Are we to assume that you didn't and don't vote then Geoff?Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffB
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Are we to assume that you didn't and don't vote then Geoff?Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffB
No one has any excuse for not studying the possible implications of leaving the European Union, including the possibility of ending up with a remainer in power. Theresa May is attempting to stitch 'leavers' up with a Brexit in name only. She's a player and the essence of such is to set one against the other, whether it be friends, work colleagues etc. Then stand and watch whilst all hell breaks loose. Players can never be trusted.
I thought the European Union was acting on principle when they said you can't have as good a deal out as in. But since Trump's deal last week that seems to be false. It's about money.
Any chance we'll learn from his methods? I doubt it we're too weak and divided.
One of the skills of being a good negotiator is to appear inept - it disarms the other side.Others include never to reveal at what point you won't do a deal, don't negotiate in public, tell your own side only enough to keep them on board but no more than that, make the other side think they got a great deal and tell your own side the same, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
Sometimes I think Theresa May is smarter than many people think.
But I don't understand how that applies to Mrs May. She's already agreed to hand over 40billion without anything in return. And now she has effectively told them at what point she won't do a deal with the Chequers 'take it or leave it' offer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
I thought the same about her at one point Graham. Was she about to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Then I decided that the rabbit was no way near the hat to be pulled out from.
There was a fella on Newsnight last night from a sandwich association panicking because he thought WTO rules would see key ingredients purchased from Spain and France delayed at the border.
But instead of appearing like a victim in a Peter Cushing horror movie why doesn't he contact his suppliers and get them to lobby/pressure their governments into giving both sides a free trade deal. I bet he hasn't done that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
There will be no rabbits.
Until the deal is signed everything is part of the game and every public utterance is just PR/posturing/bombast/bluff...
What only Mrs May knows is where her real "walk away - no deal" line is, faced with a pitifully weak negotiating hand and if observers knew what she really thinks she would be useless as a negotiator.
So let's hope she isn't .
The problem is the Chequers plan the Government has presented to the EU is already a very bad deal and that's before it gets watered down even further in negotiation with the European Commission. It effectively keeps the UK under the jurisdiction of the ECJ and makes it extremely difficult if not impossible to sign trade deals with other countries. We are leaving the EU but in name only, effectively as a vassal state.Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
The Government has made a complete dog's dinner of the negotiations and I can't decide whether this is due to serial incompetence or because the politicians and officials involved never wanted to leave in the first place and therefore wanted to keep as much of the old arrangements as possible. We started with an excellent negotiating hand in the form of our budget contributions and our huge trade deficit with the EU but this has been thrown away. Mistakes include:
- Agreeing to pay £39 billion exit fee without getting a trade deal in return.
- Agreeing to the Irish backstop.
- Making next to no preparations for a no-deal scenario.
No wonder Trump thinks we are idiots.
The Government has acted under the delusion that it could give concessions to the European Commission and that they would reciprocate. But they were warned by the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis what would happen from his own experience of trying to negotiate with them in 2015.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...at-theresa-may
I'm coming round to the view that the only way to save Brexit is to take the EEA (Norway) option as a half way staging post. This involves accepting many of the rules of the single market but we would be out of the Customs Union and CAP so could sign our own trade deals. It would require no agreement from the EU and would immediately take the £39 billion divorce bill off the table. At a stroke it would increase our negotiating strength and remove the ticking clock giving us time to negotiate a trade deal with the EU (Canada plus) for when we left the EEA. In the meantime the Government could make plans to adopt the WTO option if talks failed.
https://capx.co/the-norway-option-can-save-brexit/
In fact Varoufakis suggested this approach all along.
Yup. We spit in your face, undermine your entire structure and expect tea and scones after an amicable hand shake.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Incredible!
(And Boris Johnson should be hanged, drawn and quartered for high treason).
I don't follow your logic. The EU is quite happy to do trade deals with other countries that are not in the EU including Switzerland, which is right at its heart. If the EU is on a process of ever closer union with the view to creating a European federal state what sense does it make for us to go along with it? In fact the EU had a golden chance to keep the UK in if it had wanted to do so. It could have accepted that not all countries want to be so closely integrated and agreed to Cameron's modest proposals. Instead they sent him home with his tail between his legs. Had they compromised there is every chance the referendum result would have gone the other way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
What are people's views on the ECJ? I've heard people who are vehemently opposed to it, but I've not heard many of the details of why.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I note that even if the UK leaves the EU entirely, UK companies trading with the EU will still be under its jurisdiction (as the US company Google was recently).
Different times. Different political agendas. Different mistakes. Different people.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
People. It is not countries negotiating here. It is a few people across a table- maybe only two in reality. And whatever the outcome those two/few people will "sell" the deal as a success.
People. Do you think if Donald Trump had been hired to do the negotiating rather than that buffoon David Davis we would be where we are now?
If you export goods and services to the EU you need to follow the rules of the ECJ. That's not a problem, likewise if you traded in Japan then you would be under the jurisdiction of the Japanese courts for those goods and services. But most companies in the UK don't export to the EU but are still subject to the ECJ's regulations. I believe that only 12% of UK GDP is made up from exports to the EU.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
I think Boris had it about right on this. If Trump had been in charge there would have been a huge hullabaloo for a while and things would have appeared very fraught. But ultimately his tough stance may well have worked.Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
As for Davis I don't blame him because he was sidelined by May in favour of the civil servant Oliver Robins. Davis' proposal, which was to seek mutual recognition in standards rather than acceptance of the ECJ's "common" rule book was rejected by May and Robins.
[QUOTE=Graham Breeze;642267
People. Do you think if Donald Trump had been hired to do the negotiating rather than that buffoon David Davis we would be where we are now?[/QUOTE]
If Trump had been involved he would have done EXACTLY what his Master Putin told him to do - which most likely would have been to ensure maximum chaos/disruption as possible in Europe.
Absolutely. Teresa is a micro-manager and likes to control every aspects of everything. That's why she's a "difficult woman to deal with". This works when you only have one department to deal with - like she did in the past. Now, however, she needs to manage a team of ministers - which requires a very different skill-set.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
It's frustrating that poor man-management is dictating such historic events. Where's Gareth Southgate when you need him? :)
Most politicians are just yes people to the numpties at the top.
We never stood a chance of a good deal.
Aye well, never worry about somat yer can't change.
Turkey is lovely at this time of the year 😎👍
When I used to help out training managers in industrial relations negotiation one of the opening questions in the role play could be "are you in a position to agree a deal today or will you have to go back and 'ask your dad'?" It was, of course, an unfair question to establish who was in control - but I suspect Barnier would probably answer "Yes. I can agree a deal" with some confidence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
"Yes" to which question, Graham? I see two there, or is that the intention?
Text amended!Quote:
Originally Posted by BritNick
There is nothing gnomic about me!
:D/
Not right now, thanks. I prefer it when it's cooled down a bit...Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
...in a sandwich on boxing day perhaps.
Are we out yet.
Can't we just say thanks a lot and see you later?
No, it’s called democracy - we can’t just leave the Brexit situation. People voted for us to go that way
Nah, this will rumble on for years and years yet regardless of what the end relationship ends up being. And there will be one. It also looks like some are trying to start can kicking already.
And that’s before any internal political consequences from a changed economic and political landscapes. You need to settle in for the long run on this one, the pro EU mob aren’t going away, although they may end up being laughed at like the early UKIP days, which worked out well. So we’ll be more divided than we have for a long time as well.
A year or two of even mild recession will prolong the squabbling even further.
We can’t ignore the EU, something has to be decided. Whether that leaves us richer or poorer (not just in terms of money), and over what time frame we have yet to see. Looking like a shit show at the minute. But then we never voted on what leave actually means beyond just leave.
Hopefully May will play another strategic blinder like the last election which left her strong and..... ��
So what do people think of Teresa May's plan?
As a remainer and from my initial understanding of it, I think it's good that we're not leaving the free trade area, good that we are leaving the CAP, but bad that we're ending free movement. But then I concede that free movement of people was a large part of what people voted against, so it's reasonable that this should end on some level. I've yet to hear the details regarding ongoing payments for access to the free trade area, and how bound we are to the rules associated with this (and what if any veto we get over those rules).
The DUP look like the have been sucessfull in destroying any chance of the UK entering this new world of free trade deals.
Not that it matters, as it looks like it is dead in the water.
Some of the Brexiteers among you may be blaming the Irish goverment for this situation, but you must understand how integrated social and business life is between The Republic and N.I.
There are 208 crossing points between the two, which is more crossing points than down the whole eastern border of the EU.
The route of the border is nonsensical , it is a result of gerrymandering to maximise the Protestant population in N.I.
The last line is crucial.
"There were just 20 border crossings open during the Troubles, but today hundreds of border roads blocked during the years of conflict are now back in use."
The Irish Goverment and local border communties just will not accept going back to the past. The vote in N.I was split with the NE area (around Belfast) voting leave, while the rest voted remain.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/north...ublic-1361129/
The Irish Goverment, Tony Blair and John Major were warning about this during the campaign but nobody was listening.
Indeed but the bigger problem was that the Brexiteers never even started thinking. Did people really believe the UK could just say: "Well thanks for having us, but bye-bye now and while we in the UK will now do whatever we want we do hope we can all stay friends"?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
I for one certainly am. It has been the willing accomplice in the EU's attempt tie the UK into obeying its regulations and prevent it from signing trade agreements with other countries. The whole hard border issue is a complete red herring and Theresa May was completely incompetent in being duped into agreeing to the Irish backstop last December. The UK, Irish Government, and EU have all said that they don't want a hard border so if nobody builds it there won't be one.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Interesting article from the Labour MP Kate Hoey.
https://labourlist.org/2018/11/kate-...nts-hypocrisy/
As she says:
"It is conveniently forgotten that those barriers were only there when the IRA was active, bombing and killing our soldiers and police officers. A border is there at the moment, although not visible. The Irish Republic has different excise duties, VAT rates and currency to the UK. Yet all those differences are handled remotely by technology and pre-paperwork. If intelligence arouses suspicion about smuggling, the vehicle will be stopped. In other words, with good will and cooperation, there is no need for any new structures."
Her comments with regard to Voisinage fishing agreement also demonstrate how dishonourably the Irish Government is acting.
I wonder how popular Leo Varadkar will be with the Irish public if his actions lead to no deal, where Ireland will be affected almost as much as the UK.
Let's turn that on its head. Why should the fact that we are leaving the EU mean that we have to be treated as an enemy? Why cannot relations be cordial in the same way as they are between the EU and Switzerland, which is not in the EU?Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
The truth is that the EU is terrified that Britain will be successful outside the EU and that other countries will want to follow. But if being a member of the EU is so great then why should they need to treat us more harshly than other non-EU European countries? Surely the benefits of membership should be self evident.
You make it sound like the EU thought this "border issue" up and got the Irish Goverment on board. It was very much the Irish Goverment that have been screeming about this ever since the referendum was called.
Security borders and trade borders are not the same thing. During "The Troubles" the border was manned to stop the IRA, etc, launching attacks from safe areas on the other side of the border.
There has NEVER been a trade border on the island of Ireland.
Both EU and WTO rules stiplulate that there HAS to be one.
No matter what deal is finally done, if any, Ireland will be the looser. Do you know that Ireland is the UK's 5th biggest trading partner, and the UK has a trade surpulus with Ireland.
I though they were really bending the rules to do the opposite.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
There is a border now but an invisible one.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
The Dutch customs expert Hans Maessen calls this a "fictitious problem", which of course it is.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46213434
Which part of Switzerland is required to be hived off from the rest and expected to remain in the single market?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Why is that Switzerland (and Norway) can exist outiside the customs union yet we cannot unless we satisfy our EU overlords that we have solved the non-existent problem of the Irish backstop?
Does he now! - " Mr Maessen, who has advised the pro-Brexit ERG"
Maybe you need to try a bit harder, why not have a read of this.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brex...norway-sweden/
‘My advice to the UK when they leave the EU is: Don’t build the border station too small, you need plenty of space.’
That does not sound very invisible.
And this is two countries in the single market, which the UK wants to leave
Presumably the ERG were looking for advice on customs arrangements and decided to ask an expert. Not sure what is sinister about that.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
It has to be the right type of expert, what could possibly be wrong with that, Oh wait MMR....Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
It's actually worse than Brexit in name only. My prediction is that it won't get through Parliament. We will end up with a new referendum where the choice is between this atrocious deal and remaining i.e. no choice at all. I won't bother.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
The lesson to be learned is that us plebs need to know our place, the Establishment always wins in the end.
Nope, that is not it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
In the scottish referendum the SNP produced a comprehensive document "Scotland's Future your guide to an independent Scotland" detailing Scotland's future as an independent nation. That document was analyzed to death durning the two year campaign. People on balance decided it did not work for them and voted No.
It is 670 pages
https://www2.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf
Where was the document detailing the UK future outside the EU?
People voted on the basis of propaganda and sound bites.
Many people are now realizing that what they voted for is not materializing, in fact it was never on the table, and are angry about it.
He is the ex president of the Dutch customs association. He is also an advisor to Go EU Commerce. I imagine he may know what he is talking about.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Too right they're angry - they have been betrayed. It's not failed because an SNP type document hasn't been produced. It's failed because the people charged with carrying out are remainers so they never believed in Brexit. They saw it as an exercise in damage limitation not an opportunity. They have failed to use the UK's strong negotiating cards, the £40 billion exit bill, the fact that the EU has a large trade surplus with the UK and also our important contribution to European security. Worst of all is Phillip Hammond's criminal refusal to plan for no-deal. How can you take part in a negotiation without being prepared to walk away?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
I admit this is partly the fault of some of the Brexiteers who could have taken the reins just after the referendum (i.e. Michael Gove stabbing Boris in the back).