Still 1 from 3 for the BGR?

[Mark Smith]

Just before i did the BG two years ago (this weekend in fact...) i read and was told that 2 from every 3 attempts fail. I wondered if this ratio still held true or anything like true?

Clearly, you're far more likely to hear about those that made it on here, but i just wondered whether there was a greater success rate thesedays due to better knowledge, better support (not least from the ever growing list of BGRers) and perhaps even the odd trod making a difference? It seems to feel that way, but i don;t really know.

I should say that I am not making any suggestion that it is getting easier - it's still a long way and has plenty of climbing. I just wondered if the one out of three making it round thing was a myth or reality?

Any info or insight much appreciated and well done for those guys that made it this weekend

ST

[Bob]

Morgan will have the exact figures but http://forum.fellrunner.org.uk/showthread.php?t=6664

[RobW]

Morgan will have the exact figures but http://forum.fellrunner.org.uk/showthread.php?t=6664

which saith:

For many years, the failure rate was around 66%. I suspect it is coming down to nearer 50% now.

You'd expect success rate to improve, with paths and route knowledge getting better?

[Mr1470]

You'd expect success rate to improve, with paths and route knowledge getting better?

Possibly. But against that, I wonder if the greater knowledge and "publicity" of the BG leads more people to have a go these days? People such as myself, a "mid-pack" fellrunner, are encouraged and supported by others to give it a go and, as I've already proved(!), that means more borderline attempts which may lead to more failures.

[IainR]

You'd expect success rate to improve, with paths and route knowledge getting better?

I think that is happening with the Paddy now, hence the spate of quick times and far fewer failures.

There's a few trods for the route now getting developed but I also think the route is now fairly well known by a lot more people, with all the short cuts fairly well worked out.

BTW with Mary did you take the direct descent of Yr Aran or down the ridge and round via the wall?

[MorganW]

It was gut instinct that made me say we are down to nearer a 50% success rate; I can't prove it, yet.

I might ask Brian to add to his yearly data the number of attempts also, so we start to get a "proper" figure.

Fred used to spend hours ploughing through the fine detail of the stats. Don't know where he found the time (but he wasn't a fell runner himself). Deserves a knighthood.

Morgan

[Bob]

There are actually three figures: registration of attempts, actual attempts and successful attempts. Unless people inform Brian that they have actually attempted the round but failed then the only ratio available is successes/registrations. Granted it is likely that most who actually register will make an attempt so the difference is likely to be slight.

[Mark Smith]

It was gut instinct that made me say we are down to nearer a 50% success rate; I can't prove it, yet.

I might ask Brian to add to his yearly data the number of attempts also, so we start to get a "proper" figure

It would be interesting for sure, i only know of one retirement in about 10 rounds i've been involved with or know about - and even mid-pack me got round first go.

Thanks

[DazTheSlug]

Possibly. But against that, I wonder if the greater knowledge and "publicity" of the BG leads more people to have a go these days? People such as myself, a "mid-pack" fellrunner, are encouraged and supported by others to give it a go and, as I've already proved(!), that means more borderline attempts which may lead to more failures.

the opposite side to this coin is that more people with the required fitness (orienteers, ultra-runners, marathoners, long-distance walkers) will also have attempted (successfully) and so increase the success-rate

[Mark G]

Having had three attempts does that mean that I should have got round by now? For some reason I run in to problems at about 12 hours, never got further than two thirds of the way after getting in to problems and losing time around Langdale in either direction - Stats for me would be two of us tried and failed in the early 80s, I had another serious attempt a month later but weather (and a pacer who dropped out at the last minute leaving me to do leg one solo put paid to that) and a later attempt below when my friend managed to continue and made it with about 15 minutes to spare, so thats 5 tries for one success! I was interested to see the earlier post about bolting Broad Stand - on my last attempt (a few years ago, anticlockwise) I was doing OK, a nice 5 minutes up and my friend and I got held up at Broad Stand by a large party climbing up it with ropes, pacers etc. We were stuck above them for quite a few minutes and went from feeling good and having time in hand to feeling cold and being 5 minutes down, which was a big mental knockback for me - eventually I had to downclimb around them which probably wasn't the best idea because our pacers and my friend who was also attempting it were still at the top and I ended up waiting for them and getting even colder at the bottom, so nothing gained really. I suppose it shows how busy the round can get at summer weekends and we were probably unfortunate in our timing - ten minutes earlier and we would probably have been down before the other group arrived.