Coronavirus

[Fellbeast]

a chap goes to hospital with pneumonia and tests positive for Covid, he dies, and cause of death is.....

That was my point, it’s swings and roundabouts and fundamentally the statistics reflect both sides of the coin

[Fellbeast]

Stating the bleeding obvious you obviously can’t catch cancer, sepsis and heart disease from other people whilst that’s exactly how you catch covid

[Witton Park]

No, it's just swings, swinging all the data analysis in one direction with an emphasis towards reporting COVID.

[Mossdog]

Stating the bleeding obvious you obviously can’t catch cancer, sepsis and heart disease from other people whilst that’s exactly how you catch covid

You're right of course Stolly. You can't catch sepsis etc. like you can catch covid. However, on 'the 'upside' (there isn't one really) these other diseases don't have the significant additional collateral effects of Covid-19 related policies. Interesting article in Unherd this morning ...

"Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice".

Stating the bleedin' obvious, we're faced with a very complex problem and discounting alternative perspectives because they're not the received authoritative opinion isn't helpful.

https://unherd.com/2020/10/covid-exp...nd=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

[Fellbeast]

I take your point but how do you allow those who want to be 'relaxed' about covid gallivant about as normal without increasing the risk of all the others who don't want them too? My sister visited a couple of weeks ago and she is very much of that mindset too and the first thing she wanted to do was to hug everyone - she thought she was showing how carefree and unworried she was about it (she is 70 by the way) was a good thing and I don't think it even occurred to her that others might feel different

[Witton Park]

I take your point but how do you allow those who want to be 'relaxed' about covid gallivant about as normal without increasing the risk of all the others who don't want them too? My sister visited a couple of weeks ago and she is very much of that mindset too and the first thing she wanted to do was to hug everyone - she thought she was showing how carefree and unworried she was about it (she is 70 by the way) was a good thing and I don't think it even occurred to her that others might feel different

I'm not advocating gallivanting about as normal.

You can probably go back months to when we had similar points made on here, around May/June.

The statistic the boffins at SAGE seem most concerned about is the number of contacts.

If lockdown was lifted in all areas, and guidance became voluntary tomorrow, the number of contacts would still be far below what they were back in February.

That's because workplaces now have covid measures in place, we have more home-working, some of the public will still isolate, and almost all of the public will self-assess their sitation and reduce in some way their potential risk by reducing their contacts.

Just as a basic example, I will not be in a queue of 8-10 in the local post office as I might have been back in February 3-4 times a week.

[Fellbeast]

I'm not advocating gallivanting about as normal.

You can probably go back months to when we had similar points made on here, around May/June.

The statistic the boffins at SAGE seem most concerned about is the number of contacts.

If lockdown was lifted in all areas, and guidance became voluntary tomorrow, the number of contacts would still be far below what they were back in February.

That's because workplaces now have covid measures in place, we have more home-working, some of the public will still isolate, and almost all of the public will self-assess their sitation and reduce in some way their potential risk by reducing their contacts.

Just as a basic example, I will not be in a queue of 8-10 in the local post office as I might have been back in February 3-4 times a week.

So what do you want to see happen now? With one hand I appreciate that the pub closing early at 10pm thing was bonkers but, with the other, I'm not desperately keen to go to the pub nowadays either. I do go to the gym a couple of times each week though where the covid set up (Skipton Crossfit) is superb - it would be completely disproportionate to impose restrictions on them again but you get the feeling that that might end up happening if things continue to get worse. I think this new traffic light system might at least be easier to follow and get rid of some of the confusion but it could be a harsh system, which still might end up penalising the innocent majority because of the stupidity the careless minority. I still think the major problem is still mixing households indoors at home and maybe that is the major big button to keep turning on and off to try and control things?

[Muddy Retriever]

I still think the major problem is still mixing households indoors at home and maybe that is the major big button to keep turning on and off to try and control things?

In a number of places the recent spike seems to have been caused by the return of students. That certainly appears to be true in the case of Leeds.

The map below charts weekly cases by local ward. It is generally 4 or 5 days behind so at the moment it is showing the week to 30th September.

https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web...2c5f6912ed7076

The largest number of cases in Leeds are heavily clustered around the area just to the north of the city centre, where the universities are and where many students live.

Hyde Park Corner and Woodhouse Cliff - 167
Woodhouse and Little London - 98
University and Little London - 92
Leeds City Centre - 75
Hyde Park - 63

By comparison the ward where I live, four miles east of the city centre has just 5 recorded cases in that week.

There has been a large surge in Leeds recorded cases since 30th September so the individual ward figures will probably now look much worse.

In one sense, it's not the end of the world if students, who are mainly young get infected as the vast majority will suffer little ill effect. The problem of course is if it spreads to the rest of the population.

[Graham Breeze]

In a number of places the recent spike seems to have been caused by the return of students. That certainly appears to be true in the case of Leeds.

The map below charts weekly cases by local ward. It is generally 4 or 5 days behind so at the moment it is showing the week to 30th September.

https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web...2c5f6912ed7076

The largest number of cases in Leeds are heavily clustered around the area just to the north of the city centre, where the universities are and where many students live.

Hyde Park Corner and Woodhouse Cliff - 167
Woodhouse and Little London - 98
University and Little London - 92
Leeds City Centre - 75
Hyde Park - 63

By comparison the ward where I live, four miles east of the city centre has just 5 recorded cases in that week.

There has been a large surge in Leeds recorded cases since 30th September so the individual ward figures will probably now look much worse.

In one sense, it's not the end of the world if students, who are mainly young get infected as the vast majority will suffer little ill effect. The problem of course is if it spreads to the rest of the population.

Thanks for the link. Hardly a surprise that it's all the fault of those students around Hyde Park Corner (of fond memory!)

Everything is relative and my mother told me there has been a "surge" in Ilkley, which has even more care homes than charity shops.

And so there has - to 15 cases.

[Fellbeast]

Thats a great link MR, thanks. Showing just 7 cases as at the end of September in my neck of the woods