Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by noel

I and the family saw the new Marvel mutants film at cinemac about a month ago. At the start of the film we were the only people there (a couple came in after about 10 minutes).

After some careful consideration of what opportunity this rare occurrence afforded me, I concluded that shouting something loudly and mildly offensive was something I'd be unlikely to do again. It felt liberating breaking the rules in a way that offended no-one, but I couldn't help feel my imagination was as little limited.

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As you may know films are now "projected" digitally by satellite from Sweden(?) and so even Pictureville, which is one of the best cinemas in the UK (being part of the National Museum of Cinema,TV, This and That) does not employ a projectionist - because there is no film to project! And the days of ladies selling Butterkist on trays are long gone so presumably there are CCTV cameras monitoring the auditorium to check the audience is not slashing the seats and dancing in the aisles when Rock Around The Clock is shown.

But perhaps you could test that on your next family excursion?

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

And the days of ladies selling Butterkist on trays are long gone

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Well there's still a lady selling ice-creams and such (I think they've stopped the smokes)at the interlude in the Keswick Alhambra Cinema. My local village hall's fortnightly film showing also halts the film midway for a very civilized break of tea and biscuits. We know how to have a wicked, debauched night out in upper Teesdale.

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

https://gbdeclaration.org/

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Well spotted Wheeze. There's a change in the air, perhaps?

Slightly both covid and film watching related: I took lockdown as a perfect excuse to upgrade our TV in April and, now with a beautiful Sony 50 incher, we have subsequently watched no end of great films on Netflix, Amazon Prime and Muji (and occasionally on Sky) as well as a whole host of fantastic TV series. You'll hate me for saying it Graham but we're not really missing the cinema at all.

Deadly pandemics do have their plus sides too I guess ;)

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

You'll hate me for saying it Graham but we're not really missing the cinema at all.

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Yep. You are right! :D

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Originally Posted by Mossdog

Well spotted Wheeze. There's a change in the air, perhaps?

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needs to accelrate a little though - it's actually linked to the unherd piece and video from a few days ago.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

needs to accelrate a little though - it's actually linked to the unherd piece and video from a few days ago.

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I doubt that this will fly to be honest. Pub and alcohol and students back at uni are now the big covid fire starters and that's where the next changes are likely to fall. So a similar limited period pub/restaurant closure in hot spots, like Scotland, and maybe some sort of students kept on campus (but all campus facilities and student's unions left open) segregation period?

The students thing is really difficult to get right but I bet the track and trace data is pointing massively in the direction of pubs and drinking as being one of the main causes of covid spreading. Thats what Nicola Sturgeon implied in Scotland and that could easily be the Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle etc

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

I doubt that this will fly to be honest. Pub and alcohol and students back at uni are now the big covid fire starters and that's where the next changes are likely to fall. So a similar limited period pub/restaurant closure in hot spots, like Scotland, and maybe some sort of students kept on campus (but all campus facilities and student's unions left open) segregation period?

The students thing is really difficult to get right but I bet the track and trace data is pointing massively in the direction of pubs and drinking as being one of the main causes of covid spreading. Thats what Nicola Sturgeon implied in Scotland and that could easily be the Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle etc

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I guess virtually every member of the cabinet went to university but they all appear to have amnesia over what it is like to be 18 and free from parents and a school regime and have money to spend and new friends to make...

The missing information is how many of those student hotspots are generating serious illness. The concern, of course, is that the hotspots of cases will spread upwards into the vulnerable. This is where individual responsibility for safeguarding comes into play. If I was over 60 living in a student town, I would consider public venues a deathtrap and isolate myself from them. Far from being unfair, I've had 45 years of fun visiting pubs and eateries etc. Staying away now so that the young can have their fun is not too hard to ask is it?
There are many other issues to consider such as multigenerational living and grandparents looking after grandchildren so the parents can work where the chance of transmission exists. But we are not naive about this now. We've had 6 months to understand how to manage things. It may require adjustment and even short term hardship but those things have to be taken on board if we are to avoid blanket shutdown again.

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

If I was over 60 living in a student town, I would consider public venues a deathtrap and isolate myself from them.

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But it's not just the over 60s, is it?
What about lecturers and staff in the universities? What about staff in public venues? All of whom can either suffer from or spread the virus and have no way of isolating?
What happens when students go home at Christmas, taking infection with them?

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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole

But it's not just the over 60s, is it?
What about lecturers and staff in the universities? What about staff in public venues? All of whom can either suffer from or spread the virus and have no was of isolating?
What happens when students go home at Christmas, taking infection with them?

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Yeah and also the high chance that they will infect crucial services, the most obvious being the NHS. We've been round this house before :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

We've been round this house before :rolleyes:

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sorry: I'm being tiresome and boring ;)

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

I doubt that this will fly to be honest. Pub and alcohol and students back at uni are now the big covid fire starters and that's where the next changes are likely to fall. So a similar limited period pub/restaurant closure in hot spots, like Scotland, and maybe some sort of students kept on campus (but all campus facilities and student's unions left open) segregation period?

The students thing is really difficult to get right but I bet the track and trace data is pointing massively in the direction of pubs and drinking as being one of the main causes of covid spreading. Thats what Nicola Sturgeon implied in Scotland and that could easily be the Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle etc

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In September, hospitality, which obviously includes pub was supposed to be responsible for only 5% of new covid infections. I haven't seen any more recent figures however.

I would agree that students back at university is the main driver behind the surge in a number of cities. You only have to look at the areas with the highest infections at the moment to see that. I suspect closing the pubs will just mean students will have house/halls of residence parties instead.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

In September, hospitality, which obviously includes pub was supposed to be responsible for only 5% of new covid infections. I haven't seen any more recent figures however.

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Hot off the press, it looks like they're saying its 30% now


https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/stat...258051072?s=20

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

Hot off the press, it looks like they're saying its 30% now


https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/stat...258051072?s=20

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If that's correct then fair enough.

But there are still a few things the don't add up for me.

1. Why has it suddenly increased so much? Apparently in the week before the 10pm curfew was announced pubs and restaurants were only contributing 3% of new cases, down from 5% the week before. Perhaps it's the daft curfew rule itself, which has led to lots of people being chucked out at the same time!
2. Why is the increase in infections not more uniform across the country? Pubs are everywhere after all.
3. Why did Sheffield's new cases triple in a week? They've had their pubs open for a few months so why such an impact now?

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

If that's correct then fair enough.

But there are still a few things the don't add up for me.

1. Why has it suddenly increased so much? Apparently in the week before the 10pm curfew was announced pubs and restaurants were only contributing 3% of new cases, down from 5% the week before. Perhaps it's the daft curfew rule itself, which has led to lots of people being chucked out at the same time!
2. Why is the increase in infections not more uniform across the country? Pubs are everywhere after all.
3. Why did Sheffield's new cases triple in a week? They've had their pubs open for a few months so why such an impact now?

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Simple answer, I haven't a clue :rolleyes: :)

Maybe part of the answer is that the national lockdown, both going in and coming out, was too London centric? There were perhaps relatively few real cases in the north in February/March but, by the time lockdown was ending, covid was still knocking around, albeit in small pockets. For sure by then there were a lot of the public really thirsty for the pub, with a fair few of them I'm guessing (up north) never really experiencing much in the way of friends and family getting covid in the first place. So you then have a bunch of drinkers, many a bit too relaxed and/or sceptical about covid, with not much of the wider population (up north) having had exposure to covid, all starting to socialise and lose social distancing after a few. And then the fast accelerating compound interest of covid takes over?

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

Simple answer, I haven't a clue :rolleyes: :)

Maybe part of the answer is that the national lockdown, both going in and coming out, was too London centric? There were perhaps relatively few real cases in the north in February/March but, by the time lockdown was ending, covid was still knocking around, albeit in small pockets. For sure by then there were a lot of the public really thirsty for the pub, with a fair few of them I'm guessing (up north) never really experiencing much in the way of friends and family getting covid in the first place. So you then have a bunch of drinkers, many a bit too relaxed and/or sceptical about covid, with not much of the wider population (up north) having had exposure to covid, all starting to socialise and lose social distancing after a few. And then the fast accelerating compound interest of covid takes over?

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I think it's at least partially to do with people not self-isolating or taking precautions like social distancing etc. But it is weirdly patchy. Lack of a decent track and trace system doesn't help, but even if fully working, would still rely on the honesty and intergrity of those asked to self isolate doing so. Certainly not helped by Trump's latest shenanigans.

Apparently we're 10 days away from ICUs reaching a critical stage.....

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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole

Apparently we're 10 days away from ICUs reaching a critical stage.....

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10 days surprises me.

I'm not saying the current figures and increase aren't a cause for concern but:

- Number of people in hospital in England is currently 2,944. The peak was 17,172 on 12th April.
- Number of people on ventilators in England is currently 376. The peak was 2,881 also on 12th April.

Even if those figures were to double in 10 days, (which would be faster than at the moment) they would still be much less than earlier in the year.

I was out running in the Outwoods today, and encountered a group of at least 50 primary school children with about 6 adults. No social distancing . . . but I was really pleased to see young children being taken out for healthy activities, recognising that they present very low Covid-related risks.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

If that's correct then fair enough.

But there are still a few things the don't add up for me...

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You're right. It seems very strange that rates in London are so low. They have lots of the things that people have previously said were driving the rates in other places: students, areas with lots of large extended families, deprived high-density areas...

Maybe you're right FB: people in Northern cities weren't affected much before, and too many people are blasé about it now.

As well as on this forum, there's a lot of hot air out in Government circles.

The Scottish Chief Medical Officer’s Covid-19 Note giving the evidence for the new restrictions makes indicates new infections in Scotland could reach over 35k per day “without further intervention”.

It is accompanied by this wonderful image.

Attachment 8823

The lower rate in the band is 25,000 cases per day - in Scotland - how do these clowns get a salaried position? They should be sectioned.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

As well as on this forum, there's a lot of hot air out in Government circles.

The Scottish Chief Medical Officer’s Covid-19 Note giving the evidence for the new restrictions makes indicates new infections in Scotland could reach over 35k per day “without further intervention”.

It is accompanied by this wonderful image.

Attachment 8823

The lower rate in the band is 25,000 cases per day - in Scotland - how do these clowns get a salaried position? They should be sectioned.

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That is though the magical scary power of exponential growth. The old fable of the inventor of chess being rewarded by the king of the day with anything he wanted. And all he asked for was one grain of rice on the first square of his chessboard, two on the second, four on the third until all 64 squares were filled. Which the king immediately agreed too, thinking it a cheap deal. The thing is though once you're into the second half of the chessboard things go bonkers. There are over 18 quintillion grains of rice on a chessboard, whatever the heck that number is. Thats doubling the number one 63 times :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

10 days surprises me.

I'm not saying the current figures and increase aren't a cause for concern but:

- Number of people in hospital in England is currently 2,944. The peak was 17,172 on 12th April.
- Number of people on ventilators in England is currently 376. The peak was 2,881 also on 12th April.

Even if those figures were to double in 10 days, (which would be faster than at the moment) they would still be much less than earlier in the year.

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I think it depends on the definition of "critical stage". I don't think the meaning was "close to being overwhelmed", but perhaps "if things don't get better they will rapidly get worse". Like FB says: once you start getting into only slightly higher numbers, doubling gets more serious very quickly.

Edited to add: now saying northern England to reach it's peak in ICU cases in 22 days!

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

That is though the magical scary power of exponential growth. The old fable of the inventor of chess being rewarded by the king of the day with anything he wanted. And all he asked for was one grain of rice on the first square of his chessboard, two on the second, four on the third until all 64 squares were filled. Which the king immediately agreed too, thinking it a cheap deal. The thing is though once you're into the second half of the chessboard things go bonkers. There are over 18 quintillion grains of rice on a chessboard, whatever the heck that number is. Thats doubling the number one 63 times :rolleyes:

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Too true - and if you take the 1 case day 1, 4 case day 6, 16 cases day 11..... you end up with just over 14 million cases Day 61 (accumulative 20 million)
That sort of R=4 exponential growth without any measures would have taken us to early - mid March just before lockdown and to the point when the virus would have started running out of people to infect and start a natural decline.

Perhaps it did?

according to Whitty today:
“The really scary thing for the north-west and north-east is that the projection is for there to be more people in intensive care within three weeks – 22 days actually – than there were in the first wave,”
also
hospitality accounted for 41% of linked Covid cases among under-30s....
and
we're now up to 17,540 new cases a day with more than 500 hospital admissions/day.

anyone believe this from the ONS that Ed Conway has latched on to?

Only 394 flu deaths this year in first 8 months. 13619 Pneumonia and 48,168 Covid.

5 year average to end August for Flu and Pneumonia pre Covid would be interesting to compare. Bet it's not a long way off 60k.

Attachment 8824

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

anyone believe this from the ONS that Ed Conway has latched on to?

Only 394 flu deaths this year in first 8 months. 13619 Pneumonia and 48,168 Covid.

5 year average to end August for Flu and Pneumonia pre Covid would be interesting to compare. Bet it's not a long way off 60k.

Attachment 8824

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I hear they're considering replacing, or is that supplementing, the 'old' 5 stage Covid Alert Levels https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...kdown-11985894 , with a 3 tier system for Covid restrictions, so as to make things far simpler to understand (well, that's good then). Tier 3, otherwise known as Scorched Earth Policy, I guess will be trialed in t'North of England, a kind of Harrying Of The North 2.0. Less a case of Levelling Up but more of ...erm... well just Levelling. :(

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

anyone believe this from the ONS that Ed Conway has latched on to?

Only 394 flu deaths this year in first 8 months. 13619 Pneumonia and 48,168 Covid.

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Maybe it just means that the flu vaccination programme is doing a really good job of protecting vulnerable people?

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Originally Posted by Mossdog

Tier 3, otherwise known as Scorched Earth Policy, I guess will be trialed in t'North of England, a kind of Harrying Of The North 2.0.

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Yes, severe travel restrictions: as you go down Teesdale, you will find roadblocks, with no-one allowed into Barnard Castle without a valid eye-test appointment. :p

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Originally Posted by anthonykay

Yes, severe travel restrictions: as you go down Teesdale, you will find roadblocks, with no-one allowed into Barnard Castle without a valid eye-test appointment. :p

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You're not far wrong AK. We're fiercely proud of our minuscule 0-2 Positive COVID cases, https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web...2c5f6912ed7076 maintained partially by the Pick-Up Truck and trailer barricades manned at Folly-top and Cotherstone. I'm down to do my pitch fork and burning torch session every Friday 22:00 - 6:00.

No Pasaran!

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FvW_2IvDtzI/hqdefault.jpg

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Originally Posted by anthonykay

Yes, severe travel restrictions: as you go down Teesdale, you will find roadblocks, with no-one allowed into Barnard Castle without a valid eye-test appointment. :p

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Anthony

I suppose you read The Guardian and so did not see my letter suggesting that anyone who can quote Bob Dylan isn't all bad.

Btw when is the next Honours List announced?:)

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

anyone believe this from the ONS that Ed Conway has latched on to?

Only 394 flu deaths this year in first 8 months. 13619 Pneumonia and 48,168 Covid.

5 year average to end August for Flu and Pneumonia pre Covid would be interesting to compare. Bet it's not a long way off 60k.

Attachment 8824

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From what I remember, flu is rarely recorded on the cause of death, whereas pneumonia is often recorded when people have developed this following flu - because it's the pneumonia what kills them. I think normally people estimate how many flu deaths there have been by looking at excess mortality. This gets tricky when COVID's about too.

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Originally Posted by Mossdog

I hear they're considering replacing, or is that supplementing, the 'old' 5 stage Covid Alert Levels https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...kdown-11985894 , with a 3 tier system for Covid restrictions, so as to make things far simpler to understand (well, that's good then). Tier 3, otherwise known as Scorched Earth Policy, I guess will be trialed in t'North of England, a kind of Harrying Of The North 2.0. Less a case of Levelling Up but more of ...erm... well just Levelling. :(

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Puts me in mind of the Buckner Report recommendation (2007 I think) that athletics junior age groups of U13/U15/U17 were confusing and should change to U14/U16/U18
Odd numbers are tougher for the average parent and child to get their heads around.

A bit morbid but Pneumonia used to be known as “old man’s friend” in the olden days. Maybe Covid is its modern version, only it’s not quite as “pleasant”. https://pneumonia.biomedcentral.com/...479-018-0052-7

according to Lucy Powell Labour MP, the Whitty presentation yesterday contained bogus stats, from selective sources and drawing on a 3 month old study in the US.
She said it makes you wonder whether they know what they are doing.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

according to Lucy Powell Labour MP, the Whitty presentation yesterday contained bogus stats, from selective sources and drawing on a 3 month old study in the US.
She said it makes you wonder whether they know what they are doing.

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This implies that MPs know more about the sources and the stats than the scientists.

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Originally Posted by XRunner

This implies that MPs know more about the sources and the stats than the scientists.

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It claimed that 29.8 per cent of exposures to coronavirus occurred in pubs and restaurants, with just 2.6 per cent of infections happening in people's homes.

However, official NHS Test and Trace figures have shown that 75.3 per cent of transmissions happened in the home, with only 5.5 per cent happening in pubs, restaurants and churches.

The Department of Health admitted the figures shown to MPs "do not give us any hard conclusions about where the virus is being transmitted".

The data for pubs relied on just 98 cases in which two or more people who were infected had reported being in the same place, with no proof that that was where they caught the virus.

from a Telegrpah account which is behind a paywall.

Make of it what you will.

funny that none of those figures relate to the data as shared:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjzmvoUW...jpg&name=large

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

Make of it what you will.

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What I make of the newspaper report and the MP's comment is that journalists and MPs will misuse statistics to 'prove' their particular point.

Scientists are far more likely to be aware about the correct use of statistics to support their reports.

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Originally Posted by XRunner

What I make of the newspaper report and the MP's comment is that journalists and MPs will misuse statistics to 'prove' their particular point.

Scientists are far more likely to be aware about the correct use of statistics to support their reports.

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Ahem....! Do you really think so? :D It's worth reading Thomas Kuhn's classic about scientific progress.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_St...ic_Revolutions