Coronavirus

[Dave_Mole]

"if the test is positive, then they have got it"
is bogus. I'm sorry Mike, but that is just not right.

try arguing with that supposed logic.
As for the arrogance of suggesting how the NHS should run its admissions system

[Mike T]

Here's my expectation.

Patient admitted and given a test.

That patient shouldn't be a covid admission without a confirmed test, so 48 hours in or whenever. Fine to treat them as with covid at first, but not to record them as such because once they are in as Covid, they will not be removed and it will distort the figures.

Then that patient should be retested again to confirm the first test.

That double test along with a doctor's diagnosis would give confidence to the "covid admission" label.

If they are admitted with symptoms, then there is perhaps a very good chance. But you want all admissions testing (and I agree) but if you test someone admitted with a kidney infection....

"if the test is positive, then they have got it"

is bogus. I'm sorry Mike, but that is just not right.

As far as what's "common" and "very uncommon" I can't see what you have to go off in order to make that assertion.

If False negatives are 20% and False Positives are 1% then they could be equally as common in a hospital setting and the False Positive will be far more common in a non-hospital setting such as the Pillar 2 testing and more common in non-respiratory admissions.

I'd also like to see "Covid Discharge" recorded.

Covid admissions = Covid discharges + covid deaths.

The stats constantly tell us the rate of admissions are on the increase, but an analysis the other day, I think of Liverpools hospitals, showed that discharges were actually higher than admissions and the pressure that has built up is now reducing.

Every admission should be regarded as having Covid until that has been excluded. It does not mean they will be counted as a Covid case forever more. It depends on their symptoms/signs/test results, just like all diagnoses.

The Covid test, if positive, is one of the most accurate tests in Medicine. Far more accurate than almost any other test we do.

Deaths per fortnight within 28 days of a positive test have gone from 113 (28th August - 10th September) to 2,996 in the last fortnight. This is serious. This is real. There are the equivalent of 22 District General Hospitals full of nothing but Covid in the NHS as a whole.

[Witton Park]

There are the equivalent of 22 District General Hospitals full of nothing but Covid in the NHS as a whole.

Nice stat Mike - plagiarising a stat described by many as unhelpful. That leaves maybe 400+ without any Covid.

[Dave_Mole]

plagiarising a stat described by many as unhelpful. .

Like who?

[Mike T]

Nice stat Mike - plagiarising a stat described by many as unhelpful. That leaves maybe 400+ without any Covid.

I have been expressing the numbers this way to my partner for weeks - she said it should be expressed like this more often - then yesterday it was used by the experts for the first time, or at least that was the first time I heard it used by others. I did not plagiarise it. But if I did repeat facts expressed in particular way, would that be wrong? Surely it is the facts that matter.

[Dave_Mole]

Surely it is the facts that matter.

Only if they suit.
Like cases falling in Liverpool. Which they are, which might indicate that local lockdown is working to some degree. But the nuance is that they're not falling among the most vulnerable. So falling numbers do not necessarily equate to everything being OK and returning to normal:

"Compared to the previous week, we have seen a slight decrease in rates of new infections in the city, however the current 7-day rate remains very high. The rate of new infections in older people is particularly worrying at the current very high level, resulting in increased pressure on hospitals and deaths from Covid-19 for weeks to come"
https://liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases

[Witton Park]

Maybe they plagiarised you Mike - apologies.

But they are presenting figures that are exaggerated, misleading and without or out of context.

Such as this one they put out there, which cropped down created an impression that wasn't representative.

Heatmap reduced.jpg

[Muddy Retriever]

Like cases falling in Liverpool. Which they are, which might indicate that local lockdown is working to some degree. But the nuance is that they're not falling among the most vulnerable. So falling numbers do not necessarily equate to everything being OK and returning to normal:

Cases in over 60's in Liverpool are falling.

https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/sta...40799712694273

Witty had implied they weren't falling in the over 60's in Liverpool then later had to admit they were.

https://twitter.com/sarahknapton/sta...89821220704256

[Witton Park]

Cases in over 60's in Liverpool are falling.

https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/sta...40799712694273

Witty had implied they weren't falling in the over 60's in Liverpool then later had to admit they were.

https://twitter.com/sarahknapton/sta...89821220704256

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ss-first-wave/

and they've just revised their forecasts; sorry scenarios on which they presented the lockdown at the weekend.

Whitty and Vallance "Blah, Blah, Blah......"

Some "That's wrong because......."

Others "Who are you to question......."


Whitty and Vallance "Oh yes it was wrong, never mind here is the updated version, too late now, decision has been taken, blah, blah, blah...."

[Witton Park]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54...sTDqOKI_tFq1hM

Seems the UK Statistics Authority agrees.