Page 307 of 357 FirstFirst ... 207257297305306307308309317 ... LastLast
Results 3,061 to 3,070 of 3570

Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #3061
    Master
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Ambleside
    Posts
    5,473
    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Attachment 8847

    If you check out the chart Mike the 4 "scenarios" set out have mid range peaks of 1800 to 4000 a day.

    The 4000 one is the one that had us being at over a 1000 a day now which has apparently been revised on 28/10 to about a 1000 a day peak.

    Absolutely that is still high - if you think there is any mileage in it.

    But why present the chart showing the highest and most outlandish scenario when it had already shown itself to be out by a huge margin, and been revised?

    What little credibility they have left is being lost every time they do something like this.

    Based on the 4 scenarios, Richard on Twitter has started tracking against them.

    https://www3.royalmail.com/track-your-item#/

    The reality is already tracking below the 3 worst of the 4 scenarios and with cases now flattening or dropping in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland based on 7 day average, we should not be seeing rising deaths and pressure should reduce regardless of the measures coming in on Thursday.
    I suspect the lower of the 4 scenarios will also start to diverge from the actual figures in the next 1-2 weeks.

    Liverpool dropping, Manchester dropping, Rossendale's figures dropping dramatically and even Blackburn is.
    The peaks are clearly higher than what each curve predicted for the 1st of November. I would hope all turn out to be be overestimates as of course we are acting to change the outcome. The projection that people mocked last time turned out to be pretty accurate. People under estimate exponential growth, and many think an R of 1.1, because it is lower than it was, is "good".

  2. #3062
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    the Moon
    Posts
    1,287
    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post

    I don't think your Track and Trace system complies with government guidelines.
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  3. #3063
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Blackburn
    Posts
    8,793
    Sorry for the wrong link

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/132...337600/photo/1

    Here is Richard on Twitter's comparison to the 4 scenarios. Only No4 is near at the moment.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  4. #3064
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Blackburn
    Posts
    8,793
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    The projection that people mocked last time turned out to be pretty accurate.
    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/132...347521/photo/1

    Richard's tracker against the Vallance projection is so far out, the graph would have to be about 10 times higher to see how far out it is.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  5. #3065
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    the Moon
    Posts
    1,287
    ...and further down the same Twitter thread....

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El1K_cBX...png&name=small
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  6. #3066
    Moderator noel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Western Peak District
    Posts
    6,238
    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/132...347521/photo/1

    Richard's tracker against the Vallance projection is so far out, the graph would have to be about 10 times higher to see how far out it is.
    Interesting. I didn't watch the press conference, so may not be in the best place to comment here, but (that doesn't normally stop me)...

    Could it be that the conversation went something like:
    Scientists: You really will have to do some sort of lock-down
    Politicians: OK we agree, but people won't believe us unless we scare them a bit. Can you show them that graph you showed us last week?
    Scientists: But that's already out of date and it's not tracking any more
    Politicians: That doesn't matter, no-one will look at the details. We just need a headline of 4000 a day, then we can justify the lock-down

  7. #3067
    Master
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Ambleside
    Posts
    5,473
    ONS 50,000 daily cases in mid-October, REACT 100,000 cases - estimates, sure, but the W V projection was pretty good - despite action to try and lessen the numbers.

    And how many deaths/cases are people happy with - surely we do not want more than the NHS can reasonably cope with?

  8. #3068
    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    Interesting. I didn't watch the press conference, so may not be in the best place to comment here, but (that doesn't normally stop me)...

    Could it be that the conversation went something like:
    Scientists: You really will have to do some sort of lock-down
    Politicians: OK we agree, but people won't believe us unless we scare them a bit. Can you show them that graph you showed us last week?
    Scientists: But that's already out of date and it's not tracking any more
    Politicians: That doesn't matter, no-one will look at the details. We just need a headline of 4000 a day, then we can justify the lock-down
    Well...faced with confusing data from which it is difficult to draw a robust conclusion it is much easier to decide a course of action and then publish the data to support it.

    It's the approach a Labour Government might adopt in starting a war.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  9. #3069
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    the Moon
    Posts
    1,287

  10. #3070
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2020
    Posts
    709
    I know it’s the main published figure but everyone keeps referring to daily new cases figure for those that have tested positive. Remember that this is just the cases where people have actually got a test done and got a result back and totally ignores those not getting tests done for whatever reason. The ZOE symptom checker app is predicting 42,276 new cases today - see here and join up while you’re at it -> https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    By the by 42,276 is trending down just a bit on what’s its been for a while

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •