Attachment 8847
If you check out the chart Mike the 4 "scenarios" set out have mid range peaks of 1800 to 4000 a day.
The 4000 one is the one that had us being at over a 1000 a day now which has apparently been revised on 28/10 to about a 1000 a day peak.
Absolutely that is still high - if you think there is any mileage in it.
But why present the chart showing the highest and most outlandish scenario when it had already shown itself to be out by a huge margin, and been revised?
What little credibility they have left is being lost every time they do something like this.
Based on the 4 scenarios, Richard on Twitter has started tracking against them.
https://www3.royalmail.com/track-your-item#/
The reality is already tracking below the 3 worst of the 4 scenarios and with cases now flattening or dropping in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland based on 7 day average, we should not be seeing rising deaths and pressure should reduce regardless of the measures coming in on Thursday.
I suspect the lower of the 4 scenarios will also start to diverge from the actual figures in the next 1-2 weeks.
Liverpool dropping, Manchester dropping, Rossendale's figures dropping dramatically and even Blackburn is.