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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #761
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    Quote Originally Posted by Graham Breeze View Post
    Indeed but Airedale Hospital serves several towns including Keighley which is not only considerably bigger but has a very different ethnic population.
    Bigger in floor plan certainly . If only they had built one more floor at Airedale, it wouldn’t have become the small town it is, and there might even been enough room to park!

  2. #762
    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Bigger in floor plan certainly . If only they had built one more floor at Airedale, it wouldn’t have become the small town it is, and there might even been enough room to park!
    Yes, it always looks like a temporary building to me. Otley (Wharfedale) Hospital is new, nice and you can generally park. They don't do much surgery there but one can't have everything.

    But you will know that, being a local
    Last edited by Graham Breeze; 14-05-2020 at 01:55 PM.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  3. #763
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    "Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity."

    which would put us over 30% and moving towards 40% by now if correct.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...jcp.13528?af=R
    Richard Taylor
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  4. #764
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    "Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity."

    which would put us over 30% and moving towards 40% by now if correct.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...jcp.13528?af=R
    That would be fantastic if true. However, just to depress everyone, antibody testing in France and Spain suggests no more than 5% of their populations have had the virus.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...shows-no-herd/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    That would be fantastic if true. However, just to depress everyone, antibody testing in France and Spain suggests no more than 5% of their populations have had the virus.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...shows-no-herd/
    Anti-bodies aren't the only way you can be immune. I've heard a couple of Profs on radio advising that those exposed might not develop anti-bodies if their bodies immune system fended it off before anti-bodies have developed - white blood cells can defeat it.
    It sounds plausible to me and would fit with those asymptomatic.

    I suppose we'll know more in due course.
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  6. #766
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    "Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity."

    which would put us over 30% and moving towards 40% by now if correct.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...jcp.13528?af=R
    I hope they are right! It is a pity they do not compare their thinking with the random testing results so far. Has their paper been critiqued anywhere?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    "Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity."

    which would put us over 30% and moving towards 40% by now if correct.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...jcp.13528?af=R
    There are issues of genetics , nature and nurture.

    Nobody knows despite the propensity of “ experts. “ to call each other wrong ( they sometimes use the phrase “ the government” to avoid being seen to criticise their peers). Although antipathy between oxford and imperial is well known. Go to any academic conference and see just how nasty and childish these rivalries are between many professors. “Can I have the first question” generally invites the first backhanded insult!

    There is no easy explanation for why some populations have different response, so UK is unique.
    I suspect most of the measures take were of null effect other than to the economy.

    And the much lauded performance of some countries I think in time will be seen as population difference.
    Corona got to most countries long before they were ever aware of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    "Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity."

    which would put us over 30% and moving towards 40% by now if correct.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...jcp.13528?af=R
    Shredded on twitter by people who seem to know what they are talking about. A recent study from Spain:

    Seroprevalence study from Spain, seemingly well designed (random sampling of households), 70K subjects, reveals 5% of country w/ antibodies with considerable geographic variation, infection fatality rate of 1.1%, 90% of cases undetected.

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    Shredded on Twitter

    On a more positive note, it looks like Blackburn with Darwen had no new cases yesterday for the 13th May and running through the PHE data seems to be the case for the other 5 East Lancs constituencies as well.

    London is now down to 24 a day, so something is happening out there.
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  10. #770
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    Shredded on twitter by people who seem to know what they are talking about. A recent study from Spain:

    Seroprevalence study from Spain, seemingly well designed (random sampling of households), 70K subjects, reveals 5% of country w/ antibodies with considerable geographic variation, infection fatality rate of 1.1%, 90% of cases undetected.
    A study carried out by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculates a much larger proportion for the UK.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...g-north-south/

    The new data also suggests that huge numbers of people have already been infected with the disease, around 6.5 million overall in England, including 1.8 million in London.

    Overall, around one in 5 Londoners has been infected by the virus since the epidemic began, compared with 14 per cent of people in the North West, 11 per cent in the Midlands, the North East and Yorkshire, 10 per cent in the East of England and eight per cent in the south east.


    This study is the same one that thinks there is only 24 new daily infections in London at the moment - as WP has mentioned. If true, could this be that an element of herd immunity kicking in? The number who have had the virus may be more than estimated above. The conventional wisdom is that 60% infection is required to achieve herd immunity. However, the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine thinks it is much less than that because it is based on the assumption that we are all equally susceptible to the disease. Clearly that is not the case. They say that gradually the pool of easily-infected individuals dries up and the virus has to search out new victims who are less-easily infected.

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