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No, that doesn't follow. Supplying gas to the EU doesn't mean he supports the EU; it means that he is happy to make money from the EU, as well as having valuable blackmail potential. Putin is far cleverer than you seem to give him credit for.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
Ok now this is getting too personal. I understand this topic stirs a lot of emotions, but personal ridicule of a fellow forumite's views in such a manner is not what I've come to expect from this forum. Please let's not descend into the nasty bitching, or indeed worse, found elsewhere on the net. Deep breaths?Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
Well said, and two ex-team-mates at that. Stay friendly CL :)
To vote, or not to vote that is the question!
Or maybe whack the fire alarm and call it off (again).
Place you’re (not real or financial) bets?
*although there are some impressively long odds available if your so inclined.
I expect a rejection followed by a futile attempt by Labour to get a no-confidence vote. Followed by some confusion, followed by an extension of the deadline, then some really vague and underhandedly meaningless assurances after which Teresa May's plan will be narrowly voted through. Then the real fun will start.
Well that would pass for organised government in Italy, where they still manage to produce Bianchi bikes and Ferrari cars and Barolo wine and...:)Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
Very interesing comments. Those two paragraphs do sum up the situation.
Looking back, the British political system's utter failure to manage the Brexit process is striking. Unlike Ireland, the UK has very limited experience of referendums, and this lack of experience has shown. Ireland's written Constitution means that in advance of a referendum the precise legal consequences of it passing have to be spelled out.
In contrast in the UK, no detail on what form Brexit would take was given. Unbelievably, Theresa May, and a huge majority in the House of Commons, voted to trigger Article 50 knowing that it had a strict two-year time limit when the UK had yet to work out what it wanted out of the Brexit process.
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/c...-37712311.html
Ronan McCrea is Professor of Constitutional and European Law at University College London
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
That is the "spin" that a Remainer would put on it.
Everyone who voted Leave did so having listened to economic warnings. They expected a discussion on trade but there was an acceptance that we would leave under WTO terms if necessary.
The nub here is that the process has been managed by Mrs May and her advisors. They didn't vote to Leave, they have no positive vision for leave and have treated it like a damage limitati0on exercise.
I don't know anyone who voted Leave who would not accept a WTO departure. They might prefer an FTA, zero tariffs, mutual recognition ie the Davis plan, but if that cannot be sorted they would not opt for a BRINO.
I think everyone knows my position. But I would rather Remain than us sign the Withdrawal Agreement. It is that bad.
The vote will probably only have around 200-250 for tonight. Almost 200 of those will be on the Govt payroll. I think that says it all.
This WA has united ERG and People's vote, leavers and remainers. It is appalling.
I have never head of Professor McCrea before, is he a remainer?Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
He wrote:Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
"They are right that the decision to vote Leave was misguided."
He certainly isn't a Leaver.
I wasn't talking about the Prof, I was on about the venerable Doctor :DQuote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
"In contrast in the UK, no detail on what form Brexit would take was given."
So this mess is actually Cameron's fault for authorising a referendum without defining the legal consequences of a leave vote. No wonder he did a runner, and left his successor to pick up the pieces/wreck her political career. His Mummy must be so proud of him.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
The Conservative general election policy in 2015 included "Referendum on Britain’s EU membership". Teresa May endorsed that policy, she is just as complicit as Cameron.
The crowds outside parliament with their flags make it look like a medieval battle ground.
Grump ! You grumpy b*gger
May is a month not a PM.
Plenty of fuel available at the moment DT.Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
Well, that was a proper kicking!
634 voted, majority of 230 against 😆
Aaaaaannnd next up, survivor mode (again) for May.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Jan 13th.
CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc)
Had not realized how close it still it. With the Tories imploding, Labour are still only 3 pts ahead.
That waster Jeremy Corbyn is really running out of wriggle room now. He is actually going to have to make a decision. It could be the first one he made since becoming leader.
He chose that wretched red tie Pat. Or at least I guess he did; no one else would have advised him to wear it
Aren't all 650 MPs culpable if only by omission? None seem to have the intellectual capacity to understand or solve the problem. Too busy telling us FACTS, which in truth are merely unsubstantiated opinions. "A no deal Brexit will be an economic catastrophe" - really? Prove it!Quote:
Originally Posted by William Clough
The political class have forgotten they are elected to serve the country, and not be self-serving. "When WE are in power" sums up the attitude, which has evolved over the last 15/20 years if not longer. As a few commentators have observed, the main stream parties are about to find out what the electorate think of them after this latest debacle, and it may not be pretty.
Sorry for the simplistic view of politics... but...
How can they not vote this deal though, but then (likely) still give her a vote of confidence tonight...
Jeremy Corbyn is just another career politician... if Theresa May said today was Wednesday, he'd tell you it was Thursday.
The EU have absolute contempt for us, and the politicians are just looking after themselves as usual.
Whole thing is an absolute s**t-show.
I think the EU are now saying "what do you want?"
And the funny thing is, as a nation, we don't really know.
Not at all: some people think they can have the penny and the bun.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
DUP's Arlene Foster: 'There was never a hard border in Ireland'
https://www.independent.ie/breaking-...-37716357.html
Leaving aside that she is distinguishing between an economic border and a security border, I guess she is saying that because there was not an economic border in the past then there is no need to have one in the future? I suppose it is beyond her capacity to understand that there was not an economic border becasue both the UK and Ireland are in the free trade area and before that probably the bilateral deals done between the UK and Ireland. Both of which will no longer apply becasue of May's red lines.
Who votes for these type of people?
They’ve been asking that for a while now, recently here https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-brexit-means/Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
Maybe people who read the full article.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
"Calling for the backstop to be binned, she said she believed there were administrative and technology options which could pave the way forward for border checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic in order to prevent the need for infrastructure."
This has been the view of the UK Government, HMRC, Customs Experts, the WTO, the Irish Tax authorities and the Irish Government until Leo Varadkar became premier and decided to politicise the border.
I don't think the backstop is the only problem with the Withdrawal Agreement but I do think resolving that issue will go a long way towards getting the Withdrawal Agreement passed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I cannot understand the EUs position on this though.
As things stand we will leave on 29th March and there will be no backstop.
So surely a backstop with (say) a 6 month notice period would be better? That way if it looks like the UK and EU are not going to come to a settled agreement by 2023 the UK Govt of the day can give notice and there is time to deal with it.
Listening to Barnier today, as well as many MPs in the Commons currently, they are talking of the UK Government's red lines, but the backstop is a big red line of the EUs that is at the root of the problems with the WA.
The major problem with the agreement as I understand it is if it was accepted we’d be leaving the EU. Is that correct?
Maybe it's a problem of language. Most people seem to have a problem with the "backstop". What if we called it a "wicketkeeper" instead?
That gives it a much more English feel, like we came up with the idea.
Very good Noel. A career on the foreign office beckons for you I’m sure
Do the DUP like cricket?
Travs said "Sorry for the simplistic view of politics... but...
How can they not vote this deal though, but then (likely) still give her a vote of confidence tonight..."
To understand this you have to first realise that the MP's have a free vote as the "deal" is in place because of a Referendum, not a Conservative directive. So Tory MP's can vote against the deal without it being seen as voting against their party. Of course, non of them would vote for no confidence and Corbyn knows it. He's between a rock and hard place because he knows a vote of no confidence is a waste of time but equally would be seen to be weak if he did not call for one.
As you say he has very little chance of succeeding with the no confidence vote tonight. However I'd heard that Labour were going to repeatedly go for confidence votes in the weeks ahead. There has been some speculation that if Theresa May looked as if she was going down the no-deal path then hard Tory remainers like Grieve, Soubry etc. might withdraw their support. And obviously given the parliamentary arithmetic, it wouldn't take many rebels to bring down the Government. On the other hand Brexiteers could rebel if she opts for a second referendum or tries to soften the deal any further e.g. Norway plus Customs Union. So Theresa May really is between a rock and a hard place.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
I think a general election is in order.
I can then ask my MP if they are a leave or remain supporter.
The government would then be made up of more politicians representing the voters.
Simples.
Never mind.
The clock is ticking.
The only reason the nation doesn't know what it wants is because the losers are in control of the Brexit process. If Remain had won the vote we wouldn't be hearing from them on how the views of the losers(Brexiteers)should be taken into account. And you Noel would certainly not be on this forum advocating a watering down of EU membership if Remain had won.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
Very good point 'The Grump' and something I've noticed. Most of the politicians never explain why a no deal Brexit is such a bad thing, they just treat it as axiomatic.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrump
Good point CL, I wouldn't. The difference is that remain is a very clearly defined option. Whereas leave means different things to different people. There are many leave voters who want to still have free trade with Europe, and many who don't.
On your point to the Grump, there are lots of business people making many good points about why a no-deal Brexit is a bad thing. Maybe the politicians are listening to them.
Oh I give up! When May finally decides to have cross party talks, Jezza starts imposing his own conditions. Even Mrs Clough who is a rabid Corbynite is annoyed with him. He really isn't doing himself or the Labour party any favours.
This is incorrect Noel.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
Had this debate taken place before Maastricht I daresay that the same point would have been made - Remain is a clearly defined option.
But since then we have had:
Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon Treaties.
We've had the ERM debacle.
The number of nations has almost doubled with most of them net costs on the EU budget.
Half the UK rebate was given up in exchange for reform of CAP which never happened.
The UK's voting weight within the EU has been watered down at Council and Parliament.
Our trade with the EU has fallen from around 60% of our international trade to around 40%.
Grants have been given directly or indirectly to UK based manufacturers to move to other areas of Europe.
That's gradual drift over 25 years.
So no one can tell what the gradual drift will be over the next 25 years.