Coronavirus

[Dave_Mole]

This is rather a light-hearted question, so please don't read anything into it... but i do wonder the correlation between people living in "nice" parts of the country, and their corresponding views on national lockdowns and travel restrictions!!

I pointed similar out on the facebook page around the time of the initial lockdown... a few Welsh and Lake District residents did appear to be revelling in their location and telling everyone else that it was "tough luck" if they didn't have any mountains to enjoy... i jokingly pointed out that perhaps they shouldn't be allowed into the nearest large town or city to make use of the facilities...

As you can imagine, it din't go down too well

quite.
I live in a nice place: it's a small town with lots of green space and people, on the whole, are sensible and there's a good sense of community. Last lockdown wasn't too bad: people did panic shop a bit, but things were tolerable. Not sure it would have been the same for me if I was in social housing in Manchester or Birmingham, though.

[Muddy Retriever]

The message being given seems implausible. Is there anyone who doesn't have a concern over the PM/Whitty/Vallance presentation on Saturday?

Already today the chart showing deaths at mid range 4,000 per day is being pulled apart and seems to have been a forecast made a few weeks ago that is already out by a factor of around 5 times and revised downwards on the 28th.

I read about that earlier too. This is the article from Carl Heneghan for those interested. The 4,000 "scenario" shows deaths on 1st November already being around 1,000. The actual seven day average yesterday was 260.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-in...e-sage-models/

[Mike T]

I read about that earlier too. This is the article from Carl Heneghan for those interested. The 4,000 "scenario" shows deaths on 1st November already being around 1,000. The actual seven day average yesterday was 260.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-in...e-sage-models/

There are 4 different estimate curves - 2 about 200/day, 1 about 550/day, and 1 about 950/day - about as it is very unclear what the actual figures are - the numbers are for deaths per day on the 1st of November.
What is clear is that the NHS is struggling to cope both with its normal workload and with Covid, and it will get rather worse before it gets better, despite the lockdown, which for some reason, has yet to start.

[Witton Park]

Winter Scenarios 2.jpg

If you check out the chart Mike the 4 "scenarios" set out have mid range peaks of 1800 to 4000 a day.

The 4000 one is the one that had us being at over a 1000 a day now which has apparently been revised on 28/10 to about a 1000 a day peak.

Absolutely that is still high - if you think there is any mileage in it.

But why present the chart showing the highest and most outlandish scenario when it had already shown itself to be out by a huge margin, and been revised?

What little credibility they have left is being lost every time they do something like this.

Based on the 4 scenarios, Richard on Twitter has started tracking against them.

https://www3.royalmail.com/track-your-item#/

The reality is already tracking below the 3 worst of the 4 scenarios and with cases now flattening or dropping in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland based on 7 day average, we should not be seeing rising deaths and pressure should reduce regardless of the measures coming in on Thursday.
I suspect the lower of the 4 scenarios will also start to diverge from the actual figures in the next 1-2 weeks.

Liverpool dropping, Manchester dropping, Rossendale's figures dropping dramatically and even Blackburn is.

[Fellbeast]

So...can we Conservatives rely on your vote in the next election?

Haha nope. I will vote green or Lib Dem or labour for as long as it takes until one day we’ll get proportional representation and the conservatives will never get in ever again 😊

[Mark G]

quite.
I live in a nice place: it's a small town with lots of green space and people, on the whole, are sensible and there's a good sense of community. Last lockdown wasn't too bad: people did panic shop a bit, but things were tolerable. Not sure it would have been the same for me if I was in social housing in Manchester or Birmingham, though.

I'm also lucky enough to live somewhere I like with good access to lots of running and cycling. I chose to live there but did so with my eyes open. So if you need an ambulance you need to accept that you might have a long wait - (I have twice had to call in an emergency for other people, it took about 90 minutes each time). You might not see a police patrol very often and will almost certainly have a delay if you need to call them. Your broadband might not work, your bus service will be poor and very expensive. You almost certainly won't be able to go to the cinema or a cafe without a car journey or a bike ride. But to me the access to the countryside makes all that worthwhile. Those 'sacrifices' are a trade off. The upside is that I can run to the summit of High Street from home or be in the Howgills in 45 minutes on my bike. So some of us do have privileged access to the countryside but we make life choices that to us at least, are a worthwhile compromise.

[Fellbeast]

But witton you do understand what ‘worst case scenario’ means don’t you? You know, the scenario that might be considered the worst? Obviously worst case estimates are always going to look bad - the Americans prior to d-day estimated as many as 13% of their troops might drown and an overall 25% casualty rate for d- day. The British expected 10,000 casualties out of 70,000 troops, that’s expected and not worst case. They thought that 75% of all paratroopers might be casualties. And they still went ahead with it all and things weren’t nearly so bad fortunately.

But if you’re planning for something you obviously need to plan for the worst case otherwise, like Cameron with the brexit referendum, you’re left looking like a complete idiot and end up causing untold damage to the country through basic simple stupidity

[Dave_Mole]

we should not be seeing rising deaths and pressure should reduce regardless of the measures coming in on Thursday.

certainly looks like the trend....
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[Muddy Retriever]

But witton you do understand what ‘worst case scenario’ means don’t you? You know, the scenario that might be considered the worst? Obviously worst case estimates are always going to look bad - the Americans prior to d-day estimated as many as 13% of their troops might drown and an overall 25% casualty rate for d- day. The British expected 10,000 casualties out of 70,000 troops, that’s expected and not worst case. They thought that 75% of all paratroopers might be casualties. And they still went ahead with it all and things weren’t nearly so bad fortunately.

But if you’re planning for something you obviously need to plan for the worst case otherwise, like Cameron with the brexit referendum, you’re left looking like a complete idiot and end up causing untold damage to the country through basic simple stupidity

Fair enough but why present something that is already a long way wrong?

[Travs]

So some of us do have privileged access to the countryside but we make life choices that to us at least, are a worthwhile compromise.

Which is why i will very likely be heading in your vague direction soon!