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Thread: Baby boomer payback

  1. #61
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/747/html/
    Whitty says:

    "To be clear, multiple steps were taken along the way. If you look at the R, and the behaviours, quite a lot of the change that led to the R going below one occurred well before, or to some extent before, the 23rd, when the full lockdown started.Let us be clear. I am very much in favour of the fact that the lockdown happened, but some people argue that R had crossed one even before that point in time. Lots of people are going over the numbers retrospectively.."

    Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar also said that he "believe(s) lockdown was too late. It should have come in earlier".


    If you want to look at a paper, have a look here: its key premise is "its reliance not on hypothetical modeling but on actual data". There is also a study of the effectiveness of the Italian lockdowns here.

    So if peak cases occurred before peak lockdown
    it's not possible to know that, though is it, as lockdown meant that infection rates went down (i.e was effective)? Have a look at the US, where it's supposed to be "going away" and isn't.
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  2. #62
    Master Wheeze's Avatar
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    Like I say, the numbers game is endless. The point of the thread is to discuss ways forward.
    I am Kuno....

  3. #63
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=noel;664676]So a more reasonable comparison would be other Scandinavian countries./QUOTE]

    Or Scotland, maybe Northern Ireland, Portugal...

    The COVID graphs superimposed look remarkably similar where I have seen them.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeze View Post
    Like I say, the numbers game is endless. The point of the thread is to discuss ways forward.
    Simples.

    Find the sauce and work from there.

    Stagger for Nobel prize

  5. #65
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    I suppose I'll just have to go back over old ground from a few weeks ago.

    I'll take the experts at their word. COVID has an effective R rate without intervention of around 4.

    Imperial actually had a graph (I think MR posted it on this thread) plotting it as 3.9 and dropping to 0.9 over the week around lockdown.
    The 3.9 didn't reduce in the Imperial analysis during the handwashing period and there wasn't a great deal more done.
    My wife was working as normal until Friday 21/3, giving lifts to and from work, eating in the canteen as normal at lunch, working in the same proximity....
    I was going about my business as normal.
    My daughter worked as normal in the NHS up until she stopped for her holiday on 14/3.

    Based on R 4 and turnover time of 5 days, 1 case day 1 leads to 19 million by day 60.

    Add in an almost daily new drip feed of people bringing it in to the country and that would be many more cases.

    It was here mid Jan, so it was 20 million by Mid March. That's what the maths says.

    Am I wrong?

    I could be, if the R rate was never anywhere near 4. But that isn't me assessing that, it's from Imperial and many others including the Select Committee that have today criticised the non-quarantine in the early stages of people coming in from abroad.

    The average transfer time could be more than the 5 days (4.8 in the Imperial report).

    But I'm not alone in this. Professor Gupta and her team at Oxford suggested we might already have herd immunity as far back in April.
    https://reaction.life/we-may-already...sunetra-gupta/

    Heneghan's statistical analysis suggests it as well.

    Not in the normal sense of having anti-bodies, but in the sense of a built in ability to resist.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  6. #66
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stagger View Post
    Simples.

    Find the sauce and work from there.

    Stagger for Nobel prize

    You've got my vote.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  7. #67
    Master Muddy Retriever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeze View Post
    Like I say, the numbers game is endless. The point of the thread is to discuss ways forward.
    But I think that getting the correct numbers and interpreting them correctly is critical to deciding the way forward.

    1. If the Covid death figures are inflated (as they are each day at the moment) then you scare people unnecessarily. It can also lead to wrong public policy being made. I.e we proceed much more cautiously than we potentially need to do, causing long-term economic damage.

    2. Likewise, if the Government decides it will start closing pubs because confirmed cases have ticked up but doesn't factor in increased and more targeted testing as the reason for this then business owners will lose their livelihoods and employees their jobs when they didn't need to do.

  8. #68
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    Find the sauce and work from there.
    HP or Daddies?
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  9. #69
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    The original one not the imitation

  10. #70
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    HP all the way and tomato sauce is just... wrong 🤣

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