This conversation is bring back bad memories of the 1992 European Championships and Graham Taylor.
Swedes 2 Turnips 1
I'm not sure it has taught us this. Peru locked down hard and early and has the worst death rate in the world (bar tiny San Marino). In Europe, Belgium locked down hard and early and has the worst death rate in Europe. It also hasn't prevented them having a second wave, with case numbers which are at the moment worse than ours proportionate to their population. Meanwhile, Japan only had restrictions on a par with Sweden and didn't bother overmuch with any of that testing malarky. They have 1,629 deaths from Covid, which is less than Ireland despite having 25 times the population.
So it suggests there are many other factors at play which determine the success or otherwise of a country in coping with the virus. Certainly population density, which is one of the reason why we have done badly (like Belgium) and perhaps some acquired immunity in the far east from exposure to previous coronaviruses.
Lockdowns if they are complied with or enforced do seem to suppress the virus eventually but only for a while. Even if you get numbers down to very small numbers the virus will just pop up again once restrictions are eased as is happening all over Europe. And at what cost to livelihoods, mental health and other medical conditions?