Coronavirus

[Muddy Retriever]

Children with inflammatory bowel disease seem quite safe:

Results:
Eight PIBD children had COVID-19 globally, all with mild infection without needing hospitalization despite treatment with immunomodulators and/or biologics. No cases have been reported in China and South Korea but biologic treatment has been delayed in 79 children, of whom 17 (22%) had exacerbation of their IBD. Among the Porto group members, face-to-face appointments were often replaced by remote consultations but almost all did not change current IBD treatment. Ten guidance points for clinicians caring for PIBD patients in epidemic areas have been endorsed with consensus rate of 92-100%.

Conclusions:
Preliminary data for PIBD patients during COVID-19 outbreak are reassuring. Standard IBD treatments including biologics should continue at present through the pandemic, especially in children who generally have more severe IBD course on one hand, and milder SARS-CoV-2 infection on the other.

As to adults, not sure.

My sister is 45 and she received a letter saying that she had to shield herself for 12 weeks - it is clearly going to be a lot longer than that now. The issue I understand is that the immunosuppressant drugs that Chron's sufferers have to take to control their condition put them at increased risk of complications with Covid-19.

[neilly]

Pure speculation as are Belgium numbers. Nobody can control with speculation. It needs something measurable in present not hindsight.

Using the FT non methodology , all countries would have to throw a dart in a board to uprate Their case numbers too. How do you control with numbers from a random number generator?

Some of the press coming from Belgium has seen their MikeT s complaining about their methodology saying that too few are properly verified, many were circumstantial not proven causal. There is no right answer: the distinction is philosophical not scientific. How many patients die with covid or because of covid? Camels and straws. When titanic sank, several bulkheads had overflowed. It is academic which one sank it, it was the combination.

The government needs a reliable measure for relative numbers.
The Reality of the number of cases is also underestimated by a factor of ten or more.
It would not matter what the government did. Part of the medical community would grumble.

England is still the densest population in Europe other than micro states. Belgium second of lesser states.

As for Ambleside, I just citd that as example of country side generally, the vitriolic rhetoric coming from many residents about covidiots is a disgrace. The standing order on second homes was wrong.

I notice The first question fielded yestErday by Boris was concerned resident from Cornwall telling Boris not allow tourists back in case it gave her extra risk.

Hidden subtext “ I’m allright jack. I have a guaranteed income regardless of COVID, so all that matters is keeping me safe. I don’t give a toss if half of my neighbour have no income whose solvency is reliant on some level tourist trade, they can starve for all I care”
Selfish b!tch was my thought when I heard her.

There is an obvious moral hazard with COVID.
The entire public sector gets paid whether or not they work. It is too easy to stay at home. For that reason all public sector salaries should have been cut to help pay for covid, so they too had a vested interest in declaring all clear.

As a result all sorts of facilities are shut that simply should not be. I could list many but take city dumps. Net result they “ self isolate “ in massive numbers because they can, not because they should.

It reminds me of the ( not insignificant) sheet ice problem a few years ago in January. Broadly: all who got paid regardless , whether they work or not, decided it was far too dangerous to go into work, so all the schools for example shut completely stuffing the parents forced to stay with kids.

All those reliant on getting to my house in order to get paid, from milkmen , delivery drivers and self employed tradesmen ( working here at that time) , all made it without problem. Clearly a moral hazard.


The schools should in my view not be shut either for covid, because of downside on parents forced to look after kids, so unnecessarily shutting the economy. I do not think many are taking that problem seriously enough , and the knock on effect to such as pensioners, including the government not taking it seriously enough. But then they too will get paid regardless.

Firstly I feel I should apologise to Oracle. I had a go at you on a Brexit thread. I've been reading a lot of your posts and you seem to be an intelligent man who knows what he's talking about. Sorry for being a dick.

Anyway, I thought I'd throw in my tuppence worth from a Skye perspective.
I'm a Mental health nurse. We've been working pretty much as per usual but with distancing/remote working. I'm also a BnB owner. Highland region has, so far been affected pretty lightly. There's no problems with PPE, nobody is being swamped. There are cases but it's all as expected and everyone is coping.
The rhetoric in the community though is appalling. I've been embarrassed and horrified by the actions of some pitch fork weilding idiots. Signs up telling tourists to keep away, cars with foreign plates being accosted, second home owners being villified. The level of hypocrisy is huge. So many locals have moved their grown up kids home from the cities to 'keep them safe'. When challenged they say its OK as they're 'local'. People posting online about how much they're enjoying Lockdown as there are no tourists about-just like the old days! No thought about the huge numbers of businesses struggling and going under ours included. No thoughts about the kids trapped at home or people with mental health problems deteriorating due to isolation.
Our local Care Home has just tested positive. 8 out of 13 staff positive plus several residents so far. The witch hunt has begun about 'who brought it here' it must be an outsider.

[Mike T]

" The standing order on second homes was wrong. "

You need to take that up with the Government.

[Travs]

The rhetoric in the community though is appalling. I've been embarrassed and horrified by the actions of some pitch fork weilding idiots. Signs up telling tourists to keep away, cars with foreign plates being accosted, second home owners being villified. The level of hypocrisy is huge. So many locals have moved their grown up kids home from the cities to 'keep them safe'. When challenged they say its OK as they're 'local'. People posting online about how much they're enjoying Lockdown as there are no tourists about-just like the old days! No thought about the huge numbers of businesses struggling and going under ours included. No thoughts about the kids trapped at home or people with mental health problems deteriorating due to isolation.
Our local Care Home has just tested positive. 8 out of 13 staff positive plus several residents so far. The witch hunt has begun about 'who brought it here' it must be an outsider.

It's a resentment that you can see everywhere, not just on Skye... Wales, even the Lakes where i've borne the brunt of it on one memorable night out... in Spain when you go into the local's areas of towns and see the signs saying "no tourists" on the bars...

It's always going to be there... a bit of resentment that an area needs the financial input of outsiders to survive, and they don't like it... i think it usually falls into an uneasy truce... those who embrace it and happily work in bars/restaurants/b&b's/etc, and those who don't like it grudgingly acknowledge that tourists keep some economy's afloat... but we as outsiders have a part to play, i.e not trashing the place and showing a bit of respect.

Until something like this comes along and tensions boil over a little...

[Oracle]

" The standing order on second homes was wrong. "

You need to take that up with the Government.

I will take up the vitriolic rhetoric of some country communities with those communities who have revelled in doing it.

Take the shops that say "locals only" when those staying in their weekend home are clearly locals.

Many do not have the simple life. They exist in a city box for weekdays, then go home to live at the weekend. Some notable fell runners do just that. It is moronic of the local communities to say these are second home owners even if they spend more time in the city. They have to , just to pay bills. They only exist in the city, they live for the weekends. The late great Steve Cliffe was just such.

Not to mention paint and paint stripper poured on cars,of people that normally rent, who have decided to live out lockdown in rented cottages far from anyone.

Then what about all the unlawful path closures signs?

As far as I am concerned the signs that say "shut except for locals", the same signs will magically reappear in the middle of the tourist season on the very same shops. Two can play at that game.

I accept the law. I do not accept the behaviour of the communities.
The worst of them will never see another penny of mine.

[Stagger]

Higher mortality rate in poorer areas.

Mmmmmm

Wonder if there's a higher crime rate in similar areas.

[molehill]

Not rocket science, it has been shown that life expectancy is lower by x years in poorer communities and areas all over the country. The reasons are fairly obvious to do with lifestyle and health. It would be newsworthy if there were a lower mortality rate in poorer areas.

[Oracle]

Higher mortality rate in poorer areas.

Mmmmmm

Wonder if there's a higher crime rate in similar areas.

Correlation does not imply cause.

The possible causality is population density ( ie lower social distance) which is high in poor areas.

Or following your thinking stagger, maybe crime causes covid :-) since the two correlate!

[Mike T]

It's a resentment that you can see everywhere, not just on Skye... Wales, even the Lakes where i've borne the brunt of it on one memorable night out... in Spain when you go into the local's areas of towns and see the signs saying "no tourists" on the bars...

It's always going to be there... a bit of resentment that an area needs the financial input of outsiders to survive, and they don't like it... i think it usually falls into an uneasy truce... those who embrace it and happily work in bars/restaurants/b&b's/etc, and those who don't like it grudgingly acknowledge that tourists keep some economy's afloat... but we as outsiders have a part to play, i.e not trashing the place and showing a bit of respect.

Until something like this comes along and tensions boil over a little...

I think that most people in the Lakes accept that tourists are needed for survival, and hopefully make them welcome - those nice little shops/pubs/cafes cannot survive on local trade only. But it is nice when, in the quieter months of the year, most of them have gone, so we can walk on the pavements, and not have to drive on those same pavements to avoid badly parked cars. Having gone from a frequent visitor - for decades - to a permanent resident, I have seen both sides.
There have been no problems "fitting in" - we try to contribute by shopping locally, and by volunteering - my partner in social care/food bank, and I coach with AAC juniors, and try to support the vets. What people say behind our backs of course we may never know. Our neighbours are lovely - one chap nearby has lived in the same street for over 80 years - though he did move from one side of the road to the other!

[Witton Park]

Interestingly me and Mrs WP went up to my brothers caravan on March 21st.
We just walked, kept ourselves to ourselves and returned on Monday 23rd.
On the 22nd we walked down to Grange from Kents Bank and back. It was quiet. The only place open on the front was an ice cream booth.
We both agreed that the chances of catching it up here were slim and we were actually more likely in our home area.
The site closed on Monday, the day we left.

I was perusing the mapping in the Telegraph yesterday.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...istics-reveal/

Turns out Grange and the Cartmel peninsula has been the Cumbrian hotspot and along with Ulverston. They've had 12 deaths by 17th April compared to 4 in my own area.