Coronavirus

[noel]

Thanks Muddy and Dave. It seems it's so hard to make comparisons between countries. For every one that seems to back a hypothesis (eg, my "hard and early"), there are others that don't and there are so many differences such as culture, population density etc.

Even saying track and trace is the way forward... That seems reasonable to me, and I can point to South Korea where it worked brilliantly. But then that's a very different country to the UK. Are there any countries with good track and trace systems where it hasn't worked?

[Dave_Mole]

Are there any countries with good track and trace systems where it hasn't worked?

We seem to be world leaders in failing test and trace...the WHO were calling for it months ago. Not sure if there's anywhere with a good system that hasn't worked, but plenty of places which have crappy ones or none with predictable results.

https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-opin...e-edges-closer

[anthonykay]

Thanks Muddy and Dave. It seems it's so hard to make comparisons between countries. For every one that seems to back a hypothesis (eg, my "hard and early"), there are others that don't and there are so many differences such as culture, population density etc.

The clearest correlation seems to be with longitude.

Furthest east: New Zealand, with very few Covid deaths. Australia, Japan, South Korea also doing very well (and China, although I don't trust the non-news coming out of that country). Europe doing much worse, with UK and Spain on the Western fringes particularly bad, and Eastern Europe not so bad. Then across the Atlantic to the Americas, and you find the real disaster areas for Covid deaths: USA, Brazil, Peru, etc.

[Dave_Mole]

The clearest correlation seems to be with longitude.

Furthest east: New Zealand, with very few Covid deaths. Australia, Japan, South Korea also doing very well (and China, although I don't trust the non-news coming out of that country). Europe doing much worse, with UK and Spain on the Western fringes particularly bad, and Eastern Europe not so bad. Then across the Atlantic to the Americas, and you find the real disaster areas for Covid deaths: USA, Brazil, Peru, etc.

You're forgetting India.

[anthonykay]

You're forgetting India.

No, they have a large number of total cases and deaths, but on deaths per million population they are well below the mean for the world.

[Muddy Retriever]

Someone had a go recently at the mention of Peru, but there's a detailed timeline here.
"Experts say Peru's healthcare system was underprepared, leading to more deaths, but several other social and economic factors can help explain why Peru is struggling to contain the outbreak."
A lot of households can't store foodstuffs (no fridges), use of markets and the "informal economy" and overcrowded housing all contributed.

That timeline does confirm that Peru went into lockdown early, before the country had seen its first death in fact.

I would agree that there are social and economic factors in Peru that would make it comparisons with say Europe difficult. So let's compare with its next door neighbour Brazil, a country that has similar issues but has attracted a lot of criticism for its response to the pandemic. Indeed, last month you said "If you want to see what an unchecked virus looks like, have a look at Brazil."

According to Worldometer Brazil has to date suffered a death rate from Covid of 708 per million of the population. But Peru has done even worse at 1,008 per million of the population. So accepting the caveat that in developing countries it is difficult to social distance what's still interesting is that a country that had a real go at enforcing one of the strictest lockdowns in the world (and did so early) has fared worse than it's neighbour that has left the virus unchecked.

I'm not for one minute suggesting that we should do away with all restrictions, I'm merely making the point that lockdowns are not all that some people crack them up to be. As I said earlier there are many other factors that influence how different countries fare. Like Japan for example that has had very light restrictions and hardly any testing but has still got away with a very low number of deaths so far.

[Graham Breeze]

Well if you will wear that swish Rolex GB they'll see you coming!

When I had my house re-roofed the contractor turned up in his pick-up to give me a quote: but when he came for the cash (cough) after the work had been done it had turned into an E-Class Mercedes.

[Witton Park]

Like Japan for example that has had very light restrictions and hardly any testing but has still got away with a very low number of deaths so far.

Professor Tatsuhiko Kodama of Tokyo Uni has studied immune responses and has found responses in some of his Japanese examples are as if they have had prior exposure to the virus - probably from exposure to a similar virus.

Not sure if he's on to something, but it would explain a lot, because Japan has hardly had a Covid policy and a lot of elderly folk.

[Dave_Mole]

That timeline does confirm that Peru went into lockdown early, before the country had seen its first death in fact.

I would agree that there are social and economic factors in Peru that would make it comparisons with say Europe difficult. So let's compare with its next door neighbour Brazil, a country that has similar issues but has attracted a lot of criticism for its response to the pandemic. Indeed, last month you said "If you want to see what an unchecked virus looks like, have a look at Brazil."

According to Worldometer Brazil has to date suffered a death rate from Covid of 708 per million of the population. But Peru has done even worse at 1,008 per million of the population. So accepting the caveat that in developing countries it is difficult to social distance what's still interesting is that a country that had a real go at enforcing one of the strictest lockdowns in the world (and did so early) has fared worse than it's neighbour that has left the virus unchecked.

I'm not for one minute suggesting that we should do away with all restrictions, I'm merely making the point that lockdowns are not all that some people crack them up to be. As I said earlier there are many other factors that influence how different countries fare. Like Japan for example that has had very light restrictions and hardly any testing but has still got away with a very low number of deaths so far.

Poverty in Peru around 20%, in Brazil around 2% and their ecomomies are very different. Almost undeveloped in Peru, very developed in Brazil.

The inter country comparison thing has been gone over plenty on here and elsewhere, the conclusion largely being that there are too many variables, even between countries which share borders.

Someone is sure to trot out Japan as an example of something or other, I imagine.....

[Mike T]

A friend of my partner has just returned from a spell in Cornwall. She noticed a big difference in social distancing there - here it is the exception for it to happen without either asking or doing it yourself - there it was uncommon for others not to step out of the way, and also to turn their face/bodies away.

And it costs nothing.

I think a lot could have been done at the start in the way of public health messaging - and even now it might help.