Ah yes. History. Newnham College.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
I don't believe that I knew that.
"Three years of unparalleled pampering and privilege" (Eleanor Bron - another Newnham socialist)
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Ah yes. History. Newnham College.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
I don't believe that I knew that.
"Three years of unparalleled pampering and privilege" (Eleanor Bron - another Newnham socialist)
Apart from which we can claim Brian May, so no contest!Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
This was also off the back of a Labour manifesto that said no to EEA and no to Customs Union.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
What astounds me is the number of MPs that seem to know little about the consequences of being in a Customs Union.
This is from an order from a customer in Turkey.
T DAMLA DENİZCİLİK A.Ş.
ORDER CONFIRMATION
Please never use Ditaş Deniz İşletmeciliği as a messrs or receiver company
Please fill & stamp the attached doc (Asbestos Free Declaration) and send with order acknowledgement.
Please add the sentence end of the invoice as follows;
“I, the undersigned, declare that the goods listed in this invoice .......... (date and number) originate in ........... and produced by......... (name of the firm) in .............. (name of country).
I undertake to make available to the related public authorities any further supporting documents they require.
(Location, date, Name, title and signature)”
And please send the original invoice (signed and stamped and added above sentence) to the office address below.
1 original invoice ( signed and stamped and added above sentences ), original ATR1 and original Certificate of Origin to be sent to the office address.
CE or ATR1 and Certificate of Origin docs and 1 original invoice ( signed and stamped ) shall be given to the carrier with the documents. ( So, original invoice will be submitted to the company who done the our custom formalities by the carrier )
The total order value in this case was £300.
The level of paperwork required is astounding. That £300 order required more paperwork than any order I have shipped since I started this business 6 years ago and I ship around the world.
Wet stamped invoices?
The ATR1 for and the EUR1 forms are movement certificates required to demonstrate the goods are entitled to freely move around as either EU origin, or fully EU tax and duty compliant.
We've heard about the hokey kokey of goods over the NI border, and the bits of a mini that cross a border umpteen times before they end up in a finished vehicle.
A Customs Union without being in the EEA would be admin heavy. It makes no sense and I have yet to hear an argument for it, where the person knows what they are supporting.
I even heard one Labour MP Rupa Huq last week justify her support for a Customs Union on the basis her daughter wanted to go and study in Switzerland.
That's about as bonkers as it gets.
The way to cut down border bureaucracy and paperwork is mutual recognition, which is used widely now in modern FTAs.
There has been only one red herring put forward as a reason why we can't have this, and that we must protect the Belfast Agreement at all costs and such a scheme would damage the Agreement.
It's a false argument.
It's false because if we leave on April 12th, we will have to deal with it, so if we were to leave at the end of 2020 having planned for it on both sides, it must be manageable.
But even if it is not false, if the agreement has been framed in such a way to stop a sovereign country following a perfectly reasonable path, then there is something flawed about that agreement.
For those of you who are trying to belittle the issue with the N.I border you should have a read of the Irish Times article below.
Most of these criminals are the remnants of Republican and Loyalist paraliminatary groups. After decades of "the troubles" N.I has a very healty criminal network, who are loving the opportunites Brexit offers. All you Brexitieers go on about MaxFac and "Trusted Traders" but how does that work in the febrile environment that exists in N.I? You have succeeded in setting N.I back 20 years, congratulations.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/irel...ster-1.3854431
So what you're saying Pat is that the bad guys never went away, they just found new ways of being bad?
How long does the rest of the UK have to tread on egg-shells politically to supposedly keep a lid on a minority of dickheads on either side?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Look at the voting in North Ireland. Since 1992 it has gone:
UUP - 271049 to 83280
DUP - 103039 to 292316
That's the Unionists.
SDLP - 184445 to 95419
SF - 78291 to 238915
and the Republicans.
If the people of Northern Ireland want to vote for the nutjobs that's up to them, but don't come complaining to me about it.
Afraid you have nailed it there. That province has such a long way to go, to get to normality and that point is getting further away instead of closer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
I suppose if you think women and children loosing their husbands and fathers is a price worth paying for "freedom", then the UK does not have to worry about treading on egg-shells.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Seriously Patrick? That's ridiculous. That article seems to be about villains being villains. Not sure how you can pin it on Brexit.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
If tensions are increasing in Northern Ireland I would place the blame firmly at the door of Leo Varadkar and the EU who decided to weaponize the border for political reasons.
And here we are confirming my above statementQuote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
How does it confirm it?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
In the first year following the referendum vote Enda Kenny arranged for committees of Irish and British civil servants to discuss ensuring the border would run smoothly post Brexit. In May 2017 the head of Ireland's Revenue commissioners said he was practically 100% certain there would be no need for additional border infrastructure. HMRC confirmed this and an internationally renowned customs expert Hans Maesson called the border issue a fictitious problem.
When Varadkar came to power in 2017 he disbanded Kenny's committees. He became Brussels' useful idiot. They saw a way that the UK could be kept trapped in a customs union and hence we got the backstop. If we were to be released then the UK would have to come up with more and more concessions to placate the EU. If that is not so then how would you explain the comments of Macron last November when he said Britain would only be allowed out of the backstop arrangement if they granted EU fisherman access to British waters? How is that at all relevant to avoiding a hard border?
Where are the details of all these findings? That would be manna from Heaven to the ERG, why have they not been trumpting them?
Can you post links to the specific reports detailing exactly how two customs unions can exist on one island. And I don't mean bland statments along the lines of "ensuring the border would run smoothly post Brexit", I am looking for specific details here.
Patrick we are now on post 1413 (including this one) and you ask for links to these findings!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Unbelievable.
Go back through the thread or google them.
Start by listening to HMRC Chief Exec John Thompson who said he could manage a No Deal scenario without any new border infrastructure.
He's outlined it on a number of occasions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44230523
There are a host of people, and ERG have been trumpeting them. They have held press conferences outlining them.
I've provided these links before before but happy to do it again. By the way, what's your answer to my Macron question?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Here is the article relating to Hans Maeeson. He is the ex president of the Dutch customs association. He is also an advisor to Go EU Commerce
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46213434
Here is an article quoting Niall Cody, head of Ireland's Revenue Commissioners.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40042000
It's no wonder is it though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
Let's have a FTA with the EU.
We can't.
Why not?
Irish border.
What about it?
Goods moving back and forth will need to be managed at the border.
If they do, why can't they be?
Belfast Agreement.
Where does the BA say anything about this?
It just does.
I don't think it does, but we don't need any more border infrastructure anyway.
You must have a hard border, the WTO insist on it.
Actually they don't. They insist on consistent treatment on a border crossing of the other WTO members except where a WTO registered agreement is in place and of course we would have a WTO registered FTA.
But the single market requires checks on standards - they cannot just allow goods to flow freely across the border from the UK without checks - it would compromise the standards of the Single Market.
Can you point me to where they check goods now for standards at the border?
No, but they do check animals, meat etc.
Yes but they check these items at different levels. As there is a recognition agreement with some countries only a small % are checked randomly as in most cases certification from the country of origin is accepted. Further, a provision can be made where any cross border movements must be made at (say) 4 crossing points and the lorry must report to inspection post for document check and if necessary a physical check away from the border, as happens in places like Sweden/Norway.
So we can have an FTA then :D
Actually no we can't.
Why not?
The Irish Border.
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
Yes you have posted them before and I have looked at them then and again now, but I don't see any details in any of those links. First I head of that comment by Macron. But I was not aware that he was a EU spokeman, with the sole authority to make specific demands on behalf of the EU, plus it is a load of crap and does not help the situation.
You have to be aware, that the Irish Authorities have to be vague/deny they have any plans in place, because if they start publishing specifics as to how it might work; it runs the risk of becoming a self fulfilling prophecy as brexiters will start saying they can live with those plans.
Just build a wall, the good fellow said.
Then let us hear a wholesale, unequivocal condemnation from you OF THE EU , that is, who are determined to upset the fine balance. They only have two approaches. Their present determination to have a border in the irish Sea, deliberately upsetting Unionists, and if we No deal it is THE EU that have said they will demand Varadkar builds a border, deliberately upsetting Rebublicansin the name of a largely symbolic red line they have on the single market. Eu simply don't care how much trouble they cause: they are deliberately alienating one or other.
Meanwhile the brexiteers say do the best we can with technology. No border is perfect, but that will get close. Eu refuse to consider it, because it does not suit their domination plan. So why do you always echo EU nonsense PR instead of study it? The only reason they want a backstop is to hamstring britain. The EU like Corbyn always was dishonest about ireland, sadly too many remainers fell for their rhetoric.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Then do what I (saddo) do and watch select committee hearings. You can still find them online from a few years ago.
If you did, you would see more detail and typically from people with more knowledge than some of the "pundits" we have inflicted on us.
Where's Stolly gone? Is he hiding in his bunker? Anyway I've had some entertaining moments on the forum over the years. Things that made me chuckle for seconds, some for minutes and a few for days. In fact even today. Mr B and his car radio episode(sorry Mr B); the gold is king diversity is dead banter with The Heathens; Tindersticks and his twin at the Auld Lang Syne race a few years ago was hilarious and near the top of my great forum moments; the vitamin C thread; LongDog's shoplifting for whisky at Tesco's; But the greatest was Steve T's banter with Bob. Short, sharp and sweet. Put a smile on your face for years humour.
Oh and then there was Stolly and his tantrums!:)
One really has to question the accouracy of these polls. Look at this one from April 4th.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...l%20bad-01.png
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...no-deal-brexit
The accuracy of which? You are making the same mistake our politicians are if you consider the polls related:Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Which is to consider the philosophically / logically bankrupt evaluation of an option in an absolute sense ( so the above poll is totally meaningless) regardless of whether there are other alternatives. That is clearly not the same as whether it is the best choice of limited options. Reductio ad absurdum, if it is the only option there is it can get 1 percent approval in absolute terms, but 99 percent as the way we should go. Like going to war in 39. 1% wish to do it so would label it a bad outcome. 99% agree with the necessity. Sad we have to restrain europe again from its own stupidity 70 years later. They never learn.
So it is not surprising that when confronted with other choices, "no deal" which may not be preferred in an ideal world, in relative terms wins hands down. Except with politicians who are stupid enough to vote to not no deal. Clearly they have limited IQ or they are trying to force remain.
And I can confirm ERG would rather not no deal. But when confronted with an EU that refuses to negotiate on any matter of substance, intent on humiliation not dealing, and the reality of the lack of other alternatives, the backstop (and other insidious terms in barniers deal) remain , customs union (a worse form of remain) , or extending the purgatory for no other reason than MPs are too chicken to do anything else. No deal wins, as the other poll says.
The two are not incompatible.
All of us would rather EU negotiated in good faith. But the fact that they won't and they never have done so, is why we must leave. So no deal it is. Barnier decided no deal with his ridiculous negotiation stance.
You may be right, but will it be no deal or no Brexit?Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Those are, indeed the only realistic options. Ooooh, decisions, decisions! OH, there is a 3rd way....prevarication!
Why would you want to remain a member of a club that treats partners like that? Coming to which they way EU treats its own members is despicable.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
I hope that sooner or later EU will push even the most ardent remainers too hard, and the terms will be unnacceptable even for them. But with these muppets of MPs saying "no to no deal" which by definition implies they will accept anything, I think remaining on much worse terms is likely. Like just being in customs union.
I would prefer they withdrew A50 and vetoed everything. But that takes guts our politicians do not have. Maggie would have shown them...
There is a 3rd option; no deal yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
Barnier says there will be no negotiations if we leave without a deal unless we pay the £39B and sort out the NI Border.
But we have a new commission and new Parliament. I think Junker, Verhofstadt and Tusk all go (if you know different please correct me)
and a new commission will not have to lose face by changing tack.
Regardless, I'd leave, show how we can handle the NI border without any new infrastructure and sit on the £39b until they come back to the table, which I doubt would go beyond the end of Summer.
EU are now proposing a year extension which as terms demand that neither the withdrawal agreement nor the future arrangement can be negotiated, the latter in clear violation of article 50
So what is the purpose of dragging it out, since they demand we agree that nothing can change? You could not make it up. Even the most ardent remainer must see the EU are deliberately making it fail, as they have always done.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Whether you want to be a member or not (and I acknowledge most people when asked last time said they don't want to be), there is a majority in the country and in parliament that don't want no deal. So of the remaining options:Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Barnier-May deal: no majority
No deal: no majority
No Brexit: I doubt it, but it's still a possibility.
My money's still on a last-minute fudge.
Maybe we'll become a nation in a permanent state of limbo - too complicated to resolve and trapped between dead-end non-options. There's a cheery thought for you :)
That was sarcasm WP ;)
Not convinced. How can it be fudged? Barnier dug his heels in. He Refuses to negotiate either WA or future arrangement. So short of capitulation they will run out of road, since nothing can happen to resolve it.
EU businesses need certainty and Barnier gives them cowsh!t instead. He Won't even talk about it. His arrogance and hubris will sink the union.
I think the consequence of populist EU elections on the perception of financial risk in EU will take over the narrative. With bond rate hikes that will start an unstoppable chain of events leading to banking collapses, bail ins, the exit of Italy from the euro and ultimately break up of the union. Trouble is British banks lend disproportionately to other banks, not businesses and so are over exposed. It will not be pretty. The ECB has largely run out of fire power to act in any legal way. If the EU relaxes fiscal discipline the ending will be the same, as it was in the last failed union, Elsewhere in the EU both open borders and judicial issues are already shaking the union. Whilst such as Romania are in a desparate straights because of brain drains, forced by the faulty euro structure.
Germany seemingly doesn't care for as long as their fourth reich can extort money from the rest. Their taxpayers will start to care when their creditors collapse, which is the problem when you lend others increading heaps of money to buy your stuff, leaving them over enddebted. Mr German taxpayer is staring a 2 trillion loss in the face which is half of their median wealth, But nobody told them yet.
It won't end well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
An observation: Barnier is an agent. He was appointed to do a job by his masters and presumably is achieving what they want. Of course it suits them for him to be demonized by the UK but he (presumably) isn't a loose cannon or Merkel et al would have reigned him in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Barnier is doing a very good job
That is how he presents himself, but he is both architect and agent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
He juncker, selmayr, weyand and such as verhofstadt will have convinced the 27 " trust us, they will be forced to capitulate". Barnier has his own credibility irrevocably attached to this.
I think now they are doubting their own prediction. We were supposed to have caved in by now. The voices are growing in Germany as well as elsewhere that the approach taken is crazy, even Merkel is going off message, and such as Gabriel, the AFD indeed their own Europe commissioner are breaking ranks.
If May had not overruled Davis on kicking back the EU negotiating order we would be in a wholly different place now. For that May also deserves the condemnation of history.
Good job for whom?Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
A good negotiator aims for win win, knows just how far to push. Barnier aimed at win lose. And since there is no agreement just acrimony, Barnier has lost this big time. He has already alienated The EUs biggest potential partner in the process.
His hubris has paralysed Europe, at a time it is already headed into a recession, from which it will not survive intact. German manufacturing is down 10 percent in a few months. Worst figures for many years, Barnier is partly to thank for that. If Germany catches a cold, Italy will catch fatal pneumonia. Yet Even now barnier refuses to discuss trade. People don't seem to realise just how serious the economics are in Italy. It is not just a local problem because of the interconnectedness of banks. Italy can easily take down the entire EU. It's banks are already insolvent. A large proportion of the bank loans are non performing already. It is teetering on a knife edge.
Barnier is now proposing a year extension in which neither the withdrawal agreement nor trade arrangements can be discussed!. The kamikaze idiot is actively trying to frustrate a deal, not to enable one. Barnier is prolonging and increasing the damage. When they write the history in ten years time , he will rightly get much of the blame
The ideology trumping common sense of tusk, Juncker , selmayr, Barnier and others have sowed the seeds of division in Europe which will manifest in populist votes. The centre will be wiped out in upcoming elections, and I predict disastrous consequences for financial confidence in the markets if populist parties take over. 200 basis points on Italian bonds will herald the beginning of the end, and the ECB are not legally allowed to help.
Seriously. I am buying gold. They used to laught at the Old timers in Greece who kept money under their beds and didn't trust banks. But when capital controls started the older generation had the last laugh. It was their money kept entire families alive. If Italian banks crash, expect bail ins here: savings replaced by worthless bank shares.
There’s a long way to go. We’re barely on the pops and pics. The drinks haven’t even been ordered yet. In war the winners get to write the story
This isn't quite right. In recent polling, 3 in the last week or so, no deal has been the most popular option and I appreciate sometimes the answer can fluctuate depending on the way the question has been framed.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
Whilst not a majority, the question allowed "don't know" and of course in a 2nd referendum or a Commons Vote abstentions do not count. It is the votes of those that participate that count.
So taking the polling, there is a majority for No Deal among the public.
I obviously accept that polling is unreliable, but no one can say with confidence whether there is or isn't a majority for No Deal at the moment among the public. I think it's too close to call with all recent polls being within such a small band that a 2% swing could turn it the other way.
There was an interesting poll out yesterday. I've been waiting for this to happen and this was the first to show it.
A Comres poll showed support for Labour and Tory both on 32% and I think we might see them both drop below 30% before long.
A scenario for the 'experts' to discuss.
From day 1, May knew there was no point in negotiating with the EU, who were intent on frustrating the process. Hence preparations for no deal with the EU started in earnest over 2 years ago, and are significantly advanced. Unfortunately too many MPs failed to understand the situation, had their own agendas, and have attempted to prevent no deal. Whether their votes are legally binding is unclear.
Maybe no deal always was meant to be the outcome.
Well yes...but a good negotiator also knows that things are flexible or it isn't a "negotiation" and, whilst I don't know what your day-job is, you do seem to see matters in "black or white" as distinct from life's infinite shades of grey!Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Well the fewer people who know what one's real objective is in a negotiation the better because other people will only foul things up.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrump
First agree the deal and then persuade your own side why the deal is a good one.
The premise of your point is flawed and so what flows from it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrump
I don't think she realised how pointless it was. Hence she allowed preparation for no deal to be half-hearted.
I think MPs understood the situation better than her and the Remain weighted Parliament has played to that extremely well.
The Remain Tories kept her in position in December by supporting her in a no confidence vote, when clearly they didn't have confidence in her.
The longer the keep her in position, the more likely they wil thwart Brexit or make it so bias towards the EU that the UK would (they hope) opt to return, and by sufficiently aligned to facilitate it quickly.
MPs have their own agendas - that I agree with you on wholeheartedly.
But the agenda is quite different whether remain or leave,
The Leavers are often tagged as intransigent, wanting a pure leave, even wanting a no deal at times which is untrue. but the accusation sticks if it is repeated often enough.
But the leave MPs have given ground.
The Remainers not so. They have taken ground.
There are ample clips of Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry... giving it the "we're all leavers now", "a 2nd referendum would undermine democracy", "I support Brexit now, I voted for article 50".
It is clear to me that these people were never pro any sort of Brexit, they were just trying to drag Brexit far enough in their direction until they were comfortable in trying to revoke it.
I think had Davis been in charge of the process and negotiation, we would have left already. He would have planned for a FTA and worked it out with the EU, or left had they been unable to agree but with intent to carry on discussions after leaving.
He wouldn't have gone for a General Election. He would have stuck with the small but manageable majority and got his legislation through.
Davis???
If you want to be sure of reaching your destination then make sure you are in the driving seat.
If you just want to be a back seat comedian - join Equity.