Baby boomer payback

[Wheeze]

Witton, although for most it is, as you say, only slightly worse than flu (there is some evidence emerging that challenges that but lets leave that for now), a tiny but very significant minority develop a highly lethal form of the illness that swamps, or threatens to swamp, our ICU capacity. You cannot swamp that capacity and leave other acute deserving cases to die any more than you can suddenly whistle up hundreds of ICU beds and trained staff. The Nightingale hospitals hopefully will provide the latter but have not been tested in anger yet. In truth, I am with John. Let the damn thing run through the population. Which is all very well until it gets YOU or a loved one. So we have to have some measure of control.

[Mike T]

Witton, although for most it is, as you say, only slightly worse than flu (there is some evidence emerging that challenges that but lets leave that for now), a tiny but very significant minority develop a highly lethal form of the illness that swamps, or threatens to swamp, our ICU capacity. You cannot swamp that capacity and leave other acute deserving cases to die any more than you can suddenly whistle up hundreds of ICU beds and trained staff. The Nightingale hospitals hopefully will provide the latter but have not been tested in anger yet. In truth, I am with John. Let the damn thing run through the population. Which is all very well until it gets YOU or a loved one. So we have to have some measure of control.

From today's WHO briefing - Covid is 50 to 500 times more fatal than swine flu was in 2009. The IFR - infection fatality ratio - is felt to be about 0.6% - roughly one in 200. The deaths of course are heavily tilted towards the elderly and those with underlying health issues, but even those who survive are not necessarily unscarred.

[Stagger]

The problem is with the natural selection argument that nine times out of ten the idiot takes out some other poor sod driving (or cycling) quite sensibly.

Nay, most of the nutters are dead at the scene between 10pm and 6am

Sensible people are in bed at those times

[Witton Park]

Witton, although for most it is, as you say, only slightly worse than flu (there is some evidence emerging that challenges that but lets leave that for now), a tiny but very significant minority develop a highly lethal form of the illness that swamps, or threatens to swamp, our ICU capacity. You cannot swamp that capacity and leave other acute deserving cases to die any more than you can suddenly whistle up hundreds of ICU beds and trained staff. The Nightingale hospitals hopefully will provide the latter but have not been tested in anger yet. In truth, I am with John. Let the damn thing run through the population. Which is all very well until it gets YOU or a loved one. So we have to have some measure of control.

There were perhaps a few weeks when it looked like our ICU capacity might be swamped, but it wasn't.

But isn't that what we get in a flu pandemic? The news is usually full of people lying on trollies taking a pop at the Govt for missing it's targets during Autumn/Winter.

Every autumn are we going to have limited lockdown's when flu starts picking up to protect a few?

In March / early April what we had were sensible measures, which with some hindsight were probably an over reaction and included a rather ill thought out policy of clearing the elderly out of hospitals.

Since end of April I think we've been seriously OTT especially with evidence from elsewhere that suggest there are no issues around schools and Sweden has had very light tough measures which suggest lockdown achieves nothing more than economic self-harm and fear.

[noel]

There were perhaps a few weeks when it looked like our ICU capacity might be swamped, but it wasn't.

But isn't that what we get in a flu pandemic? The news is usually full of people lying on trollies taking a pop at the Govt for missing it's targets during Autumn/Winter.

Every autumn are we going to have limited lockdown's when flu starts picking up to protect a few?

In March / early April what we had were sensible measures, which with some hindsight were probably an over reaction and included a rather ill thought out policy of clearing the elderly out of hospitals.

Since end of April I think we've been seriously OTT especially with evidence from elsewhere that suggest there are no issues around schools and Sweden has had very light tough measures which suggest lockdown achieves nothing more than economic self-harm and fear.

It never fails to amaze me how different people view things so differently. For me the 45,000 deaths show the government policies were not an overreaction. And regarding Sweden, they didn't lock down, but have seen over 5000 deaths in a population of 10 million. Indeed, the people who took the decision have publicly admitted it was a mistake. Compare these numbers with Norway (256 deaths in total), Finland (331 deaths) and Denmark (616 deaths), all countries that did lock down.

[Wheeze]

Never mind how you cut the numbers (an endless game), there is no doubt that this virus drove a spike in excess deaths during spring. There is also no doubt that:
1. It will not go away.
2. It might mutate.
3. There will be others, old and new.
4. We have to formulate a strategy for societal functioning and economic survival.

Over the long term, point 4 will have a far greater impact on people, vulnerable or not.

[Graham Breeze]

It never fails to amaze me how different people view things so differently.

Indeed.

"Trump says US efforts 'working very well' as coronavirus death trends continue upward"

[Muddy Retriever]

It never fails to amaze me how different people view things so differently. For me the 45,000 deaths show the government policies were not an overreaction. And regarding Sweden, they didn't lock down, but have seen over 5000 deaths in a population of 10 million. Indeed, the people who took the decision have publicly admitted it was a mistake. Compare these numbers with Norway (256 deaths in total), Finland (331 deaths) and Denmark (616 deaths), all countries that did lock down.

But this isn't over with. A more accurate assessment of who got it right and who didn't might might need to wait a year or so. There are a number of countries who locked down early, initially suppressed the virus and were widely hailed only to see a spike when lockdown measures were eased. South Africa, Israel and now Australia spring to mind.

Interestingly the director of Norway's public health agency said that they probably didn't need to have locked down. She said ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’

Sweden's figures are exacerbated because like the UK, they failed to protect their elderly in care homes.

[Graham Breeze]

Interestingly the director of Norway's public health agency said that they probably didn't need to have locked down. She said ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’

Well yes, but those last 8 words assume that people would have behaved as the powers-that-be would have liked them to, and that just doesn't happen because people will insist on behaving - as people will (mis)behave.

[Stagger]

It never fails to amaze me how different people view things so differently. For me the 45,000 deaths show the government policies were not an overreaction. And regarding Sweden, they didn't lock down, but have seen over 5000 deaths in a population of 10 million. Indeed, the people who took the decision have publicly admitted it was a mistake. Compare these numbers with Norway (256 deaths in total), Finland (331 deaths) and Denmark (616 deaths), all countries that did lock down.

Should we trust the government figures???