Like I say, the numbers game is endless. The point of the thread is to discuss ways forward.
Like I say, the numbers game is endless. The point of the thread is to discuss ways forward.
Simon Blease
Monmouth
[QUOTE=noel;664676]So a more reasonable comparison would be other Scandinavian countries./QUOTE]
Or Scotland, maybe Northern Ireland, Portugal...
The COVID graphs superimposed look remarkably similar where I have seen them.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
I suppose I'll just have to go back over old ground from a few weeks ago.
I'll take the experts at their word. COVID has an effective R rate without intervention of around 4.
Imperial actually had a graph (I think MR posted it on this thread) plotting it as 3.9 and dropping to 0.9 over the week around lockdown.
The 3.9 didn't reduce in the Imperial analysis during the handwashing period and there wasn't a great deal more done.
My wife was working as normal until Friday 21/3, giving lifts to and from work, eating in the canteen as normal at lunch, working in the same proximity....
I was going about my business as normal.
My daughter worked as normal in the NHS up until she stopped for her holiday on 14/3.
Based on R 4 and turnover time of 5 days, 1 case day 1 leads to 19 million by day 60.
Add in an almost daily new drip feed of people bringing it in to the country and that would be many more cases.
It was here mid Jan, so it was 20 million by Mid March. That's what the maths says.
Am I wrong?
I could be, if the R rate was never anywhere near 4. But that isn't me assessing that, it's from Imperial and many others including the Select Committee that have today criticised the non-quarantine in the early stages of people coming in from abroad.
The average transfer time could be more than the 5 days (4.8 in the Imperial report).
But I'm not alone in this. Professor Gupta and her team at Oxford suggested we might already have herd immunity as far back in April.
https://reaction.life/we-may-already...sunetra-gupta/
Heneghan's statistical analysis suggests it as well.
Not in the normal sense of having anti-bodies, but in the sense of a built in ability to resist.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
But I think that getting the correct numbers and interpreting them correctly is critical to deciding the way forward.
1. If the Covid death figures are inflated (as they are each day at the moment) then you scare people unnecessarily. It can also lead to wrong public policy being made. I.e we proceed much more cautiously than we potentially need to do, causing long-term economic damage.
2. Likewise, if the Government decides it will start closing pubs because confirmed cases have ticked up but doesn't factor in increased and more targeted testing as the reason for this then business owners will lose their livelihoods and employees their jobs when they didn't need to do.
HP or Daddies?Find the sauce and work from there.
....it's all downhill from here.
The original one not the imitation
HP all the way and tomato sauce is just... wrong 🤣
I wouldn’t have brown sauce in the house. It’s nearly as common as having a milk bottle on the table
Poacher turned game-keeper