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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #471
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    With respect Mike, you are obliged to treat patients with unknown cause from Far Eastern viruses , to hepatitis, hiv, anthrax, sarin, chemical toxins , radiation, Ebola, you name it, and epidemics of any or all the above. Worse still a nuclear accident. There is inevitably substantively increased risk, some that can overwhelm supplies.
    It’s an occupational hazard.

    Farming, Construction, mining , logging and fishery workers all have substantially increased risk. It’s an occupational hazard for them too.

    I’ve seen scores of reports from responsible personnel in various health authorities saying the situation is fine . A documentary would interview all of those too, to discover the pattern. They would Not just choose those activists with an axe to grind.


    So I get the impression you have less interest in the true state of affairs than taking yet another pop at the government.

    Whatever the true state is. Like Brexit, vs remain, you won’t get it from get BBC

    The BBC was completely in breach of its own code of conduct to disclose relevant affiliations of speakers. For that alone it is in clear breach of duty.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    The risks to NHS and Care staff are not yet clear. I certainly did not sign up to put my life, and that of my family and friends, at "substantially greater risk".

    As to the competence or otherwise of this Goverment's PPE procurements, we will have to agree to disagree. As the BBC rebuttal says, none of the revelations were from the staff interviewed. Just because you are a Labour supporter does not mean you cannot have inadequate PPE.
    Last edited by Oracle; 29-04-2020 at 09:40 PM.

  2. #472
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    So Panorama was wrong?
    It was certainly full of Labour activists that Panorama somehow forgot to mention. I’m sure the Government has made mistakes but that is hardly surprising in this unprecedented situation. The inflexible bureaucratic centralised nature of the NHS seems to be more to blame for the failures as far as I can see. E.g. it’s failure to procure the services of the UK’s private sector when it was crying out to help in terms of testing and PPE.

    As for the BBC, it has clearly abandoned any pretence of impartiality.

  3. #473
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    Quote Originally Posted by Travs View Post
    Construction industry is taking off again... our main client opening their sites later this week... we have been told to expect "return to work" notice to follow sooner rather than later (although i'm in my first week of furlough so have another two mandatory weeks before i can go back).

    Encouraging signs (although completely acknowledge that the construction industry is a government priority).
    Glad to hear it! Hopefully building supplies and such as window factories will open too. I needs some!
    The cost of continued shutdown will be devastating.

  4. #474
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Glad to hear it! Hopefully building supplies and such as window factories will open too. I needs some!
    The cost of continued shutdown will be devastating.
    As will be the cost to Human life if the easing of restrictions is misjudged.

    Congratulations to Boris and Carrie on the birth of there son
    The older I get the Faster I was

  5. #475
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    With respect Mike, you are obliged to treat patients with unknown cause from Far Eastern viruses , to hepatitis, hiv, anthrax, sarin, chemical toxins , radiation, Ebola, you name it, and epidemics of any or all the above. Worse still a nuclear accident. There is inevitably substantively increased risk, some that can overwhelm supplies.
    It’s an occupational hazard.

    Farming, Construction, mining , logging and fishery workers all have substantially increased risk. It’s an occupational hazard for them too.

    I’ve seen scores of reports from responsible personnel in various health authorities saying the situation is fine . A documentary would interview all of those too, to discover the pattern. They would Not just choose those activists with an axe to grind.


    So I get the impression you have less interest in the true state of affairs than taking yet another pop at the government.

    Whatever the true state is. Like Brexit, vs remain, you won’t get it from get BBC

    The BBC was completely in breach of its own code of conduct to disclose relevant affiliations of speakers. For that alone it is in clear breach of duty.
    Sure, NHS staff sign up to help/treat those with infectious diseases, but not with inadequate PPE. Dinner ladies' aprons, home made visors and masks, re-used kit.

    As to taking "pops" at the Government - we are going to end up with the worst number of deaths in Europe, and probably the world when adjusted for population. They deserve a few pops.

    One of the problems with looking at the rate of infection in NHS/Care staff compared to the general population is that when they become infected, they then go on and infect family/friends/neighbours/other key workers, thus diluting the rate. A lot of the infections in the general public will have started in hospitals/care homes. People in care homes have suffered badly - sending patients from hospitals to care homes without testing was a huge mistake.
    The defence that all this is unprecedented does not work - it was predicted.

  6. #476
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnK View Post
    As will be the cost to Human life if the easing of restrictions is misjudged.

    Congratulations to Boris and Carrie on the birth of there son
    How will we know the effect of easing the restrictions? By the change in the number of deaths. Grim.

  7. #477
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    As to taking "pops" at the Government - we are going to end up with the worst number of deaths in Europe, and probably the world when adjusted for population. They deserve a few pops.
    We have a way to go to match Belgium on deaths per million, but it's hardly a competition and in the end, excess death comparisons will be the most accurate measure.

    Have you considered that perhaps there was bugger all could be done to stop the spread once we had cleared Xmas?
    Once the virus gets in to a population, it travels fast ( I expect many have had it)
    Had China been locked down from RoW pre Xmas, then maybe we wouldn't have had it. Other than that, I think there was little could be done.

    If you look at the places most hit, they are intrinsically linked by International Travel routes and the virus looks like it could well have travelled East to West through intercontinental airport hubs with Frankfurt being perhaps the only one to escape - I'll come to that.

    But from China, we ended up in Italy (Milan) and then quickly out to Madrid, Heathrow, Schipol, Parid CdG and eventually JFK.

    Northern Italy is home to several international trade fairs in Jan/Feb each year. Riva Schuh in January, MICAM in February are 2 that I have been involved with many times.
    Wuhan is a significant centre for footwear, clothing and fashion production and development in China, as is Guangzhou where there are now stories that the virus originated from.

    The spread fits the highest density pattern of travel for attendees at the fashion trade fairs I was involved with as people fly in to Italy from all over the world, then disperse, often spending time in Northern Italy post fair as it still has a large fashion component development industry and interesting shops to follow trends.

    These fashion industry buyers/developers check the market, usually by a flying trip around Europe over the course of 4-5 days post Riva.
    London, Paris, Milan, Barcelona and Madrid are key stop offs. Another fit.

    Germany isn't. Unfortunately the Germans are not seen as fashion leaders.

    There are many factors no doubt in the way this virus has spread, but I'm convinced the international travel linked to the fashion industry has played a part.

    Half a dozen carriers could have arrived in Riva during January and after 4 days of trade fairs and evening socials, 100s could have left, circulating around Northern Italy, around the fashion hubs of Europe and the Intercontinental airport hubs.

    Other similar fairs through Jan/Feb may just have amplified the effect.

    When you see the differing approaches to lockdown, with Italy/France/Spain having the most draconian, us somewhere in the middle and Sweden quite light touch, there really seems very little difference in outcome.
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  8. #478
    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    When you see the differing approaches to lockdown, with Italy/France/Spain having the most draconian, us somewhere in the middle and Sweden quite light touch, there really seems very little difference in outcome.
    I understand some will rush to judge which government had "a good Covid-19 crisis" but it will be comparing pomegranate and pineapple - although the notion that Germany has done well because its population are frumpy has a certain attraction.

    Comparing the UK of 66 million people and the biggest city in Europe with, say, New Zealand with a population of 6 million (but possibly 66 million sheep) is nonsense, just as Ambleside isn't London.

    But I shall await the conclusion of BBC 4's "More Or Less" and ignore every calumny perpetrated by BBC TV "news".
    Last edited by Graham Breeze; 30-04-2020 at 10:17 AM.
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  9. #479
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    England is by far the densest population in Europe outside micro states.
    London is three times the size of Paris or Berlin.
    It would be a surprise if our figures were not worse.
    Our median social distance is much smaller.

    And because parts of the country - take Lake District , Ambleside in particular - continue to REFUSE to accept their share of people (the second home population that is normally there ), these areas are making the density worse elsewhere.

    Doctors accept exposure to unknown pathogens as an occupational hazard. I do not EVER recollect a GP wearing a face mask on first appointment. The exposure risk in every other family of a victim is the same.

    I can understand care worker concern, who are likely more at risk, but the stats on NHS suggest that NHS staff are less at risk, certainly not massive excess risk. So PPE is clearly adequate. The PPE problems are localised not universal. This is not Ebola. It is time that the medical profession stopped using the crisis For political point scoring.

    In the press we see doctors in Germany, USA , France, Spain and others having a ritual grumble about ppe. They are using unprecedented quantities against a backdrop of supply line disruption and terminations. They should accept reality. There are poor countries worldwide who’s medics make do on far less resources. (And salary)

    PPE sourcing is a worldwide problem. I notice panorama forgot to highlight this as does the ever complaining medical fraternity. The medical profession must make do. The procrurement officers are doing their best. They can only do the art of the possible. They deserve the hand clap, for a thankless job.
    EU has proved a dead loss. Time we left.

    As a country we are following the advice of a group of scientists and medics. If you dispute strategy you are arguing with a consensus of your peers, So doctors who seem to think they have a right to argue whatever the government does, should consider the fact that if you all agreed we would go that way. But you don’t. So the lack of unity in medical profession is the problem and it is in your camp.
    Ask Sweden.
    Since you do not have a consensus about a plan, you do not have the right to grumble,

    Belgium is set to be worst in Europe having tested as much as the Germans. So populations are different. Multiply their figures by 6 to see just how bad compared to ours. Comparing figures isn’t helpful.

    India and Pakistan, sub Saharan Africa can afford to do little. So it isnt better medical strategy or money spent on ppe saving the poor countries. The sacred cows of U.K. medics are clearly not so sacred or universal in handling the outbreak.

    We are headed for the worst financial disaster in 100 years. We cannot run the economy solely for the benefit of NHS, much as doctors seem to think we can. There will be no economy if we continue harsh lockdown, and that will have consequences. But no doubt the doctors will complain about that too. Three sure things in life. Death. Taxes. Medics complaining.

    And why are smaller figures necessarily better? Accepting that vaccines are far away, then the faster we get herd immune, the less financial damage will be done.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    Sure, NHS staff sign up to help/treat those with infectious diseases, but not with inadequate PPE. Dinner ladies' aprons, home made visors and masks, re-used kit.

    As to taking "pops" at the Government - we are going to end up with the worst number of deaths in Europe, and probably the world when adjusted for population. They deserve a few pops.

    One of the problems with looking at the rate of infection in NHS/Care staff compared to the general population is that when they become infected, they then go on and infect family/friends/neighbours/other key workers, thus diluting the rate. A lot of the infections in the general public will have started in hospitals/care homes. People in care homes have suffered badly - sending patients from hospitals to care homes without testing was a huge mistake.
    The defence that all this is unprecedented does not work - it was predicted.
    Last edited by Oracle; 30-04-2020 at 10:06 AM.

  10. #480
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    Re Belgium vs UK - they count all suspected Covid deaths, including in hospitals/care homes/own homes, and not just those who test +ve; we only count those who tested positive, and have not yet fully allowed for deaths outside of hospitals. We are ahead of them, I suspect.

    As to high risk events for spreading - think skiing - so many times in the whole experience when you are inches away from others, much less metres: the airport/plane/bus/accommodation/meals/lift queues/cable cars/apres ski and so on - and it is for a large part of the day for six days or more. Petri dishing.

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