Coronavirus

[Witton Park]

I’m still not getting the point you’re trying to make Witton. All you’ve effectively shown is that lockdowns suppress the virus, a lack of them doesn’t and something restrictiony in between suppresses it a bit. We already know that thanks

Sweden suppressed the virus with measures lighter than our Tier 1.
As Muddy said earlier, the lockdown might have affected the rate of decline, but it's a bit like debating the best route from CP3-CP4 at Sedbergh Hills. You end up in the same place in the end.

I'm not saying lockdowns supress the virus, I'm saying the natural cycle of the virus in the community supressed the virus and the effect of the lockdown on the virus was minimal.

[Witton Park]

As far as the debate on 4 weeks or not goes, Vallance used 4 weeks when he did his 50k Cases presentation in September. That was 4 weeks from a positive test, which doesn't factor in the incubation period thought to be 2-20 days.
Hence (I assume) they have stuck to the 14 days quarantine despite spinning for a while that they might cut it to 7-10 days.
We are talking averages remember.

[Travs]

Sweden suppressed the virus with measures lighter than our Tier 1.
As Muddy said earlier, the lockdown might have affected the rate of decline, but it's a bit like debating the best route from CP3-CP4 at Sedbergh Hills. You end up in the same place in the end.

I'm not saying lockdowns supress the virus, I'm saying the natural cycle of the virus in the community supressed the virus and the effect of the lockdown on the virus was minimal.

Now there's a proper debate...!

Although i'd contest that not everyone gets there in the end... it was chaos the year i did it in zero visibility... i think some runners are still out there now...

[Witton Park]

Now there's a proper debate...!

Although i'd contest that not everyone gets there in the end... it was chaos the year i did it in zero visibility... i think some runners are still out there now...

Love the race - just hope I can get myself to the level where I can put myself through it again

[Witton Park]

Lockdown 1.0 – Following the Science?
BBC 2 tonight.

Apparently SAGE used Wikipedia to gather data early in the pandemic.

Bit rebellious of the BBC!

[Witton Park]

Liverpool.jpg

Noel - just seen this chart for Liverpool, so checked when they went in Tier 3. They were the first to be put in a Tier on 14th October.

So you see, it was already dropping.

Also note there is no discernible steepening in the rate of the drop. If anything there's been a little uptick.

So what effect has the Tier 3 had and what effect has the full lockdown had?

[noel]

I'm saying the natural cycle of the virus in the community supressed the virus and the effect of the lockdown on the virus was minimal.

WP, Are you becoming a "lock-down denier"?

[noel]

Liverpool.jpgNoel - just seen this chart for Liverpool, so checked when they went in Tier 3.

Thanks WP. Interesting indeed. So my interpretation of this is that whatever tier of restrictions they were in prior to entering tier 3 was working. Do you agree? It would be useful to see a graphs of when the previous tier was introduced.

I think we're not at opposite ends of this debate. If it can be shown that less draconian lock-downs work, we should use them. I think the powers that be are taking a cautious approach having acted too late last time. Personally, I welcome this approach, but any data to support that "lock-down light" works, would obviously benefit everyone.

[Wetherby whaler]

Nothing wrong with a bit of scepticism, scepticism is not denial. Any figures put up to support any viewpoint should be always be open to challenge.

[Mike T]

Today's numbers -

501 deaths [5,655 in the last 14 days]
16,409 in hospital
1,430 on ventilation
22,915 tested positive
330,059 cases in 14 days
53,775 deaths within 28 days +ve test
63,873 with COVID-19 on the death certificate.

were read out on the BBC News in less than a minute, and with far less interest than is associated with the weather report.

We have become numb to this ongoing disaster.