Coronavirus

[Travs]

I'm not going to the Lakes anytime soon (its not a day trip for me anyway) but I am contemplating a day out in Shropshire Hills in the not too distant future. Though after 2 months of road running, I will be glad to be running anywhere off road so the hills of North Worcestershire will do just fine for now. It will be interesting to see what the response from locals will be in Lakes - those I am in touch with are dead against it not only because of the spread of the virus but because a lot of local infrastructure is either shut or unavailable. I guess the councils wont have much choice but to open up car parks, public toilets etc. currently closed to deter tourists.

You're one of several people who have expressed similar contemplations in the past couple of days that i know of...

Talking of Worcestershire, i may be somewhere in the vicinity this weekend!

[PeteS]

You're one of several people who have expressed similar contemplations in the past couple of days that i know of...

Talking of Worcestershire, i may be somewhere in the vicinity this weekend!

Planning on getting back on the Clent Hills and roundabout as its been 2 months since I was up there. Sadly missed the best of the bluebells by now. I'll be up early on Sunday to avoid the masses and using the lesser known paths and bridalways.

[Travs]

I've rearranged one of my Lakes weekends which was originally for Ennerdale in June, back to september for the LDMT weekend... hadn't been planning to do it this year but looks like i'll be there (all being well and it goes ahead)

[Muddy Retriever]

- I notice that Yorkshire Dales are looking to open up carparks soon, but advise people to be cautious and safe.

I saw that and was very pleased. I'm planning on having two or three days off work next week and the weather is looking pretty good so will take advantage - it's less than an hour from where I live. Hopefully the car parks will be open by then. Looking forward to it.

[Mike T]

You not only get the wrong expert, but you were nowhere near accurate.
You failed to mention the 5 weeks.
Your 50,000 deaths is back of fag-packet and now you go even further suggesting the 50k is out of date - despite that fact that at the current trajectory, you'd need a TARDIS to get there!

I was out in the Far East working during SARS. A very similar lurgy. It just disappeared. MERS, Avian Flu...

There's every chance that the virus will disappear naturally, perhaps to pop up again in the future in it's current form, or maybe a variant.

Oracle probably knows more on this, or can correct me if I get anything wrong, but there were vaccinations developed and taken through the early stages of testing for both SARS and MERS. But they did not proceed because the funding required to progress was not forthcoming as the threat went away.

I believe the Oxford project now being supported by Govt was actually a MERS vaccination that has been piggy-backed, as much of the early development work is similar.

I can't see lack of funding being a problem now and I also expect that all Governments will be making sure they don't come a cropper going forward - hence no doubt the very cautious unlocking of the UK economy.

So to just counter your doomsday prediction here's mine.

We might get a slight kick up in a few weeks, but a minor one. We'll probably get an additional admin created hit that I'll call "TICs"; if they have 30,000 a few more won't cause any additional umbrage.

So we'll have a final figure for the UK in the 40-50k zone by the end of the year but hopefully, the virus will go away naturally and the figure will be at the lower end, and maybe stay in the 30s.

From the Financial Times: Update: "following the latest official figures from the four UK nations, a cautious estimate of the number of excess deaths up to 11 May is 56,800." So not my fag packet.
SARS and MERS vanished as they were nowhere near as infectious as Covid 19, their R's were relatively easy, compared to Covid 19, to get under 1. Ebola "goes dirty" before it becomes really infectious - fever/vomiting/diarrhea/bleeding. Covid 19 is so more infectious, and from its world wide spread, much more stable - it is not going to just disappear. It is going to be with us, like 'flu, until we get a really good drug/vaccine. In terms of total UK deaths - I do hope you are right!

[Stagger]

And here we have some excellent news.

"Visit Blackpool has rebranded as Do Not Visit Blackpool to discourage visitors."

We don't need any discouraging.

[Witton Park]

From the Financial Times: Update: "following the latest official figures from the four UK nations, a cautious estimate of the number of excess deaths up to 11 May is 56,800." So not my fag packet.
SARS and MERS vanished as they were nowhere near as infectious as Covid 19, their R's were relatively easy, compared to Covid 19, to get under 1. Ebola "goes dirty" before it becomes really infectious - fever/vomiting/diarrhea/bleeding. Covid 19 is so more infectious, and from its world wide spread, much more stable - it is not going to just disappear. It is going to be with us, like 'flu, until we get a really good drug/vaccine. In terms of total UK deaths - I do hope you are right!

Nice deflection

[Llani Boy]

And here we have some excellent news.

"Visit Blackpool has rebranded as Do Not Visit Blackpool to discourage visitors."

We don't need any discouraging.

I have never been to Blackpool and never eaten a Pot Noodle.

One day I plan to tick off both at the same time. But not this year!

[Mike T]

Even so the 4% includes Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester etc so I am quizzical how many in Ilkley (to choose a town at random) have had it when there have been no cases reported in the Ilkley Gazette, even though Ilkley is full of care homes (charity shops, fashion shops, restaurants and coffee bars - or at least was).

From the Ilkley Gazette:

"A FURTHER four patients who tested positive for coronavirus have died at Airedale Hospital.

The latest deaths bring the total so far to 91.

In Bradford a further eight deaths at Bradford Royal Infirmary have been reported since yesterday, bringing the total there to 168. Two earlier reported deaths at Bradford District Care Trust brings the district's total. including those at Airedale, to 261."

[Stagger]

I have never been to Blackpool and never eaten a Pot Noodle.

One day I plan to tick off both at the same time. But not this year!

Ha ha ha used to be taken there as a kid to same b&b every year for a week.

Been a few times with my two sons.

Not anymore.

BUT

I'VE NEVER HAD A POT NOODLE.