was it the mighty Oracle who made the point about the tests being inaccurate...?
My sister-in-law's grandad is in hospital with suspected Corona... to be more precise, he's unconscious and not likely to ever wake again.
They did a test on him which came back negative... but the doctors have said in light of the x-rays and observations, that the test is wrong and he's almost definitely got Corona...
So even the NHS are doubting the accuracy and disregarding the tests completely!
That is indeed the problem with testing - validation. The problem is , where do you get a test set from? Since Covid can be assymptomatic in a significant percentage, and not all symptomatic cases were COVID, even the best of the tests can only do 80 percent, and that is not good enough for control. "have you had it tests" are even harder and less reliable than "have you got it tests"Originally Posted by Travs
We aint seen nothing yet: Vaccines are a massive problem. How do you test a vaccine? To test for antibody, has all the same problems of an unknown control group, so testing a vaccine by searching for antibodies, has all the vagaries of testing generally.
To do an active control study would involve exposing some deliberately to COVID. And to have a control for that, some would have to have placebo. No regulatory agency will allow deliberate exposure in a healthy population to a potentially fatal condition without defences. I doubt they will make an exception for COVID. Not if they want to avoid the mother of all law suits.
So vaccines are tested by passive control study. One population with vaccine, a test and balanced population without it, and then allow nature not active exposure to expose some, which for valid statistics needs a long time and lots of people. A very long time. Anything that goes in a healthy population has to pass an incredibly high bar for safety, so particularly in US has to be across every age, race, and condition. The mantra "first do no harm" prevails. It is incredibly expensive and time taking.
Sometimes orphan drugs are allowed through on the nod. If it is going into a dying population and might save a few lives, the safety bar is a lot lower. A vaccine by definition goes into healthy people.
No doubt the press will be saying , you have a vaccine why have you not distributed it? A year is a short time. OH worked in a major vaccine manufacturer for years.
OH has been in similar business for many years, indeed is one of the few to have actually worked on smallpox! and other grade 4 pathogens.Remember that?
OH biggest frustration is yet another prof saying
"we have a miracle cure for XYZ"
General reaction is "oh no, not again:it really is not worth bothering with university profs inventions" because in Reality is in most cases, 1/ they have not controlled or characterised the product properly, so they have no idea what is in it or the impurities (to regulatory standard) , 2/ they have not controlled the cell lines or this case viral lines and 3/ They have not controlled the test set. So the outcome is a hunch and a lottery. A statistical anomaly not a proof.
So OH has to go back to the start, characterise it all including cell lines, products , and test sets, (including gene mapping - OH was one of the first in UK doing that for virus! ditto monoclonals) and generally concludes £10M later that there was no product and it was statistical nonsense. For sure, academia is getting a bit better in understanding regulatory stuff, but it is still a lottery.
Reality there are few eureka moments in pharma, it is a painstaikingly slow process inside companies who understand not only the biotechnology but also regulatory procedure. It is why successful drugs cost such a lot of money,generally take 7 years!!!!!!! to get through regulatory and are more or less uneconomic because of the short patent life, and the stupidity of socialist rhetoric on dose costs.
And at the end of it all, pharma is treated as the devil incarnate, the medics who hand out the products and use them when already validated are treated as Gods, and remunerated far better And are actually taking little risk Unlike the developers!. There is no justice.
Sadly Public health england has refused to act responsibly by engaging the private sector. Many private sector have been actively rebuffed. The Government will get the blame for the stuck up civil servants, fighting a petty war against "privatization"
It has stolen OH company PCR machines, but given a cold shoulder to the expertise which is what they really needs. I have no doubt their "diversity officers" and much of the organisation is world class. At wasting money.
Last edited by Oracle; 23-04-2020 at 12:21 AM.
Very, very true. And sadly, completely beyond the understanding of the person in the street or the media wonks. Even more sadly probably also beyond the grasp of most politicians!
There is no prospect of magic bullet test or vaccine in the immediate future. There might be a fortuitous discovery of effective treatment from already existing agents. But that is only for people who have the illness. Ergo, lockdown is a busted flush. We cannot keep it up without the cost of other disease fatalities far outstripping covid deaths.
We are in for a grisly future whichever route we choose. So don't kick the politicians. None of this is actually their fault!
Oracle Post #372 "like"
Wheeze Post #373 "like"
I actually sense lockdown is being gently done already without an announcement.
Since weekend noticed a lack of cops racing around the roads with sirens going, which seemed to be for no reason other than to show a presence.
The Council have also now re-opened Witton Park this morning to cars, as well as the cemetery.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
Well given a choice between a rock and a hard place - the political question will be "which approach will get me re-elected?" - would you not say Mr Trump?
Last edited by Graham Breeze; 23-04-2020 at 09:13 AM.
"...as dry as the Atacama desert".
Why does uk only publish hospital deaths from the virus?
When
France combines there's with care homes as well.
Are we as bad as China for artificially distorting the figures?
France are claimed to be in the top 4 for deaths but I suspect that they are lower than us truth be known.
Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council set up a tribute to the NHS this week.
It's the size of half a football pitch, in the lower area of Witton and painted on teh grass by groundstaff.
It was done on Wednesday and when I passed yesterday around 3:00pm at the back end of my walk, there was a throng of "staff" readying themselves for later.
Fireworks went of at around 6:15, perhaps for regional TV news although it would have needed some drone footage to show it off, and again we had fireworks at 8:00pm.
Today we have this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52395398
Coronavirus: Councils warn government bailout cash 'gone now'
Perhaps they could have used it more wisely.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
We keep being told that the NHS is close to collapse and that staff are under immense pressure, which I am sure many are. But many seem to have time to be able to make stupid videos of themselves, no doubt hoping to get their 15 minutes of fame on the BBC.
I may be the only one, but I am getting fed up with celebrities, has been's and wannabees being on TV from their kitchens/lounges just about every time I turn it on. And I only turn it on twice a day.
Can these people not stop themselves!
Visibility good except in Hill Fog
Don't watch the bbc🤣👍
It's not just the BBC though, it's everywhere.
I wonder how long before people start rebelling...
Can't turn the tv or radio on without somebody telling us to stay at home... unless it's 8pm on a Thursday you can all gather together in central London... police chiefs, paramedics, public...
People are just going to think well if they can directly disregard the advice then why can't I go to the park...
I ran in the town park today... at least 5 people running together in a group... and a couple of guys doing football training together.
