Coronavirus

You are limiting to UK.

There are more profound differences also abroad: Why is the disease not rampant in sub Saharan Africa, India or Pakistan?Where health services are minimal and distancing/ cleanliness almost impossible.
OH thinks it is an autoimmune response, which happen in clean western societies.
The so called cytokine storm an example.

Whilst EU features generally it is interesting to note that Germany has much lower asthma than other European countries. Not all countries are identical
Belgium which tests as many people prorata as Germany has had the worst time of all.

It is time the critics and nay sayers recognised, there is a lot medicine does not know, so all these “ government should have dones “ are 2020 hindisghtthe
The chief Swedish epidemiologist is very critical of the imperial model on which our response is based Most of these models are a guess no more.

One which interests me. 2 percent of population work in nhs. Of 20000 deaths , that is 400 expected deaths of current or ex nhs employees. To date there are only 30 current staff fatalities. Could it be that by the time people reach hospital they are no longer infectious? Contrast 15 percent of Ebola medical personnel died. It is simply not true of this. I await proof that NHS front line staff are at massive increased risk. The numbers don’t appear to say so.

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Because what is needed is a robust statistical analysis. It is very easy to jump to wrong conclusions.

My g.daughter is part of the Covid 19 team at St James, Leeds so she has been dealing with Covid 19 patients everyday for weeks and pointed this out to her mother (also a Nurse) long before the media woke up. I have also discussed it (as part of general Covid 19 discussions) with my son (a Consultant at Leeds General). There are many intriguing aspects to the disease eg the male/female morbidity differences, children/adult, obesity factor etc and BAME communities may be one.

The DT today reports on the - much more straightforward - obesity factor as "not clear" and quotes Prof. Openshaw who provides three different reasons which may be a factor!

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The Government has made some huge errors.
They assumed they could control the rate of infection, and flatten/steepen the curve at will.
They assumed only the old/frail/those with significant pre-existing conditions would die, and that the public would accept this, as long as it was not because of the NHS being "full".
They assumed the NHS limitations were beds and ventilators, not realising that apparently simple things like PPE could be crucial.
Not wanting the NHS to be full, they decided to make sure that those in care who did get admitted to hospital were discharged ASAP, without Covid testing, assuming care homes could cope.
The result has been thousands of unnecessary deaths.
And I have not touched on the years of underfunding of the NHS, of the Care sector, and of the people, particularly the nurses, that work in them.
And the scramble for ventilators, PPE, tests for Covid RNA and Covid antibodies, and a vaccine, shows that when it comes to the crunch globalisation does not work, and that Brexit will be a disaster. We need to cooperate with our European neighbours to sort out these issues.
I don't think history will look kindly on those currently in office.

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Originally Posted by Oracle

You are limiting to UK.

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Not at all.

I wrote: "It is very easy to jump to wrong conclusions" (like saying "Italians are gregarious and so will have a very high death rate").

I've been to India several times so I know what their hygiene is like (and China,Viet Nam,Cambodia,Thailand,Indonesia,...) and the picture there is interesting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Oracle

You are limiting to UK.

There are more profound differences also abroad: Why is the disease not rampant in sub Saharan Africa, India or Pakistan?Where health services are minimal and distancing/ cleanliness almost impossible.
OH thinks it is an autoimmune response, which happen in clean western societies.
The so called cytokine storm an example.

Whilst EU features generally it is interesting to note that Germany has much lower asthma than other European countries. Not all countries are identical
Belgium which tests as many people prorata as Germany has had the worst time of all.

It is time the critics and nay sayers recognised, there is a lot medicine does not know, so all these “ government should have dones “ are 2020 hindisghtthe
The chief Swedish epidemiologist is very critical of the imperial model on which our response is based Most of these models are a guess no more.

One which interests me. 2 percent of population work in nhs. Of 20000 deaths , that is 400 expected deaths of current or ex nhs employees. To date there are only 30 current staff fatalities. Could it be that by the time people reach hospital they are no longer infectious? Contrast 15 percent of Ebola medical personnel died. It is simply not true of this. I await proof that NHS front line staff are at massive increased risk. The numbers don’t appear to say so.

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Covid has barely started in Africa/India/Pakistan - the numbers will rise exponentially soon enough, unfortunately. Being clean - or not - is almost certainly irrelevant. It does not help them when it comes to TB, Malaria, HIV, pneumonia, diarrhoea ...
A lot of what the UK should have done has nothing to do with the wisdom of hindsight - other countries were showing the way, but "We" knew better.
It is my understanding that over 60 NHS and Social Care workers have died so far, hardly a trivial number, given that they are of working age with good access to health care. And this is only the beginning. Ebola, whilst much more fatal - roughly 50% - is much harder to catch. If, when caring for Ebola patients, you catch it, you made a mistake with your PPE, or were extremely unlucky. This does not apply to Covid 19 - it is much more infectious, and unlike Ebola, it is infectious before symptoms develop, and sometimes in the absence of any symptoms. So that chap who came off his motorbike and broke his leg could be carrying it, thus exposing NHS staff who are not necessarily fully PPE protected.

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Originally Posted by Mike T

The Government has made some huge errors.

They assumed the NHS limitations were beds and ventilators, not realising that apparently simple things like PPE could be crucial.

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Who would have thought?

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
For want of the shoe, the horse was lost;
For want of the horse, the rider was lost;
For want of the rider, the battle was lost;
For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost;
And all from the want of a horseshoe nail.

Utter rubbish.
On all counts.

Meanwhile in the real world...most of us have to live in...

Spare us the party political broadcast.

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Originally Posted by Mike T

The Government has made some huge errors.
They assumed they could control the rate of infection, and flatten/steepen the curve at will.
They assumed only the old/frail/those with significant pre-existing conditions would die, and that the public would accept this, as long as it was not because of the NHS being "full".
They assumed the NHS limitations were beds and ventilators, not realising that apparently simple things like PPE could be crucial.
Not wanting the NHS to be full, they decided to make sure that those in care who did get admitted to hospital were discharged ASAP, without Covid testing, assuming care homes could cope.
The result has been thousands of unnecessary deaths.
And I have not touched on the years of underfunding of the NHS, of the Care sector, and of the people, particularly the nurses, that work in them.
And the scramble for ventilators, PPE, tests for Covid RNA and Covid antibodies, and a vaccine, shows that when it comes to the crunch globalisation does not work, and that Brexit will be a disaster. We need to cooperate with our European neighbours to sort out these issues.
I don't think history will look kindly on those currently in office.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mike T

Covid has barely started in Africa/India/Pakistan - the numbers will rise exponentially soon enough, unfortunately. Being clean - or not - is almost certainly irrelevant. It does not help them when it comes to TB, Malaria, HIV, pneumonia, diarrhoea ...
A lot of what the UK should have done has nothing to do with the wisdom of hindsight - other countries were showing the way, but "We" knew better.
It is my understanding that over 60 NHS and Social Care workers have died so far, hardly a trivial number, given that they are of working age with good access to health care. And this is only the beginning. Ebola, whilst much more fatal - roughly 50% - is much harder to catch. If, when caring for Ebola patients, you catch it, you made a mistake with your PPE, or were extremely unlucky. This does not apply to Covid 19 - it is much more infectious, and unlike Ebola, it is infectious before symptoms develop, and sometimes in the absence of any symptoms. So that chap who came off his motorbike and broke his leg could be carrying it, thus exposing NHS staff who are not necessarily fully PPE protected.

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Meanwhile I look down the list of nhs worker deaths and see many over 60, some 70 even 80.
I look forward to seeing a stat that puts them massively at greater risk.
At present there is scant evidence.
If the risk to working age is only a quarter , the numbers still aren’t huge.
The BAME link is certainly concerning.

The reality is Boris followed medical advice. The fact that doctors cannot agree and some of the medical predictions were ludicrous does not give all doctors license for hindsight they all now presume. Get your own house in order.

As for ppe , I know the guy fighting a daily battle to procure it ever since FEBRUARY
Read that again, February, The fact you don’t know it is going on,does not give you right to criticise. Those doing the job are seriously p!ssed off with ill informed criticism like yours.

And as for globalisation, that is where all our PPE comes from, including places we would not nor,ally want to trade with. Thank goodness we don’t rely on EU.

Europe let us down,France cancelled our biggest order despite we were their best customer, and despite being first in the queue!! it is a free for all . So take the EU rose tinted glasses off. EU is demonstrably useless. Ask the Italians.

I also hear all this cr@p about testing. The reality is unvalidated tests are worse than none at all. The best are only 80 percent.

These drugs and products you take for granted take a long time and money to validate. The reason people think you can catch it again, for the present could easily be a false positive first time round. Also where do you get a validated population? Since it can be assymptomatic, you cannot have confidence in the test set, you cannot have confidence in a test.

And if the test is only 70 percent, it is little use for control.
Belgium tests per capita same as Germany. How did it help them?

Everything is easy for those who don’t have to do it.
How I hate these armchair critics.

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Originally Posted by Oracle

Meanwhile I look down the list of nhs worker deaths and see many over 60, some 70 even 80.

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A case in the last week on TV news was an unfortunate young lady, very tragic, highlighted on the news as a pregnant burse at Luton. Mrs WP said there's something wrong. At her workplace the vulnerable and expecting were sent home mid March on full pay until further notice.
She wondered what the heck she was doing working as a nurse when pregnant.
Even my local One Stop (owned by Tesco) sent home two members of staff on full pay until further notice W/C 16th March.
Later on another bulletin on another channel, it covered the same sad case. It turns out the young lady had lost her father earlier and he was tested positive. The NHS nurse in question had been on maternity for some time, since before her hospital handled any cases and whilst they couldn't save Mum, they managed to save the unborn child.

The circumstances don't make it any better, but the way this was initially presented by the TV News was a misrepresentation and there's a lot of it about.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mike T

The Government has made some huge errors.
They assumed they could control the rate of infection, and flatten/steepen the curve at will.
They assumed only the old/frail/those with significant pre-existing conditions would die, and that the public would accept this, as long as it was not because of the NHS being "full".
They assumed the NHS limitations were beds and ventilators, not realising that apparently simple things like PPE could be crucial.
Not wanting the NHS to be full, they decided to make sure that those in care who did get admitted to hospital were discharged ASAP, without Covid testing, assuming care homes could cope.
The result has been thousands of unnecessary deaths.
And I have not touched on the years of underfunding of the NHS, of the Care sector, and of the people, particularly the nurses, that work in them.
And the scramble for ventilators, PPE, tests for Covid RNA and Covid antibodies, and a vaccine, shows that when it comes to the crunch globalisation does not work, and that Brexit will be a disaster. We need to cooperate with our European neighbours to sort out these issues.
I don't think history will look kindly on those currently in office.

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A question that's been asked by many. What should the Government have done? Ignored the advise of the CMO, CSO and their teams?

According to the press conferences I heard when they were resisting the closure of schools etc in Mid March, they felt they could push back the curve to buy time for the NHS to prepare. They also thought they could flatten the peak.
Neither means less deaths, they postpone them. Perhaps a few more can be saved if the NHS is better prepared.

Is it for the Govt in a hands-on way to manage PPE?

Is it for the Govt to intervene in the testing? They are having to do it as Public Health England seem resistant to using private sector capacity.

I sense institutional resistance is a factor.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Oracle

Meanwhile I look down the list of nhs worker deaths and see many over 60, some 70 even 80.
I look forward to seeing a stat that puts them massively at greater risk.
At present there is scant evidence.
If the risk to working age is only a quarter , the numbers still aren’t huge.
The BAME link is certainly concerning.

The reality is Boris followed medical advice. The fact that doctors cannot agree and some of the medical predictions were ludicrous does not give all doctors license for hindsight they all now presume. Get your own house in order.

As for ppe , I know the guy fighting a daily battle to procure it ever since FEBRUARY
Read that again, February, The fact you don’t know it is going on,does not give you right to criticise. Those doing the job are seriously p!ssed off with ill informed criticism like yours.

And as for globalisation, that is where all our PPE comes from, including places we would not nor,ally want to trade with. Thank goodness we don’t rely on EU.

Europe let us down,France cancelled our biggest order despite we were their best customer, and despite being first in the queue!! it is a free for all . So take the EU rose tinted glasses off. EU is demonstrably useless. Ask the Italians.

I also hear all this cr@p about testing. The reality is unvalidated tests are worse than none at all. The best are only 80 percent.

These drugs and products you take for granted take a long time and money to validate. The reason people think you can catch it again, for the present could easily be a false positive first time round. Also where do you get a validated population? Since it can be assymptomatic, you cannot have confidence in the test set, you cannot have confidence in a test.

And if the test is only 70 percent, it is little use for control.
Belgium tests per capita same as Germany. How did it help them?

Everything is easy for those who don’t have to do it.
How I hate these armchair critics.

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We should have had PPE in storage, and should be making our own. Many small companies are trying to help, but are meeting a brick wall. Events have shown that relying on Globalisation is a mistake.
The standard answers that are given at the daily meetings are based on 1/ This is unprecedented and 2/ We are trying really hard. Both are true - that does not mean errors were not made. As to following scientific advice - there is usually a spectrum of possible responses, and the initial responses were at times pathetic - please don't go to the pub/cafes/restaurants - WTF!
I could go on, but I can see we will never agree.