Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

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When you are talking about lower rates and higher rates, we haven't even come anywhere near the higher rates at which false positives become less significant than false negatives.

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Again you seem to be talking about numbers, not actual significance. Deaths are more significant than having to stay at home for two weeks.

I agree with you that false positives with mass screening can result in more false positives than false negatives. I'm talking about the significance of these numbers. Personally I'd rather have 100 people stay at home for two weeks than 1 person die - does that seem reasonable?

And I think we all agree: we're against bad testing. Or rather we're against bad interpretation of tests (most medical tests are not 100%)

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

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The results of the testing have driven UK Government policy and world policy for 6 months.

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The majority of testing previously has been on people with covid symptoms. In this sub-population the proportion of actual positives will be many-fold higher than in the general population.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

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And the experts at SAGE and our Government act as if there is nothing to see here.

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They are professional epidemiologists, used to interpreting results based on tests that are not 100% specific or sensitive.

Sorry to be harsh WP, but I wouldn't replace them with you just yet. ;)

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

Graham there’s a huge whopping hole in that argument - they are the excess deaths taking into account all of the lockdowns and restrictions imposed since the end of March. You know March when the excess deaths hadn’t even taken off on the chart. You do realise that the figures would now be astronomical without all of the actions taken don’t you? And that our NHS would be trashed?

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Stolly, I am not opposed, in general, to the action the government has taken and I fully appreciate that thousands of lives will have been saved - possibly including my almost-98 year old mother.

However as someone who used to be paid to present data and arguments to serve my masters I like to think I can still look at eg histograms and ponder, rather than unthinkingly accept and believe what I am meant to.

And btw my son, daughter in law, grand-daughter all work in Leeds NHS hospitals,including on Covid wards, and tell me more than the government ever will. :)

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

Graham there’s a huge whopping hole in that argument - they are the excess deaths taking into account all of the lockdowns and restrictions imposed since the end of March. You know March when the excess deaths hadn’t even taken off on the chart. You do realise that the figures would now be astronomical without all of the actions taken don’t you? And that our NHS would be trashed?

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How do you know the figures would be astronomical?

Back in March, the infections were dropping prior to lockdown, perhaps as much as 2 weeks before lockdown.

Now in November, cases/infections/positives (whatever you want to call them) have been flat or dropping for 2 weeks.
ie pre lockdown and probably pre Tier system.

I don't know with any certainty. There is no certainty. That is the galling issue for me, this assertion that they are following the science as if there's only one view, one way, that it's clear, beyond debate.

They don't even know after 9 months (I suspect they do really know but are frightened to admit as it would unravel their policy decisions) whether a previously infect person has immunity and if a previously infected person can transmit.

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Stolly, I am not opposed, in general, to the action the government has taken and I fully appreciate that thousands of lives will have been saved - possibly including my almost-98 year old mother.

However as someone who used to be paid to present data and arguments to serve my masters I like to think I can still look at eg histograms and ponder, rather than unthinkingly accept and believe what I am meant to.

And btw my son, daughter in law, grand-daughter all work in Leeds NHS hospitals,including on Covid wards, and tell me more than the government ever will. :)

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Graham - I wonder if your 98 year old mother at her time of life, would prefer a few months longer of family contact, or 12 months more of a sterile life with little or no personal contact and no hugs from her family.
My neighbours 100 year old Mum has said she would chose the first option.

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Stolly, I am not opposed, in general, to the action the government has taken and I fully appreciate that thousands of lives will have been saved - possibly including my almost-98 year old mother.

However as someone who used to be paid to present data and arguments to serve my masters I like to think I can still look at eg histograms and ponder, rather than unthinkingly accept and believe what I am meant to.

And btw my son, daughter in law, grand-daughter all work in Leeds NHS hospitals,including on Covid wards, and tell me more than the government ever will. :)

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Great pondering Graham. It’s just that from these small sensible and nuanced points, like yours, others dive in and use them to make big points that are rather more bollocksed (new word invented ;) )

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

And btw my son, daughter in law, grand-daughter all work in Leeds NHS hospitals,including on Covid wards, and tell me more than the government ever will. :)

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A summary of what they are telling you would be of interest.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

Graham - I wonder if your 98 year old mother at her time of life, would prefer a few months longer of family contact, or 12 months more of a sterile life with little or no personal contact and no hugs from her family.
My neighbours 100 year old Mum has said she would chose the first option.

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WP

Dunno.

I live one mile from her apartment and so I visit or speak with her every day (and my two children and their four grandchildren all live within five miles) - but I'll ask her when she reaches 100. :)

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Originally Posted by noel

Deaths are more significant than having to stay at home for two weeks.

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Are they? Well it's only been the case this year since March.

In previous years when we had 500+ pw Autumn fatalities because of flu, we never considered closing down the country.

Are you looking forward to this as an annual event?

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

...sensible and nuanced...

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Mmmh. I really must get on with buying your Christmas present.:)

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

WP

Dunno.

I live one mile from her apartment and so I visit or speak with her every day (and my two children and their four grandchildren all live within five miles)- but I'll ask her when she reaches 100. :)

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Sorry Graham - I suppose I'm comparing apples with oranges. She sounds like she's doing well. My neighbours Mum had to go in a home a few years ago due to a series of falls.
Be interested to hear what she thinks though all the same.