Brexit

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

You'll be pleased to know that I'm not going to disappoint you. A vote for the Brexit party could indeed put the Labour party in power if the polls narrow from where they are at the moment. This is entirely down to our electoral system, which means the Leave vote will be split in some constituencies. This could deny the Conservative candidate victory with a LibDem or Labour candidate coming through the middle to win instead. In fact this is exactly what did happen at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election in August.

And no it doesn't work the other way around just as well. At the moment the average poll ranking has the Tories on 39% with the Brexit party on only 10%. In 2015 UKIP won 12.6% of the vote but picked up only one seat. I doubt the Brexit party will win any but they'll surely deny the Tories a fair number.


What is it about the deal Boris agreed that makes you think it is like remaining? The vast majority of people who have been euro-sceptics for many years would disagree with you. And that includes people in the Brexit party like the MEP John Longworth. I think there has already been a couple of Brexit party candidates who have stood down because they disagree with Farage. Even Arron Banks, his old chum and campaign donor has said he supports Boris' deal.

Let's be honest there could have been nothing that Boris had agreed that Farage would accept. He would prefer Brexit not to happen at all than lose the limelight. Dare I say it perhaps he enjoys the trappings of the Brussels gravy train a bit too much.

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Here's why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2pr1AyTrIQ

Muddy the Tories are a tribal party. They backed Boris as PM so they're prepared to swallow this Brexit sell out. Look at Rees-Mogg - who I like - saying we'd be a vassal state under Mrs May's deal then on the third time of asking he voted for it. The Tories have no principles except one, compromise. But as stated earlier a compromise on Brexit is Remain.

We're going to see over the coming month who argues the most consistently. Who presents the detail in Boris' deal in the most convincing way. I don't think it will be Boris because as demonstrated in parliament he hasn't grasped the details.

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Well Richard whilst I wouldn't wish to bruise your ego (I rarely attempt the impossible :)) top fell runners have never been known to waste their time posting on the Forum, so "of sorts" is a fairly safe description.

However if eg Oracle is now revealed to be a current multi-Championship, international mountain runner then I may have to asterix my description to allow for this exception.

But in all modesty...

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Of course they have Graham. Remember Saz? I do.

Not bad, but if it makes you happy, Saz can be seen as the test of the rule.

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Not bad, but if it makes you happy, Saz can be seen as the test of the rule.

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It makes me happy to know you're wrong not just on Brexit and Pantani.

Oh and Teresa May:)

May? I bear that cross but
schadenfreude is so unworthy of you CL! ☹️

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Originally Posted by CL

Here's why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2pr1AyTrIQ

Muddy the Tories are a tribal party. They backed Boris as PM so they're prepared to swallow this Brexit sell out. Look at Rees-Mogg - who I like - saying we'd be a vassal state under Mrs May's deal then on the third time of asking he voted for it. The Tories have no principles except one, compromise. But as stated earlier a compromise on Brexit is Remain.

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Some Tories never voted for May’s deal even at the third time of asking. You didn’t answer my point about the non-Tories who are backing Johnson’s deal e.g. Arron Banks. As I said some Brexit candidates have stood down, the one for Workington even begging others to do likewise to avoid splitting the Leave vote.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

Some Tories never voted for May’s deal even at the third time of asking. You didn’t answer my point about the non-Tories who are backing Johnson’s deal e.g. Arron Banks. As I said some Brexit candidates have stood down, the one for Workington even begging others to do likewise to avoid splitting the Leave vote.

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Have they read the treaty? Do they know what's in there? Remember Johnson agreed the treaty on a Thursday and put it to the house on a Saturday. What I do know is Johnson didn't seem to know that putting a border in the Irish sea would result in paperwork on the Irish side. It's clear from this channel 4 newscast that Boris doesn't understand the detail. And if he doesn't then the Tory Brexiteers don't either or they do and have decided to be tribal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chmB-Xk--qw

One former Tory Ann Widdecombe made the point that the Tory papers keep saying in true Muddy style 'vote Brexit Party get Corbyn,' to which she replied "vote Brexit Party get Brexit." I liked that. And isn't that the truth since they are the only party now who offer a true Brexit?

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Originally Posted by CL

Have they read the treaty? Do they know what's in there? Remember Johnson agreed the treaty on a Thursday and put it to the house on a Saturday. What I do know is Johnson didn't seem to know that putting a border in the Irish sea would result in paperwork on the Irish side. It's clear from this channel 4 newscast that Boris doesn't understand the detail. And if he doesn't then the Tory Brexiteers don't either or they do and have decided to be tribal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chmB-Xk--qw

One former Tory Ann Widdecombe made the point that the Tory papers keep saying in true Muddy style 'vote Brexit Party get Corbyn,' to which she replied "vote Brexit Party get Brexit." I liked that. And isn't that the truth since they are the only party now who offer a true Brexit?

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One problem is that no one knows the detail because it hasn't been thrashed out yet.

You hear talk of tariffs, but of course if we agree an FTA tariffs are almost irrelevant and might only affect goods of a different origin.

Even then, a sensible risk assessment would rule out many lower duty goods and any scrutiny should only apply to higher duty goods, or perhaps goods that one party has anti-dumping measures on which the other doesn't.

So we only have a system in outline.

Filling out a manifest really isn't a problem to businesses. Most of us do it now. In fact DHL implemented a system of using 3 x Commercial Invoices with C/O and harmonised tariff code on all consignments to EU since March.

ie. WTO procedure.

DPD advise that even in no-deal scenario, they have an arrangement where customs clearance fee is a flat rate £1.

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Originally Posted by CL

Have they read the treaty? Do they know what's in there? Remember Johnson agreed the treaty on a Thursday and put it to the house on a Saturday. What I do know is Johnson didn't seem to know that putting a border in the Irish sea would result in paperwork on the Irish side. It's clear from this channel 4 newscast that Boris doesn't understand the detail. And if he doesn't then the Tory Brexiteers don't either or they do and have decided to be tribal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chmB-Xk--qw

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You keep talking about "Tory Brexiteers" but you're still ignoring the non-Tories (including Brexit Party candidates) who back the deal and think Farage is wrong.

Here is one person who I have no doubt has read the agreement from cover to cover. He is the legal expert Martin Howe who was a sharp critic of May's deal, which he had forensically scrutinised.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...t-brexit-name/

In case you're not a Telegraph subscriber, the key argument I think is this:

"a word-for-word comparison of the Political Declaration (PD) which sets out the future EU-UK relationship with its previous Theresa May version reveals that it has been amended in vital respects. The PD is important because it is linked to a legal obligation on both parties to use “best endeavours in good faith” to negotiate an agreement in line with its principles.

The PD as amended now clearly foreshadows a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU and not a customs union. The difference is vital because an FTA, unlike a customs union, allows us to set our own tariffs with third countries and to operate our own independent trade policy.

Obligations in the PD for the UK to align our future rules to EU rules have been deleted, and any alignment will be optional. The so-called “level playing field” commitments in the PD have been changed. The previous commitment to shadow the EU rules on competition and state aids in Theresa May’s WA has been replaced with a more open ended commitment not to distort competition similar to that in many FTAs."

He does admit that some problems remain in Johnson's deal:

"But they do not make the deal Brino and do not stop us achieving the fundamental objective of Brexit which is to restore our independence and sovereignty over our laws, borders, money and international trade.

My own preference would be for us all to get into a time machine and travel back to 2016, avoid the disastrous May premiership and instead have a competent and determined PM conduct the negotiations with the EU. The enormous strides which Boris Johnson has made in changing a supposedly “unreopenable” deal in a few short months demonstrate that we could have got a wholly different and much better deal.

But we must deal with the world as it is rather than the world as we would like it to be. This is something that Nigel Farage should bear in mind now."