Coronavirus

What Dave Mole has reminded us is that the emphasis on masks has changed over time. Comments were initially about the increased risks to the wearer which Dr Harries stated very clearly. This was lot to do with masks getting dirty when the emphasis was on preventing infection from dirty surfaces. Events have now moved on to reducing increased risks to non infected public from an asymptomatic carrier due to breath-bourne transmission. This tips the balance from non-wearing to wearing as formal advice.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

With regard to Harries comments about large gatherings, if it comes to outside gatherings, they are probably not a significant source of infection. The risk of transmission outside appears to be very small and when there has been large gatherings such as BLM marches and various raves etc there has been no noticeable spike.

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Thank you for this call to get fell races re-started.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...side-your-home

Point 8 Face coverings - not masks

Probably because if they asked for masks, it would be classed as PPE and the consequences then might open up a can of worms.

So instead they ask us to put a random piece of textile over our mouth and nose, with no defined properties or method at the point in the outbreak where we are trying to get the economy going.

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Originally Posted by Mossdog

According to the BBC website "Anyone who cannot wear a covering "because of any physical or mental illness or impairment, or disability", or who would experience "severe distress" from doing so, is exempt.

So presumably, if you are in an incandescent rage about the total crushing asininity of the mask-wearing fiasco, then you could arguably be exempt under the mental illness or severe distressed loopholes! Not sure how you'd prove that (some sort of certificate?) as its a tall challenge maintaining that level of peed-off-ness without years of practice.

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After I had stopped laughing...

The Daily Telegraph headline today refers to "masks" (in offices).

The first two words of the first sentence immediately underneath says "Face coverings...

Sometimes I do despair.

I wear a buff on public transport. I always knew the unused pile I have would be useful one day and then along comes a pandemic so now I can use a fresh, nicely ironed different one every day to colour coordinate with my outfit and accessories.

I am waiting for someone to approach me with "Oh I do like your buff. Please tell me where..."

Whoo hoo! :)

Public transport? With a garage full of exotic imported bicycles and a luxury car at your disposal?

Can I put my mask on my shorts..? ;)

So now finally it is being discussed.

114 new cases in the area of Blackburn with Darwen, population 148,000.

97 from the "South Asian Community".

Prof Harrison said it was a "rising tide event rather than an outbreak", meaning there were cases within specific areas in a significant community but not a single big outbreak.

"It can have the same effect because it can drive up the cases, but what we are seeing from looking at the postcode data of those cases is, in the last couple of weeks, is that what we are seeing is a single case being infected, then going back to a household and all that household becoming infected," he added.

"And when we look at the data, what we can see is clusters in a part of the town – but the clusters are household clusters.

"If numbers are not turning round and going down again by July 27, so two weeks, we are going to then have our next stage, we will go through the lockdown lifting measures and reverse them one by one until the numbers go down.

Daily Telegraph (I did cancel my subscription, but I have some time left)

The Prof is the Borough Director of Public Health

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Originally Posted by Derby Tup

Public transport? With a garage full of exotic imported bicycles and a luxury car at your disposal?

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A reasonable point DT so I will respond in full (groan:)).

The luxury car was in a different sort of garage. The kind that charges £487 to let one take it home again. And having cycled 34 miles the day before and planning 40 miles today I had to tell myself that I was not the youthful Graham Wright, who can ride 100 miles before a bacon sandwich, but instead should provide funds for ailing Northern Rail and so arrive at my garage displaying my customary gravitas and sprezzatura - rather than as a perspiring wreck.

And talking of railways: I was surprised yesterday how many seats were cordoned off as "Not In Use" by Northern Rail.

By way of contrast the first post-Covid19 steam hauled train* traveled from Crewe to Carlisle (and back) via the Settle - Carlisle today. In some classes silver service breakfast and dinner are served and you can be sure that Saphos, the operating company, will have made damn sure that no passengers will have been at risk and social distancing etc will have been scrupulously adhered to.

It is clear that franchises like Northern Rail are going to bailed out by the Government and in future will operate trains on a cost plus basis but nobody is going to bail out - in this case Saphos Trains - who would be allowed to go bust.

So Northern Rail don't need to try too hard to get passengers back - but the management of Saphos Trains most certainly do... or more pithily: where there is a will there is a way.

* 70000 Brittania. Immaculate as usual.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...side-your-home

Point 8 Face coverings - not masks

Probably because if they asked for masks, it would be classed as PPE and the consequences then might open up a can of worms.

So instead they ask us to put a random piece of textile over our mouth and nose, with no defined properties or method at the point in the outbreak where we are trying to get the economy going.

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Could this all be a sneaky ploy to get us to submit to wearing burkas (which I guess count as face coverings/masks/or some other euphemism)? Back door Sharia law!

From the BBC "Covid fears putting off Chinese students from UK"

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Originally Posted by anthonykay

Thank you for this call to get fell races re-started.

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I really cannot see any reason why not.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

I really cannot see any reason why not.

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In common with similar organisations one issue will be insurance cover, even assuming that relevant land owners and property owners are supportive of events going ahead, as well as others who may think they have a legitimate voice.

Heard a little about this yesterday. Guided to it by a tweet from Karol Sikora.

I read this and was appalled. It's from Oxford's CEBM & two very talented Professors
@carlheneghan & Prof Loke.
I just can't believe PHE could be so incompetent - it's scandalous.
Read for yourselves.
Judgement reserved until PHE comment- @PHE_uk?

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no...tical-anomaly/

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

Heard a little about this yesterday. Guided to it by a tweet from Karol Sikora.

I read this and was appalled. It's from Oxford's CEBM & two very talented Professors
@carlheneghan & Prof Loke.
I just can't believe PHE could be so incompetent - it's scandalous.
Read for yourselves.
Judgement reserved until PHE comment- @PHE_uk?

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no...tical-anomaly/

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This is astonishing. I’ve wondered for a while why the UK’s apparent daily death toll from the virus is so much higher than other countries given our ever diminishing new confirmed case numbers. It never made any sense and now we know why. So while countries like Spain are fiddling their numbers down, we are fiddling them up!

Typical to keep everyone suppressed.

Welcome to England twined with North Korea

I don’t think the government want people to be suppressed. They want them out spending money. That said they’ll kind of relish this as a reason to blame others and not themselves.

It just shows how government departments get flustered though. Early doors they weren’t counting deaths (clearly due to covid) if the final cause was say pneumonia brought on by covid. They swiftly changed that when it became public knowledge but are now potentially counting things skewed the other way 🙄

What is less clear though is just how many of those deaths there are and how much they’ve actually skewed the figures. Aren’t excess deaths (over the norm) still way up?

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

I don’t think the government want people to be suppressed. They want them out spending money. That said they’ll kind of relish this as a reason to blame others and not themselves.

It just shows how government departments get flustered though. Early doors they weren’t counting deaths (clearly due to covid) if the final cause was say pneumonia brought on by covid. They swiftly changed that when it became public knowledge but are now potentially counting things skewed the other way ��

What is less clear though is just how many of those deaths there are and how much they’ve actually skewed the figures. Aren’t excess deaths (over the norm) still way up?

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I understood for several weeks deaths have been below the 5 year average suggesting that Covid 19 has "brought forward" the deaths of the very ill.

Or if you prefer: a benefit of Covid 19 has been that weekly deaths are now running below normal!

Everything is context.

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

I understood for several weeks deaths have been below the 5 year average suggesting that Covid 19 has "brought forward" the deaths of the very ill.

Or if you prefer: a benefit of Covid 19 has been that weekly deaths are now running below normal!

Everything is context.

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Yeah in the round I think you’re right Graham. That said for some regions of the U.K. excess deaths are still up - the north west for example and the East Midlands by the looks of things. A really good article on it all here -> https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

Yeah in the round I think you’re right Graham. That said for some regions of the U.K. excess are still up - the north west for example and the East Midlands by the looks of things. A really good article on it all here -> https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

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Ever since The Economist printed the excellent Obituary of Bill Smith (The Economist!) I have been impressed with its trustworthiness - exceeded only by my respect for those who read it!

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Ever since The Economist printed the excellent Obituary of Bill Smith

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...and here it is!

The method of counting that PHE is using is stark, staring bonkers! As Carl Heneghan points out, one, no one will ever be deemed to have recovered from Covid-19, and, two, it will screw up the ability to detect a true second wave. I despair, I really do. And, of course, the elephant in the room is that most death certificates are filled out by junior doctors and often based on a best-guess clinical judgement. So, if the unfortunate patient has a serious condition like kidney failure or heart failure, if they test positive for covid and sadly then pass away, its likely they will be counted as a corona death. Its more likely a straw that broke the camels back scenario.

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

The method of counting that PHE is using is stark, staring bonkers! As Carl Heneghan points out, one, no one will ever be deemed to have recovered from Covid-19, and, two, it will screw up the ability to detect a true second wave. I despair, I really do. And, of course, the elephant in the room is that most death certificates are filled out by junior doctors and often based on a best-guess clinical judgement. So, if the unfortunate patient has a serious condition like kidney failure or heart failure, if they test positive for covid and sadly then pass away, its likely they will be counted as a corona death. Its more likely a straw that broke the camels back scenario.

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I was just reading an article from the Spectator and one of the comments at the bottom made me chuckle. It said:

“This just in from Public Health England - a man killed by a Great White Shark has died from Covid”

from the news today:

Matt Hancock has ordered an urgent review of how Public Health England compiles its daily count of Covid-19 deaths amid concerns they are exaggerated. A study by Oxford University pointed out the PHE’s figures record deaths of anyone who has previously tested positive for coronavirus. But experts point out that PHE’s daily figures under estimate the true picture. They point out figures from the Office of National Statistics, which record deaths that mention Covid-19 on deaths certificate is more than PHE’s count.

Either counting method is fraught because of the basic situation of death certification. The ONS stats show that 95% of the covid deaths are over 80 years age. Imagine an 85 year old diabetic patient with heart failure, kidney failure and COPD being admitted to hospital with breathing difficulties. This is a drastically common scenario every day, up and down the land. Ask any junior doctor! Any or all of those conditions will lead to breathing difficulty. Unfortunately the patient does not make it but routine testing includes the covid test which is positive. The junior doctor filling out the death certificate will put covid-19 on the death certificate maybe not a primary cause but certainly contributory. This time last year, the same clinical scenario would have no mention of covid. But today, the sad event is added to the hand-wringing tally of deaths intoned on the daily news. But its a nonsense. The death certification process is often a best guess. I know...I've been there. We used to get £25 for filling out a certificate. Junior doctors perk (or 'Ash Cash' as we bluntly called it!).

Is that because you used to spend it on pipe tobacco, cigars and cigarettes?;)

Only the finest cubans!

During the pandemic I have heard several interviews with researchers from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford. Whenever I hear that title, it sets me wondering what other kind of medicine there is: do they have a Centre for Superstition-Based Medicine? ["Old Chattox used to cure coronavirus with Eye of Newt. It always worked, but after she was hanged, no-one else knew the recipe."]

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Originally Posted by anthonykay

During the pandemic I have heard several interviews with researchers from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford. Whenever I hear that title, it sets me wondering what other kind of medicine there is: do they have a Centre for Superstition-Based Medicine? ["Old Chattox used to cure coronavirus with Eye of Newt. It always worked, but after she was hanged, no-one else knew the recipe."]

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Since my brother and sister in law have Cambridge Doctorates, publish widely and are members of a University faculty (and I have worked with other Professors) I appreciate that "academics" (as a general term) are notoriously bitchy, jealous and the epitome of "not thought of by me first so therefore wrong" but I cannot recall any other issue in my (long) life before Covid 19 where they have been given such a high profile and where there have been such a myriad of different, if not opposing, opinions.

I appreciate this is partly because academics are rarely allowed out into the sunshine to have their moment when people listen to and care what they have to say, and I appreciate that glory and future honours and future funding & etc hang on their performance: but nevertheless it has all been very strange.

Obviously mathematicians, who are of purer stock, are above all the aforementioned petty rivalry.:)

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

Either counting method is fraught because of the basic situation of death certification. The ONS stats show that 95% of the covid deaths are over 80 years age. Imagine an 85 year old diabetic patient with heart failure, kidney failure and COPD being admitted to hospital with breathing difficulties. This is a drastically common scenario every day, up and down the land. Ask any junior doctor! Any or all of those conditions will lead to breathing difficulty. Unfortunately the patient does not make it but routine testing includes the covid test which is positive. The junior doctor filling out the death certificate will put covid-19 on the death certificate maybe not a primary cause but certainly contributory. This time last year, the same clinical scenario would have no mention of covid. But today, the sad event is added to the hand-wringing tally of deaths intoned on the daily news. But its a nonsense. The death certification process is often a best guess. I know...I've been there. We used to get £25 for filling out a certificate. Junior doctors perk (or 'Ash Cash' as we bluntly called it!).

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But .... the average 80 year old - with the average number of chronic conditions seen at 80 - has 9 years to live if a man, 10 if a woman. So the idea that Covid mainly kills those who are in the last few months of life needs careful appraisal. One estimate I saw was that to achieve herd immunity through infection rather than vaccination would mean a reduction in annual life expectancy of about 2 years - that is huge.

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Originally Posted by Mike T

But .... the average 80 year old - with the average number of chronic conditions seen at 80 - has 9 years to live if a man, 10 if a woman. So the idea that Covid mainly kills those who are in the last few months of life needs careful appraisal. One estimate I saw was that to achieve herd immunity through infection rather than vaccination would mean a reduction in annual life expectancy of about 2 years - that is huge.

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This stat seems odd to me.

It's hard to find anything specific to an 80 year old, but what there is out there suggests an average 80 year old male will last 9-10 years and an average 90 year old male will last 4-5 years.

So for those with a Chronic condition to last just as long as those without sets off alarm bells.

Having said that, isn't arthritis a chronic condition? So perhaps every 80 year old is classed as having a chronic condition.

A reduction in life expectancy of 2 years would only take us back to 2005 figures - in 15 years life expectancy has increased by over 2 years.
Better health or better medicines or better old age care? In the end covid is only doing what something else would do anyway - we just don't want it to be us!

Everybody keeps talking about covid-19 as being an ‘instead of’ thing to die of when in fact it’s an ‘another’ thing to die of 🧐

That’s why there are excess deaths figures

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

This stat seems odd to me.

It's hard to find anything specific to an 80 year old, but what there is out there suggests an average 80 year old male will last 9-10 years and an average 90 year old male will last 4-5 years.

So for those with a Chronic condition to last just as long as those without sets off alarm bells.

Having said that, isn't arthritis a chronic condition? So perhaps every 80 year old is classed as having a chronic condition.

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The figures I give are for an average 80 year old - with, as stated, the average number of morbidities that an 80 year old has - these figures are from an actuary who works for the life insurance industry, so I am trusting that he knows what he is talking about. So I am not talking about the 80 year old in perfect health, just the average.

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Originally Posted by Mike T

The figures I give are for an average 80 year old - with, as stated, the average number of morbidities that an 80 year old has - these figures are from an actuary who works for the life insurance industry, so I am trusting that he knows what he is talking about. So I am not talking about the 80 year old in perfect health, just the average.

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If you do some sums on No of 80 year olds, deaths since CV started, I suspect you'll find a very small % of the 80+ year olds have succumbed during this period, whether or not CV or something else has got to them.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

If you do some sums on No of 80 year olds, deaths since CV started, I suspect you'll find a very small % of the 80+ year olds have succumbed during this period, whether or not CV or something else has got to them.

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I believe c 300,000 or so over 75’s die each year in the U.K. If say 40,000 over 75’s have died due to covid then your small percentage is 13%

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

I believe c 300,000 or so over 75’s die each year in the U.K. If say 40,000 over 75’s have died due to covid then your small percentage is 13%

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13% increase, not 13% of over 75s

Apparently we all have a Covid age!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3plSbCbkSA&t=2413s
Interesting programme.
Lots of good stuff on Youtube.

“Quite a lot changed that led to R [reproduction rate] going below one well before, or to some extent before, March 23,”

Chris Whitty at the Health Select Committee yesterday.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

“Quite a lot changed that led to R [reproduction rate] going below one well before, or to some extent before, March 23,”

Chris Whitty at the Health Select Committee yesterday.

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Luckily many started self lockdown well before the Government made it law.