So you know what's going to be in the British bill of rights before its written? Or are you guessing?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
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So you know what's going to be in the British bill of rights before its written? Or are you guessing?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
On a related topic I am pleased to see that Theresa May has ruled out membership of the Single Market. This means we will not be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice after we leave and will be able to make all our own laws. Likewise she has given a strong indication that the UK will leave the Customs Union, which means we can sign our own trade details. Lots of countries have expressed a strong interest so we should start negotiating them now even if they can't be signed and come into effect until we leave.
I find the SNP position on this amusing.
How dare you drag Scotland out of the single market!!!!
But their policy is to drag Scotland out of it's single and most important market.
They have also showed surprising concern in the Commons about the Irish border problem, whilst seeking to create a similar and perhaps more significant problem along Hadrians Wall.
As I think I may have said before the Scots should not have had a vote in the referendum as surely a condition of taking part is that you abide by the decision whatever it may be.
Along Hadrian's Wall? So they are claiming most of Northumberland and a bit of Cumbria ? That really will cause a "significant problem". :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
According to Scotland.org Scotland's top export markets are:Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
USA
Netherlands
France
Germany
They're big seafood exporters, especially salmon and langoustines, and obviously whisky is a massive export for them. Apparently there is more Scottish whisky sold in France each month than Cognac in a year!
And if they leave the U.K. it will be with the aim of remaining in the EU
Scotlands biggest export market by a country mile is England and always will be barring an apocalypse south of Gretna.
I don't think they give two fecks what you find amusing, you're not the audience being played too. Additionally I believe they're now on record stating the economic penalties of leaving the UK will be worth it to achieve independence from Westminster.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Whether you like it or not, that's not how democracy works. Scotland is a separate country, albeit not a separate sovereign state. And with the degree of separateness it has comes the legitimacy to say "**** this, we're off"Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfella
To me Mays comments looked like the unofficial early negotiations with the EU, I still consider Westminster to be the biggest threat to Brexit with some horrible uncertain turd that been polished.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I assume therefore that as the UK is still a full member of the EU it is included in ALL EU discussions including how hypothetically a member state wanting to leave would be handled.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
Once A50 is triggered I'm not 100% certain but I'd assume so. But realistically if Scotland does dig a trench along Hadrians wall the timeframe is unlikely to be shorter than the UKs exit.
Some reasonably well balanced opinion pieces I read indicated that Scotland would leave the EU with the UK, then leave the UK, then join the EU.
Worth remembering wee nippy has been bleating on about a 2nd referendum for a relatively long time now without actually calling it.
I'm really curious as to the results of the big conversation national survey which allegedly was intended to gather feedback on how to move towards independence. But it was deeply flawed as you needed to indicate how you voted in the referendum and give details such as name and address. And the few I spoke to that voted no refused to participate, if that behaviour is common all they've done is survey people that voted yes.
As a leave supporter in the EU referendum and seeing the full weight of project fear from the British Establishment I am a little more sympathetic to the SNP's economic case than I was in 2014. But isn't there just a teensy weensy flaw in Nicola Sturgeon's argument?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
According to her if Britain leaves the single market it will be hugely damaging to the Scottish economy and cost lots of jobs. I would question that but ok I can see why some people would make the argument. But according to the Scottish Government's own figures, Scotland exports 64.4% to the rest of the UK, 20.2% to the rest of the world and only 15.4% to the EU. So how does becoming independent from the UK, joining the EU and thereby not being a member of the UK's single market make sense?
But didn't they already have a referendum and said pretty convincingly "we're not "****ing off? It was only just over two years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
Of course the Scots did vote even more convincingly that they wanted to stay in the EU, that has to be acknowledged. But as Nicola Sturgeon is finding out (if polls are to be believed!!) that is not the same as saying if the UK leaves the EU, the Scots will want to leave the UK. Perhaps they can see through Nicola Sturgeon's bluster and see the incredibly obvious contradiction in her position that I mentioned in my last post.
Yes but...Quote:
But didn't they already have a referendum and said pretty convincingly "we're not "****ing off? It was only just over two years ago.
The equivalent for you would be a remain vote on the EU referendum then electing UKIP into government.
Not sure that's a good analogy. Hard to imagine many circumstances where UKIP would muster enough support to form a Government.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
Anyway, let's look at this another way. Before the referendum there was some talk about the possibility of England voting leave (narrowly) but that the UK would vote remain overall because Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain. I would have accepted that result (you'll have to take my word for it :)) because we are one United Kingdom.
That is the way I look at it. Scotland voted to remain in the UK knowing that Cameron had promised a referendum on the EU before the end of 2017. We made the decision on the EU as the United Kingdom.
Politicians have slightly longer memories than the public. All politicians are now very wary of referendums, so I can't see another one for Scotland for at least another 30 years.
To those Scots wanting to leave: "once in a generation"; you've had your chance.
Pretty much the same as those wanting another referendum on the UK staying in the EU.
Mrs May looked very tired yesterday, haunted almost. The last 6 months or so have taken it out of her. She said her piece though and I hope now we can make a clean break and start getting our house in order. Removing the red tape and laws - including the European human rights legislation - associated with the injustices some of us have read about over the decades.
Will it happen is it likely? It could but we've got too many people in this country that are the soul mates of the Brussels bureaucrats. Remember when we were told to stop selling in pounds and ounces? It wasn't meddlers in Brussels that congregated at local markets to confiscate greengrocers scales. It was overzealous Brits usually of Labour councils. That's what we're up against.
Even people on here. One of which considers a potential human rights bill drawn up by the British government as morally worse than a human rights act drawn up by European countries on the basis that the other European countries have a monopoly on morality. And that's before he's even seen what's in the British bill.
So it'll be a tough ask but the brexiteers mustn't stop at brexit. We've got to demand less/minimum government and more control over our own lives. If we don't then what's the point. We may as well have remained.
In fact, dwelling on things as I do, if Scotland were to become independent it would make more sense not to join the EU but given the importance of the UK market to it making a separate close FTA with the UK. After all it exports more than 4 times as much to the UK as the EU.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Most analogies are a bit naff tbh. The reality in Scotland is that there is a pro independence party in power. There's always going to be significant political manoeuvring on the matter.Quote:
Not sure that's a good analogy. Hard to imagine many circumstances where UKIP would muster enough support to form a Government.
But Christopher, we voted for the restoration of British sovereignty and democracy. That means accepting we get what we vote for. If we elect a Labour Government and they make a mess of the economy as usual then so be it. We have the option of ejecting them from Government after five years. That's much better than the current state of affairs where we are subject to unelected EU commissioners and the European Court of Justice.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
That's pretty much the view of the majority in Scotland as far as I can tell. However to those that want independence it doesn't matter and however many attempts it takes is acceptable. And to a degree that's the audience the pro independence parties are playing too.Quote:
To those Scots wanting to leave: "once in a generation"; you've had your chance.
Pretty much the same as those wanting another referendum on the UK staying in the EU.
As mentioned above, anyone outside of the Scottish electorate is an irrelevance. Your perceptions and opinions aren't factors regardless of how logical or pragmatic.
I know. It'll be an improvement in that respect. I just hope this country doesn't elect meddlers worse than Brussels.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
It's always a risk Chris, But the point is that it is always reversible unlike remaining in the EU. Leave were able to build a broad coalition on the basis of parliamentary sovereignty, e.g. Labour figures like Gisela Stewart. Had Tony Benn been alive he would have been firmly in the Leave camp. He famously said that he would rather have a bad parliament than a good king. We prosper or decline by our own decisions. That is how it should be.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
That cuts through all the bluster very nicely.Good,nonemotive summary of the sensible reason for voting leave.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
They went through the figures today on the Daily Politics. It was around £45B Scottish exports to rest of UK and only £10B to EU per annum on latest figures for 2015, although new ones are due out anytime soon for 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
what isn't clear to me is it up to SNP if they want to hold a referendum or do they need Westminster to agree?Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Also presumably if they leave the UK after Article 50 they are out of the EU same as rest of UK? Can't fathom the scottish independance and even if they can do it how they will not be even worse off?
It's granted by Westminster. But... in practice they theoretically could hold one without Westminster approval and UDI, assuming the result carried enough credibility/majority to gain acceptance internationally. Which in turn would apply international political force upon Westminster to accept the result. You don't necessarily need the approval of the controlling entity to achieve the goal. And there's a fair few that hold this as an acceptable route. There's also a fair few who don't.Quote:
what isn't clear to me is it up to SNP if they want to hold a referendum or do they need Westminster to agree?
What's to fathom? there's enough of a difference (real and perceived)in culture, both social and political that a significant chunk of the Scottish Electorate don't want to follow the same path as the rest of the UK. And for many in that chunk short and medium term impoverishment is a price worth paying to be able to choose their own way. They consider themselves Scots not Brits and have no real attachment to the Union. Neither do I to be fair.Quote:
Also presumably if they leave the UK after Article 50 they are out of the EU same as rest of UK? Can't fathom the scottish independance and even if they can do it how they will not be even worse off?
They need the permission on Westminster. They have stated that they may hold one without an Act of Parliament, but then that definitely wouldn't be binding, but it would create a real constitutional difficulty, but that was always going to be the case when we set up 3 assemblies for the Celtic nations, all with differing powers and nothing for England.Quote:
Originally Posted by luxinterior
Nick Clegg on Marr. This is a bloke who has constantly complained about lies, misleading statements by the Leave campaign.
This morning when responding to Marr he said that if through new trade deals we doubled trade with USA, Canada, NZ then it would not be enough to replace the trade with the EU.
That statement is shaped to make people think we risk losing all our trade with the EU.
I accept we might lose some trade with the EU, 5%, 10%, maybe even 15% and it would be gradual if it were to happen.
So FTAs would be looking at gradual increase in trade over time and it is realistic to be able to replace any lost trade with teh EU with trade elsewhere.
Also, if May can deliver on or close to the plan she outlined, trade with the EU should be largely unaffected anyway.
So his statement is misleading, he was using statistics that have no relevance to any likely scenario.
He has form for it. Clegg is one of several remain politicians that have previously claimed we would lose 3 to 4 million jobs if we left the EU. Clegg made this claim prominently in his televised debate with Farage in 2014. It imples that trade with the EU would cease completely. Even in such a bizarre circumstance that number wouldn't be lost because of the effect of import substitution i.e. more internal demand for products form UK firms.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
I wonder if Clegg believes that Remain lies are good honest lies.
Still pleased we've voted out! The sooner the better!
I reserve the right to fundamentally disagree with you, but only time will tell.Quote:
Originally Posted by Damian Kimmins
No, I'm definitely pleased! :) The thing is, I don't even care about the economic downturn it might produce.
Troll alert.
Some analysis of who voted for what;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034
Snapshot for the TLDR
Quote:
The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters - populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave. (The data for this analysis comes from one in nine wards)
The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census
The age of voters was also important, with older electorates more likely to choose Leave
Ethnicity was crucial in some places, with ethnic minority areas generally more likely to back Remain. However this varied, and in parts of London some Asian populations were more likely to support Leave
The combination of education, age and ethnicity accounts for the large majority of the variation in votes between different places
Across the country and in many council districts we can point out stark contrasts between localities which most favoured Leave or Remain
There was a broad pattern in several urban areas of deprived, predominantly white, housing estates towards the urban periphery voting Leave, while inner cities with high numbers of ethnic minorities and/or students voted Remain
Around 270 locations can be identified where the local outcome was in the opposite direction to the broader official counting area, including parts of Scotland which backed Leave and a Cornwall constituency which voted Remain
Postal voters appear narrowly more likely to have backed Remain than those who voted in a polling station
Isn't anyone else getting tired of analysing the vote? It is just another way of getting a tad divisive in a referendum vote that was made as a whole country!
Initially, having voted leave, I was a racist, now it turns out I'm a thicko too.
Do these analyses produce anything of meaning?
Yes. I'd suggest it highlights that those more disenfranchised with the system have found a voice and a lever to effect change. It's also providing an indicator that (assuming they remain engaged) the political elites will have continue listening to them in the future. That's a significant shift in societal influence if it can be maintained. That's a big if admittedly.
You'd know that if you'd at least got your Masters. Badumtish!!!
More seriously, the analysis also doesn't preclude higher education and voting leave. It's claiming to have found a trend. And finally, educational attainment isn't always a good indicator of intelligence. Unfortunately it's seems that its often culture that leads to a good education, not ability.