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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #2931
    Master Muddy Retriever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    Haha as a 63 year old I’m somehow not reassured by that

    Although I do get outside a lot and should be packing a fair amount of vitamin D - I saw something the other day saying 80% of covid hospital admissions/ICU patients/deaths (I can’t remember which) had low vitamin D
    There seems to be mounting evidence that Vitamin D reduces the likelihood of contracting Covid and reducing the severity of it if you do get it. It has long been known to support the immune system and be effective against other respiratory infections.

    You probably were getting more than sufficient Vitamin D from the sun during the summer but not so much now at the end of October. I've been taking supplements for the past month.

    Years ago I used to see a podiatrist as I have arthritis in my big toe joints. It was always worse during the winter and he said this was down to the lack of Vitamin D from the sun. He was a big believer in supplements and suggested taking more than the standard dose (25 micrograms I think). He said it was difficult to overdose on Vitamin D and even if you did the side effects were minor.

  2. #2932
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave_Mole View Post

    Looks to me as though there is a local issue in the Blackburn area which isn't apparent elsewhere.
    Which raises the question: is it to do with ethnicity, or something else?
    It's apparent elsewhere.

    Leicester outside of London has the largest Asian ethnicity and was first in to 2nd lockdown and is still in Tier 2 almost 4 months later. But outside of Leicester is tier 1 and much lower rates.
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  3. #2933
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Leicester outside of London has the largest Asian ethnicity and was first in to 2nd lockdown and is still in Tier 2 almost 4 months later. But outside of Leicester is tier 1 and much lower rates.
    That's lumping all the areas of a large city together and doesn't take into account factors other than ethnicity. If you're arguing that areas with high levels of "Asian" ethnicity have higher levels of the virus (which you appear to be), then you need to look in more detail. It doesn't seem to apply Loughborough and Nottingham, it may or may not apply in Leicester, it seems to apply in Blackburn. So it's not everywhere and the point still stands.
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  4. #2934
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    Scaremongering b!*&+$s.

    "Around 1 in 100 people not in care homes, hospitals or other institutional settings in England would test positive for #COVID19 (at any given time between 17-23 Oct)"

    "During the most recent week, we estimate there were around 51,900 new #COVID19 infections per day in England"


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1322146442786578432

    So this is just for England, not the whole of the UK, and it excludes people in care homes, hospitals, and other institutional settings (and it relates to 17 to 23 October).

    "For England, the incidence rate continues to increase; during the most recent week (17 to 23 October 2020), we estimate there were around 9.52 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 7.06 to 14.53) in the community population in England, equating to around 51,900 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 38,500 to 79,200)."

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat.../30october2020

    See how they use phrases such as "credible interval" just to fool people into thinking that they might know what they're talking about. It's all a plot just to get Vallance off the hook. 51,900 for England is suspiciously close to Vallance's 50,000 for the UK. Coincidence? Yeah, right.

    Oh, yes, and apparently the rolling 7-day average of Covid-19 deaths is now 229.71. What utter nonsense. How can you possibly have 0.71 of a person? It's obviously just a made-up number, designed to heighten the fear among the public.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...t&country=~GBR

  5. #2935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flem View Post

    See how they use phrases such as "credible interval" just to fool people into thinking that they might know what they're talking about. It's all a plot just to get Vallance off the hook. 51,900 for England is suspiciously close to Vallance's 50,000 for the UK. Coincidence? Yeah, right.
    You do realise that you're comparing apples with pears don't you?

    Vallance was talking about doubling case numbers from positive test results. The 51,900 figure is the ONS's estimate of daily infections in England in the week 17th to 23rd October. This figure is always going to be higher than case numbers.

    So let's compare apples with apples. The nearest ONS infection survey pilot to the Whitty/Vallance presentation covers the week 13th to 19th September. It estimated that there were 9,600 new infections per day in England during that week.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...5september2020

    So let's double that figure every seven days as suggested by Vallance. This would take the number of infections per day to 307,200 by the week 17th to 23rd October. That's quite a bit more than the 51,900 the ONS is actually estimating.

  6. #2936
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    From the FT: how covid hospital admission rates are coming back:



    Edit. Having posted this I don’t fully understand the figures themselves but you can see the trend, which is the key thing. The trend right now is looking identical to the end of March’s trend
    Last edited by Fellbeast; 30-10-2020 at 04:20 PM.

  7. #2937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave_Mole View Post
    That's lumping all the areas of a large city together and doesn't take into account factors other than ethnicity. If you're arguing that areas with high levels of "Asian" ethnicity have higher levels of the virus (which you appear to be), then you need to look in more detail. It doesn't seem to apply Loughborough and Nottingham, it may or may not apply in Leicester, it seems to apply in Blackburn. So it's not everywhere and the point still stands.
    I don't think the point that "it isn't apparent elsewhere" does stands - as it is apparent elsewhere, but perhaps needs further investigation to see if it is specific areas within such cities.
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  8. #2938
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    There seems to be mounting evidence that Vitamin D reduces the likelihood of contracting Covid and reducing the severity of it if you do get it. It has long been known to support the immune system and be effective against other respiratory infections.

    You probably were getting more than sufficient Vitamin D from the sun during the summer but not so much now at the end of October. I've been taking supplements for the past month.

    Years ago I used to see a podiatrist as I have arthritis in my big toe joints. It was always worse during the winter and he said this was down to the lack of Vitamin D from the sun. He was a big believer in supplements and suggested taking more than the standard dose (25 micrograms I think). He said it was difficult to overdose on Vitamin D and even if you did the side effects were minor.
    Is a good Vitamin D level just a lifestyle marker - of a good diet (oily fish, mushrooms) and sunshine exposure from outdoors exercise, in other words are we looking at association rather than causation.
    Vitamin D does increase calcium absorption, and there are concerns re kidney stones and vascular calcification if excessive supplements are taken. Don't take more than 10 micrograms/400 international units except under medical supervision.

  9. #2939
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    I don't think the point that "it isn't apparent elsewhere" does stands - as it is apparent elsewhere, but perhaps needs further investigation to see if it is specific areas within such cities.
    how very unlike you to miss the point.

    You're trying to link high levels of virus with "Asian" communities (you've also said "Muslim"). From the information you've shown that may be the case in Blackburn. In at least two other cities with ethnically diverse populations there does not seem to be a link and you have asserted that it is the case in Leicester, without supporting that claim with any evidence. The city does not appear on the "Top 30 MSOAs" chart (although Loughborough does: the area containing the University being high up the list).

    So the point is: an outbreak may be associated with the "Asian" community in Blackburn, but correlation isn't causality. It doesn't seem to be the case elsewhere. So it might be a regional thing and isn't easily extrapolated across to all "Asian" communities.
    Last edited by Dave_Mole; 30-10-2020 at 06:34 PM.
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  10. #2940
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    [QUOTE=Dave_Mole;668746](you've also said "Muslim").

    WP. Get straight upstairs to bed without any tea!
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