Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
Indeed. The assumptions/calculation approach used for WP’s scenarios aligns with the logic presented in the BBC article, so the experts the BBC consult with must know what they’re talking about after all...
as I've said, the problem with the BBC article then goes on to present a scenario that isn't what was happening out there in the real world.
If you recall, mid September the Govt had a problem with the testing system breaking down. People were just being tested, no symptoms, apparently over-loading the system.
We know they were mass testing schools and universities.
So the premise that false positives is an issue, but actually it isn't because only people likely to have covid are being tested, is where the BBC have strayed beyond where they reasonably should, suggesting they have a narrative.
They have been testing up to 395,000 a day - you think 395k a day have COVID symptoms?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Here is the graph showing the number of PCR tests done.
Does that look in line with symptoms in the public?
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
Good question. I've no frame of reference here. Clearly this many people don't have covid. Although, I suspect a lot of people have respiratory symptoms at this time of year with various colds/flu so might be worried they do have it. Do we have any data on how many people are being routinely tested (ie, without symptoms)?
Further to our ongoing discussion about the effects of false positives (and negatives), it's important to know whether people who are being tested have symptoms or not, since that affects how you interpret the data.
From personal experience, people in the ONS screening study (like me) are included in these figures. And I've been tested about 6 times now without having any covid symptoms.
https://www.blackburnbid.co.uk/covidtesting/
Scroll down to "About the mobile testing unit"
"Anyone can be tested – you don’t need to have symptoms of coronavirus."
14th July.
This was going on through to mid September. It was certainly happening in the areas that were in special measures which was most of the North and large chunks of the Midlands.
In mid September when they started hitting the Universities, they ran out of tests and all of a sudden started to back pedal and ask for only those with symptoms.
In Blackburn I think that was 14th September. There was on day where the posted a Come on Down, everyone welcome and by the end of the day they had a "only with symptoms".
By switching to students, the testing of asymptomatic has been extended at the very least from July to October and should be cause for concern.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
From Chris Giles, FT, with the last sentence from Owen Jones, The Guardian:
"A cautious estimate of the number of excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus since mid march has passed a new marker and stands at 80,100 Of these 75,200 have happened and the rest are estimates bringing lagged official data up to date When measured properly, it is clear that the second wave has been far less deadly than the first. My estimates suggest that excess deaths are now beginning to decline.
Why should you believe these numbers? a) Because the updating model is proving remarkably accurate in the second wave (I'm surprised how accurate) b) This welcome feature stems from better Covid testing, so daily hospital deaths pick up roughly all excess deaths this time.
FWIW - an extremely speculative estimate of the R number based on my excess deaths series suggests it was hovering around 1 just before lockdown and persistently went below 1 after Nov 2nd start of lockdown.
"That means around 1 in every 832 Britons have so far died in the coronavirus pandemic, a hideous death toll made possible by a government which locked down too late and re-opened the economy without a functioning Test and Trace system."
In normal times, 1 in 132 Britons die every year....a hideous death toll made possible by Life, a sexually transmitted, universally fatal disease!
Simon Blease
Monmouth
And yeah every year everyone tries there hardest to stop people dying, help cure them or advise them on best practice to reduce the chance of dying. Think of all the effort and research that goes into and has gone into cancer research. And every other illness and ailment. Are you suggesting we just don’t bother with covid?
Presumably 80,000 dead (so far) is acceptable? You know compared to just over 900 deaths in Australia and just over 500 in South Korea?