Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 27

Thread: Deciding to go for it

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    432

    Deciding to go for it

    I think Iíve decided do the BGR, itís always been in my mind but having had chronic injuries itís never seemed possible but Iím going to invest the time, build slowly and get there. My plan is the recce this summer/autumn. Use winter to build mileage/conditioning, spend half terms/Easter in the Lakes learning the tricky bits, walk the route at the beginning of summer, spend 3 weeks in the Alps and then go for a mid Sept round.

    I think Iím writing this just to make it seem more official, so it doesnít stay as a pipe dream in the back of my head. I might revisit this post to keep me on track.

    Iíve been listening to the BG sounds podcast and I liked the advice ďat some point you need need to make a decision, not about whether you finish or not, but you need to decided how you are going to finishĒ

    Any other pearls of wisdom out there?

  2. #2
    Senior Member Full Moon Addict's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Lake District
    Posts
    388
    I wouldn't choose september. more likely to be successful earlier in the year - may or early june best. lower bracken, better weather (on average), longer days.

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    432
    Quote Originally Posted by Full Moon Addict View Post
    I wouldn't choose september. more likely to be successful earlier in the year - may or early june best. lower bracken, better weather (on average), longer days.
    Yeah most attempts appear to be then but I think Iíve got more chance of being fit in September, between family and work itís always been easier to get get decent training on through the summer

  4. #4
    Master Bob's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Darkest eckythumpland
    Posts
    1,752
    Some stats ...

    +-------+-------+
    | month | total |
    +-------+-------+
    | 00 | 1 |
    | 01 | 20 |
    | 02 | 9 |
    | 03 | 2 |
    | 04 | 37 |
    | 05 | 331 |
    | 06 | 1121 |
    | 07 | 568 |
    | 08 | 192 |
    | 09 | 50 |
    | 10 | 5 |
    | 11 | 2 |
    | 12 | 22 |
    +-------+-------+


    A slightly finer breakdown of the above.


    +------+-------+
    | week | total |
    +------+-------+
    | 21 | 141 |
    | 22 | 163 |
    | 23 | 204 |
    | 24 | 371 |
    | 25 | 304 |
    | 26 | 190 |
    | 27 | 126 |
    | 28 | 135 |
    | 29 | 108 |
    +------+-------+


    Roughly 73% of all successes are in the above weeks which are those with more than 100 successes. Week 25 is roughly the last week of June.
    Bob

    http://bobwightman.co.uk/run/bob_graham.php

    Without me you'd be one place nearer the back

  5. #5
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    432
    Thanks I appreciate the data (I’m a maths teacher!) Out of interest do you have the % failure rates for those months as well? There must be a fine line between trods being wider by footfall after winter and the point where bracken regrows. Is the choice of June also due to likelihood’s of mild but dry weather?

  6. #6
    Master Bob's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Darkest eckythumpland
    Posts
    1,752
    I only have the figures from 2013 onwards, prior to that I've only the paper records of successes.

    So in this table I've split all the registrations for years 2013-2019 into successes and failures per month. I wouldn't put too much store in the figures for December, January and February as those are winter attempts and a lot of them wouldn't even have set off if the weather had been bad.

    There's no differentiation between those who set off and those who for whatever reason didn't.

    Overall there is just less than a 50% success rate so April, May and June are better than average whereas the success rate for September is 29%.


    +-------+-----------+----------+
    | month | successes | failures |
    +-------+-----------+----------+
    | 1 | 4 | 8 |
    | 2 | 3 | 1 |
    | 3 | 4 | 3 |
    | 4 | 23 | 18 |
    | 5 | 112 | 86 |
    | 6 | 252 | 209 |
    | 7 | 124 | 153 |
    | 8 | 51 | 85 |
    | 9 | 19 | 46 |
    | 10 | 4 | 15 |
    | 11 | 1 | 1 |
    | 12 | 3 | 21 |
    +-------+-----------+----------+


    Apologies about the formatting, I've selected a fixed width font but it displays incorrectly.
    Last edited by Bob; 18-06-2020 at 09:52 PM.
    Bob

    http://bobwightman.co.uk/run/bob_graham.php

    Without me you'd be one place nearer the back

  7. #7
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Location
    Over Haddon
    Posts
    1,498
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob View Post
    Some stats ...

    +-------+-------+
    | month | total |
    +-------+-------+
    | 00 | 1 |
    | 01 | 20 |
    | 02 | 9 |
    | 03 | 2 |
    | 04 | 37 |
    | 05 | 331 |
    | 06 | 1121 |
    | 07 | 568 |
    | 08 | 192 |
    | 09 | 50 |
    | 10 | 5 |
    | 11 | 2 |
    | 12 | 22 |
    +-------+-------+


    A slightly finer breakdown of the above.


    +------+-------+
    | week | total |
    +------+-------+
    | 21 | 141 |
    | 22 | 163 |
    | 23 | 204 |
    | 24 | 371 |
    | 25 | 304 |
    | 26 | 190 |
    | 27 | 126 |
    | 28 | 135 |
    | 29 | 108 |
    +------+-------+


    Roughly 73% of all successes are in the above weeks which are those with more than 100 successes. Week 25 is roughly the last week of June.
    You seem to have 13 months in the first table Bob!

    I assume the higher numbers over Dec/Jan is due to it being a holiday period rather than being weather related.
    Visibility good except in Hill Fog

  8. #8
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Location
    Over Haddon
    Posts
    1,498
    Quote Originally Posted by matthew View Post
    I think I’ve decided do the BGR, it’s always been in my mind but having had chronic injuries it’s never seemed possible but I’m going to invest the time, build slowly and get there. My plan is the recce this summer/autumn. Use winter to build mileage/conditioning, spend half terms/Easter in the Lakes learning the tricky bits, walk the route at the beginning of summer, spend 3 weeks in the Alps and then go for a mid Sept round.

    I think I’m writing this just to make it seem more official, so it doesn’t stay as a pipe dream in the back of my head. I might revisit this post to keep me on track.

    I’ve been listening to the BG sounds podcast and I liked the advice “at some point you need need to make a decision, not about whether you finish or not, but you need to decided how you are going to finish”

    Any other pearls of wisdom out there?
    Are you able to tell me your age or even which age group you are in?
    Visibility good except in Hill Fog

  9. #9
    Master Bob's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Darkest eckythumpland
    Posts
    1,752
    I think that's a problem with how the system sees months and weeks and what's the first week which varies from year to year. Assume the '0' is January.

    The December figures are probably people wanting to get a round done early in the winter season or going for a mid-winter round which is based around the Solstice. Other than that no idea.
    Bob

    http://bobwightman.co.uk/run/bob_graham.php

    Without me you'd be one place nearer the back

  10. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    432
    Quote Originally Posted by Llani Boy View Post
    Are you able to tell me your age or even which age group you are in?
    34, any particular reason?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •