New guidance and documentation from the FRA:
https://fellrunner.org.uk/covid.php?...aNRQwle7qHrGAY
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New guidance and documentation from the FRA:
https://fellrunner.org.uk/covid.php?...aNRQwle7qHrGAY
1% of those infected die which shows what a serious infection this is compared to the common cold. What the chart does not say is who makes up that 1%. Stats from first wave shows that in the UK 95% of deaths were in the over 80's and of the rest, most had other health issues. So risk of death for a healthy 45 yr old is minimal and certainly not 1%. What we dont know yet is the incidence of "long covid" and what the impact of that will be.
I wonder if the NHS are testing for anything else other than COVID when a patient with a respiratory condition is admitted. It isn't the only lurgy around.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
The other thing is that given that about half of people who get the virus have no symptoms, that means that it’s really only people with symptoms that get tested. So deaths will likely come in a c 2% of all positive tests. That sort of correlates given that there were 49 reported deaths yesterday with positive tests 4 weeks ago coming in at just over 2,000 each day.
So, somewhat pessimistically, of the 12,872 positive results yesterday it’s likely that 250 or so will die :(
But aren’t they now only counting deaths within 30 days - that surely means that deaths from COVID post 30 days are very likely to compensate any potential for error on the within 30 day deaths???Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Firstly, I'm sure you know the 12.872 results are correcting a reporting error and aren't yesterday. They go back in sonme cases to early September - and I know that doesn't change your calculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
On the admissions, September is the start of the seasonal growth in respiratory conditions which usually peaks out in December.
It can be around 1,000 hospital admissions a day.
September 2015 saw 21,000 admissions for respiratory conditions.
What we are seeing isn't alarming in terms of numbers. BUt then you stick on the "with Covid" tag.
Yeah but a dead patient will have to had tested positive for covid to be counted as dying from it. So using your example, a chap goes to hospital and has pneumonia but not covid. He dies and cause of death is pneumonia. Not covidQuote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
You’re arguing against such a mute point anyway. The whole of the world recognises how deadly covid can be but, you, you’re not so sure....
To be fair there are many who support WP's view - so it's not to be so readily discounted. Personally, I just follow the rules and I don't have a strong view either way. What does make me stop and think is whether we are getting this all out of proportion given some other facts banded about - e.g "5 people die every hour in the UK from sepsis" https://sepsistrust.org/about/about-sepsis/ Apparently, sepsis kills 52,000 people a year in the UK (that’s 142 a day - every day) - it certainly helps with perspective. And " One in five deaths around the world is caused by sepsis, also known as blood poisoning, shows the most comprehensive analysis of the condition." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51138859Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
a chap goes to hospital with pneumonia and tests positive for Covid, he dies, and cause of death is.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
I agree with the perspective point. My dad actually died from sepsis and my mum from heart disease. Cancer is a biggee too and they all knock spots off of covid. But covid is on top of those and not necessarily instead of. And, like the health system doing it’s best to stop people dying from sepsis etc, I t’s also doing its best to stop people dying from covid. Remember potentially a vaccine (or several vaccines) are likely in the next 3 to 6 months and, if successful, how terrible will we as a country look if we plough on from this point laxadasically and see a whopping amount of extra deaths whilst other countries take care and don’t?
That was my point, it’s swings and roundabouts and fundamentally the statistics reflect both sides of the coinQuote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Stating the bleeding obvious you obviously can’t catch cancer, sepsis and heart disease from other people whilst that’s exactly how you catch covid :rolleyes:
No, it's just swings, swinging all the data analysis in one direction with an emphasis towards reporting COVID.
You're right of course Stolly. You can't catch sepsis etc. like you can catch covid. However, on 'the 'upside' (there isn't one really) these other diseases don't have the significant additional collateral effects of Covid-19 related policies. Interesting article in Unherd this morning ...Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
"Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice".
Stating the bleedin' obvious, we're faced with a very complex problem and discounting alternative perspectives because they're not the received authoritative opinion isn't helpful.
https://unherd.com/2020/10/covid-exp...nd=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
I take your point but how do you allow those who want to be 'relaxed' about covid gallivant about as normal without increasing the risk of all the others who don't want them too? My sister visited a couple of weeks ago and she is very much of that mindset too and the first thing she wanted to do was to hug everyone - she thought she was showing how carefree and unworried she was about it (she is 70 by the way) was a good thing and I don't think it even occurred to her that others might feel different
I'm not advocating gallivanting about as normal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
You can probably go back months to when we had similar points made on here, around May/June.
The statistic the boffins at SAGE seem most concerned about is the number of contacts.
If lockdown was lifted in all areas, and guidance became voluntary tomorrow, the number of contacts would still be far below what they were back in February.
That's because workplaces now have covid measures in place, we have more home-working, some of the public will still isolate, and almost all of the public will self-assess their sitation and reduce in some way their potential risk by reducing their contacts.
Just as a basic example, I will not be in a queue of 8-10 in the local post office as I might have been back in February 3-4 times a week.
So what do you want to see happen now? With one hand I appreciate that the pub closing early at 10pm thing was bonkers but, with the other, I'm not desperately keen to go to the pub nowadays either. I do go to the gym a couple of times each week though where the covid set up (Skipton Crossfit) is superb - it would be completely disproportionate to impose restrictions on them again but you get the feeling that that might end up happening if things continue to get worse. I think this new traffic light system might at least be easier to follow and get rid of some of the confusion but it could be a harsh system, which still might end up penalising the innocent majority because of the stupidity the careless minority. I still think the major problem is still mixing households indoors at home and maybe that is the major big button to keep turning on and off to try and control things?Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
In a number of places the recent spike seems to have been caused by the return of students. That certainly appears to be true in the case of Leeds.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
The map below charts weekly cases by local ward. It is generally 4 or 5 days behind so at the moment it is showing the week to 30th September.
https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web...2c5f6912ed7076
The largest number of cases in Leeds are heavily clustered around the area just to the north of the city centre, where the universities are and where many students live.
Hyde Park Corner and Woodhouse Cliff - 167
Woodhouse and Little London - 98
University and Little London - 92
Leeds City Centre - 75
Hyde Park - 63
By comparison the ward where I live, four miles east of the city centre has just 5 recorded cases in that week.
There has been a large surge in Leeds recorded cases since 30th September so the individual ward figures will probably now look much worse.
In one sense, it's not the end of the world if students, who are mainly young get infected as the vast majority will suffer little ill effect. The problem of course is if it spreads to the rest of the population.
Thanks for the link. Hardly a surprise that it's all the fault of those students around Hyde Park Corner (of fond memory!)Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Everything is relative and my mother told me there has been a "surge" in Ilkley, which has even more care homes than charity shops.
And so there has - to 15 cases.
Thats a great link MR, thanks. Showing just 7 cases as at the end of September in my neck of the woods :)
0-2 in upper Teesdale yet we're included the NE restrictions :mad:Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
The site is useful if you're thinking about areas you might want to avoid. It generally updates at around 4pm each day so now if you look it is taking the seven days to 1st October.
As expected the picture in central Leeds is looking even uglier. Hyde Park Corner and Woodhouse Cliff is now 281.
I wonder if we would be governed better if the House of Commons had fewer lawyers and more accountants and engineers?
(In the interest of full disclosure perhaps I should add that I started my career in engineering but my later move into human resources means that I am totally without bias :)).
It's because of all those salmon swimming up to their spawning grounds in the upper part of the river, bringing the virus up from Middlesbrough. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
Quite possibly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
Of equal concern still is the administration at PHE. The IT tech problem, which led to the missed 16,000 cases is apparently because the data was being uploaded to an Excel spreadsheet and the figures exceeded its capacity. It is quite alarming that they are not using something a little more sophisticated than a spreadsheet, like a proper database. I have visions of the next delay in figure reporting being caused by the spreadsheet getting corrupted and somebody forgetting to take a back up. You heard it here first!
Governments have always been crap at IT "solutions". Can't think of a single one that was on time or budget....Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Regarding the data, if the missing data is taken into account, the doubling rate is getting higher, faster, so those relatively small numbers on that lovely interactive map have the potential to get quite large, quite quickly.....
Whale that's not the offishal line but it cod sardinely be true! :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
Yikes. That's a big change in the picture from a week ago. Which I remember was worse than the week before.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Sounds like a load of Pollocks to me...Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
If Oscar Wilde were alive today I feel sure he would be posting on the Forum :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
YupQuote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
"For us there is only one season, the season of sorrow".
When the Forum has culture, why would we miss fell races?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
Well, as Thomas Carlyle would have it: culture is the process by which a person becomes all that they were created capable of being. So it should help with PBs on races, too :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
Well I never...who would have thought?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
Unless he was talking about yoghurt....Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
It reeely is not my plaice to carp on but you seem to be a dab hand at this Mossdog!Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
Indeed, after all did he not say that "Shellfishness is not living your life as you fish to live it. Shellfishness is wanting others to live their lives as you fish them to"!Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
Enough already!
Indeed he did - although, alas, so often mistranscribed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
Just watched the video. One new and interesting point they made was an idea to facilitate shielding amongst older workers who are pre-retirement at about 25 minutes in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
If you have a 60 year old bus driver, they should have the option not to work. One way to facilitate this and support them would be (say) a 3 - 6 month sabatical where they can draw down on their pension now and then retire 3-6 months later.
They didn't quite set it out like that, but it seemed a good idea and something that I haven't come across before.
Stolly "I still think the major problem is still mixing households indoors at home"
Muddy "In a number of places the recent spike seems to have been caused by the return of students."
Muddy "Of equal concern still is the administration at PHE. The IT tech problem, which led to the missed 16,000 cases is apparently because the data was being uploaded to an Excel spreadsheet"
The first two comments are predicated on the testing system and data flowing from it being robust. The final comment shows that you cannot trust the information we are being given.
https://assets.publishing.service.go..._negatives.pdf
The reliability of the test results have been long debated and this link seems to be a paper put together by Porton Down.
"Unless we understand the operational false positive rate of the UK’s RT-PCR testing system we risk overestimating the COVID-19 incidence, the demand on track and trace, and the extent of asymptomatic infection."
That's 3rd June and we still don't have anything satisfactory in the public domain that I have seen to suggest it has been dealt with. In fact yesterday morning there was a piece on the BBC where they seemed to be coming late to the issue of false positives.
So I'm uncomfortable with pointing the finger at a few postcodes of mainly Asian ethnicity here in Blackburn that caused our spike back in July and are still in stricter lockdown measures 12 weeks on.
Rather than mixing in households or other indoor settings, it could be that these were people previously infected perhaps back in March/April but not picked up until June/July.
They could have been following guidance, they might not have been infectious at all, or for weeks, and hence the cases did not lead to hospital admissions.
Then the SWAT team of testers comes in, and finds even more of these that were previously exposed to the virus, but they get counted as "cases".
It seems quite possible that the spikes are just the product of a testing system that isn't as reliable as it is being presented to us.
That is even without considering any operational failings that may occur at the many outdoor testing centres, and through postal test kits.