I posted this link a week ago.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...453-7/fulltext
It was described as about improving accuracy and reliability, and I agree. There are huge question marks over the accuracy and reliability of testing.
The current rate of operational false-positive swab tests in the UK is unknown; preliminary estimates show it could be somewhere between 0·8% and 4·0%
Of course any issue with testing would be national and not localised and you have asked for thoughts on localised problems.
Is there an issue of case chasing? Find a few cases, track and race, hit the hotspots with your mobile testing teams.
If you do that, and particularly if you are focussing on the student population, and there is a problem with the test, that is going to be amplified.
September is always the start of the respiratory illness season as we move in to Autumn. I don't know if there are historic records for regionalised effects of this. I've only seen national ones which indicate that in a bad Septmeber we can see >20,000 hospital admissions for respiratory conditions.
I'm assuming this is partly weather, partly back to school, back from holidays. That being the case the weather would certainly bring that forward in Scotland and the North.
Finally, the North and Scotland have had strciter lockdown measures. Maybe those measures are more of a problem than a solution?
Originally Posted by Witton Park
