https://sites.google.com/site/florin...wisseconomists
The third paragraph says it all.
https://sites.google.com/site/florin...wisseconomists
The third paragraph says it all.
that's been said for a while now. Here's an article from June:Originally Posted by Mike T
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...alse-trade-off
there are plenty of others pointing to the false dichotomy between the economy or people.
....it's all downhill from here.
I've realised I was actually being too kind to PHE/Cambridge University. I said that the seven day average on 1st November was 260 but of course their projection related only to England so the actual seven day average on that date was 217. So the 1,000 forecast was nearer five times as much as the actual figure.
Vallance and Witty have been criticised (rightly) for using figures in their presentation that were already massively wrong. But I started wondering how PHE/Cambridge could have got to their forecast of 1,000 deaths by 1st November in the first place. I've read that the forecast was drawn up on 9th October. So given the average time lag between confirmed infection and death is thought to be around three weeks give or take a day or two, you could probably take infections that had already occurred at around 9th October to predict death figures for the end of the month.
Average case figures for the seven days to 9th October in England were around 13,000. Of course that is an understatement. The ONS survey for the week to 8th October suggested 27,900 infections a day. So 1,000 deaths equates to an IFR of 3.5%!!
The time lag might not be quite accurate and there may have been more infections than 27,900 but even so. Who is crunching their numbers? Perhaps it was a joint effort between Neil Ferguson and Diane Abbott. I wondered where she'd got to.
Nigel Farage was very much in favour of lockdown and closing off flights from many deeply affected countries far before our government reacted. The virus was new then. His position has changed based upon his experience and understanding of Covid and lockdowns.
Mike-T would say let them go bust, not needed. Same bracket as coffee shops and leisure centres.
Come on Mike-T why all of a sudden developing an economic conscience?
For: Lockdown,
Magic money tree,
NHS investment
Vaccinations
Queues at stiles
Against: Businesses going bust,
Excess deaths
Brexit
GPS used to navigate in races
Last edited by Mike T; 04-11-2020 at 06:38 AM.
I've had a quick read through the new restrictions ( https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/...0201200_en.pdf ) and can't find any reference to travel to and from exercise. Such as distance allowed etc., what might be considered reasonable, and such. Anyone any info. on this?
Am Yisrael Chai
Just Wales out of bounds by the looks of it. Bugger.
Visibility good except in Hill Fog
From the BBC: Nine ways England's lockdown is different from March:
The new lockdown guidance says "you can and should still travel to... spend time or exercise outdoors. This should be done locally wherever possible, but you can travel to do so if necessary".
Only essential travel was permitted in the spring, but this was open to interpretation, with one police force criticised for sharing drone footage of ramblers online.
