid (obesity) !

    You couldn't make this up. Only THEY have!
    Am Yisrael Chai

  7. #2737
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mossdog View Post
    So, the science driven Covid policy is that I can't go to my local, The Absurd Arms, and sit on the table to the left of the door with just a pint. But, I can go to my local, sit on the same table, with a pint PLUS a plate of 'pie and chips' (if I'm among those lucky ones who can afford the extra cost of the meal).

    I think science is wonderful and I wish I'd been part of the controlled experiment that proved 'pie and chips' offer immunity to Covid. And it's not like a policy that encourages more eating of pub grub could have any unintended consequences which might exacerbate one's susceptibility to Covid (obesity) !

    You couldn't make this up. Only THEY have!
    At the same time, I'm guessing the law of averages says that people who have a meal and a drink in a pub are more likely to be a bit more sedate and are less likely to be rowdy and on a session. Like any rules, it's the edges of the rules that will always bring out seemingly daft contradictions but the line has to be drawn somewhere. You know another alternative might have been to say the pub can't sell any food or beer for instance which is not nearly 'as good' as a pub that can sell beer but only with food.

    What I think is most telling about Boris's announcement yesterday is that he coincided it with all of the SAGE meeting minutes that had been recommending much harsher restrictions being brought in 3 weeks ago. Boris, presumably with his mind only on the anti-restriction, anti-lockdown part of the tory party, clearly thought this was him showing how 'restrained' he's been in not following the SAGE recommendations... seemingly forgetting entirely everybody else who are sat there gawping open mouthed at his astounding recklessness

  8. #2738
    Moderator noel's Avatar
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    If the last lock-down taught us anything when viewed across multiple countries it's that early harsh lock-downs lead to fewer deaths and can be eased sooner - probably with less effect on the economy.

    It's looking like the scientists learnt that lesson, but not the politicians.

    Having said that, politicians also know (more than scientists) that you need to wait until public opinion is on your side. A harsh lock-down three weeks ago might have led to lots of people ignoring it.

  9. #2739
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    At the same time, I'm guessing the law of averages says that people who have a meal and a drink in a pub are more likely to be a bit more sedate and are less likely to be rowdy and on a session. Like any rules, it's the edges of the rules that will always bring out seemingly daft contradictions but the line has to be drawn somewhere. You know another alternative might have been to say the pub can't sell any food or beer for instance which is not nearly 'as good' as a pub that can sell beer but only with food.
    Yes, I think there's truth in that. But I'm mindful that there are a lot of (mainly older, perhaps single, guys/gals) who rely on pubs, during the day, as their only point of social contact. I think we've all seen them in city centers, nursing their pints, watching the telly and just people watching. I feel for these 'fellahs' who don't have the cash for a meal. This is feeding a burgeoning mental health issue (no pun intended) . Especially when those who can't now afford a pint (and the obligatory meal) have to watch those who can, sit in their pubs scoffing and quaffing. A form of unintended social exclusion, increasing the sense of heightened social alienation for some more vulnerable members of our society.

    The mayor of Middlesborough also made a salient point on the radio this morning, commenting how pubs in his area (inner city/urban) who cater for 'our fellah' above, or who don't have the clientele inclined to eat out, have to close effectively due to a devastation of their customer base. As they're not in Tier 3 they also don't receive any financial support from the Government. It's lose-lose.

    Maybe a complete closure of all pubs (with all receiving financial support)would have been a better option and less divisive between the better of and those less well financially equipped, as well as dealing the virus a more effective blow? Not an easy call I appreciate.
    Last edited by Mossdog; 13-10-2020 at 11:23 AM.
    Am Yisrael Chai

  10. #2740
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    If the last lock-down taught us anything when viewed across multiple countries it's that early harsh lock-downs lead to fewer deaths and can be eased sooner - probably with less effect on the economy.

    It's looking like the scientists learnt that lesson, but not the politicians.

    Having said that, politicians also know (more than scientists) that you need to wait until public opinion is on your side. A harsh lock-down three weeks ago might have led to lots of people ignoring it.
    I missed those early, hard lockdowns that worked in the Western world. Of course if you look in the Far East which have probably don ebetter for different reasons, or you consider the cul-de-sac New Zealand maybe.

    But New Zealand will have to lock down until the arrival of the messiah vaccine. At what cost?
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
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