Farage NEW PM

[Fellbeast]

Richard Tice doing some very public blackmail on Twitter this morning:

“With a special Easter message to Tory MP Jonathan Gillis:

Given the multiple bits of embarrassing personal information we have on you, I suggest you pipe down on your personal attacks on me”

Setting the bar low, lower than low, but I’m sure reform can go even better than that

[Witton Park]

Richard Tice doing some very public blackmail on Twitter this morning:

“With a special Easter message to Tory MP Jonathan Gillis:

Given the multiple bits of embarrassing personal information we have on you, I suggest you pipe down on your personal attacks on me”

Setting the bar low, lower than low, but I’m sure reform can go even better than that

And?

I'm not sure anyone on here has endorsed Tice or Reform.

[Fellbeast]

And?

I'm not sure anyone on here has endorsed Tice or Reform.

Haha apologies - with you watching reform’s polling so closely and exactly counting their percentage change in polling between each and every poll, I thought for one minute there that you were thinking of voting for them.

And anyway, even if you don’t fit perfectly with reform you must fit with that corner of the electorate that reform and the tories are fighting like rats in a bag over?

[Witton Park]

Haha apologies - with you watching reform’s polling so closely and exactly counting their percentage change in polling between each and every poll, I thought for one minute there that you were thinking of voting for them. Even if you don’t fit perfectly with reform you must fit with that corner of the electorate that reform and the tories are fighting like rats in a bag over?

I'm considering voting for them Brian, but I wouldn't call that an endorsement.

If you read back on the thread, which I know is a bit much, but I think when Trevor started it as he was frustrated at the 3 main parties and that's where I am.

I'll repeat what I posted some time ago. My vote will go either to Reform or SDP and I'll decide when I see the candidates.
I probably prefer the SDP, but they have little traction at the moment and I can't see them getting it as things stand.

If anyone wonders why I can do that because some of the Reform members might have unsavoury opinions or backgrounds I can give you a long list of Tory, Labour, LibDem, SNP and now DUP that have questionable opinions, actions and in some instances convictions.

If we went too deep on this, no one would vote for any party.

[Fellbeast]

Reform have had to remove a number of their candidates for the next election recently for their absolutely irrefutable racist comments, previously made on Twitter. Lee Anderson was racist for the world to see and the tories would’ve welcomed him back and reform thought he fitted the bill perfectly. Meanwhile Nigel Farage, another racist and certainly a toady to the completely deranged Donald Trump, is trying to walk a dodgy line to becoming the next US Ambassador by grifting his otherwise intention or feigned intention of joining reform. There is a very high ratio of scum bags per square inch, the further to the right you tread that’s for sure

[Witton Park]

Reform have had to remove a number of their candidates for the next election recently for their absolutely irrefutable racist comments, previously made on Twitter. Lee Anderson was racist for the world to see and the tories would’ve welcomed him back and reform thought he fitted the bill perfectly. Meanwhile Nigel Farage, another racist and certainly a toady to the completely deranged Donald Trump, is trying to walk a dodgy line to becoming the next US Ambassador by grifting his otherwise intention or feigned intention of joining reform. There is a very high ratio of scum bags per square inch, the further to the right you tread that’s for sure

Actually Reform chose to remove one candidate, but didn't have to, Beau Dade, because of pressure from Hope not Hate. I can't find it at the moment, but one of their board is ex National Front.

Beau made a joke about the Scots.

He's very bright, well read.

Labour had to remove their MP in Rochdale, They have removed the whip from their last leader, Their Deputy Leader is under investigation and referED TO tORIES AS "sCUM".

My Labour MP had to resign from the Shadow Cabinet after attempting to blackmail another MP. She's still an MP.

She was trying to protect the MP for Hartlepool Mike Hill who was eventually rsigned following sexual harrassment claims that were founded.

Labour MP for Peterborough - convicted for perverting the course of justice.

Labour MP for Sheffield Hallam - convicted for making fraudulent expenses claims to fund a cocaine habit.

Tory MP Chris Pincher - sexual misconduct.

Tory MP Scott Benton - lobbying misconduct.

There's a long list Brian - so I take it you can rule yourself out of voting for Labour.

Personally, I'll take the young man making a joke about the Scots over any of the above.

[Witton Park]

Looks like Stolly can breath a sigh of relief.

Farage not going to stand

[Wheeze]

He is standing for Clacton.

[MattPo]

He must have made Sir Kier’s day😂

[Witton Park]

He must have made Sir Kier’s day������

I disagree Matt. For one does it really matter whether Labour get a few extra seats, if that is what this leads to?
It would seem that a Labour landslide is a formality.

I might be wrong, but here is how I see it.

There are a large number of "None of the aboves" out there.

The voters keen on Labour are already showing in the polls

The few voters prepared to stick with the Tories, are already showing in the polls.

What is not showing in the polls are those undecided, or those who say they will not vote, but who normally do vote. The pollsters strip those out and in my opinion, that is extremely misleading as it misrepresents the playing field.

The latest YouGov UK monster poll of circa 55K converts to %s and does not represent at all any "not sures" and even if you download the data file they give public access to, it makes no reference such as "We polled 68,234 of which 54675 indicated a preference" which pollsters would normally do and only shows %.

Typically we see
Labour 45%
Conservative 23%
Reform 12%
LibDen 10%
Green 6%
etc in the polls

But the reality is they should really be reading more like this

Labour 36%
Conservative 18,5%
Reform 10%
LibDem 8%
Green 4.5%
Undecided 20%

Then who are up for grabs? Clearly the 20%.

Where will they go? Who knows, but it's less likely to be Tory or Labour at this stage.

Then also consider down to the constituency level.

In Rossendale and Darwen we have incumbent MP Jake Berry with a majority of 9500 over Labour.

In simple terms, Labour have probably enough of a lead over the Tories to flip this.

That is especially so as in 2019 the Brexit Party stood aside which likely helped Berry back then.

However Labour have their own issues. Councillors have defected to the Greens and have declared intent to stand and we also have the Galloway effect. Several wards have a significant Pakistani contingent.

I spoke to a senior Labour Party member from Rossy earlier on this year and they were worried about the internal rifts.

So Labour could take a hit here and these very complex battles are being replicated all around the North.
In our recent local election, 8 of 17 Blackburn wards went to independents - what you might call the Galloway crew.

Labour have been described as following a Ming Vase tactic.

Just don't drop it - they nearly did with Dianne Abbott last week.

Farage coming back isn't good for the Tories, but I don't believe Starmer will welcome the disruption either to what seemed like a pretty straight forward 100+ majority for him a month or two back, even a week ago.

I fully get that it will be tough for Reform to win any seats, but they are 2nd according to Yougov in 27 red wall seats before yesterdays announcement and you can expect they will put all their resources in to some of the key ones.

My prediction, they will top 6 million votes and might even push the Tories to 2nd, take 0 - 5 seats and that will be a qualified success, because it will expose the vagaries of the electoral system when the LibDems come in with 20-30 seats on half the vote share.