Get all cash out of the bank

[daz h]

Ive a prediction for the next twelve months
Im going to finish paying our mortgage and then pack up work and take up GROUSE SHOOTING , wooooooooooooooooooha


By the way
INVEST in MARGARINE , its the future

[TheHeathens]

I thought you didn't take financial advice from forumites? I'll assume you've changed your mind.

If you've invested in one or more companies without understanding what you're doing(gambling) then you may make gains or you may lose everything, depending on how those companies perform, and regardless of whether you invest in one or more.

Now if you know what you're doing, why invest in three companies when your projections point to greater success in one. Only in the case where your projections point to an equal success rate in several of the best companies, is there any justification in diversifying. That's hardly ever, just look at current share prices.

I'm glad you said that because I do know what I'm doing, so your argument falls down straight away. You are talking about random investing to support your argument, but no-one else is.

3 questions, please answer them without any analogies:

1) What projections are you talking about?
2) How can you be sure which is going to be the successful one?
3) How much of your wealth would you bet on this conviction?

[daz h]

Heathens
Your dead right about crude oil

Capacity is a major problem and I believe it was the instant rapid price of fuel just a short while ago that really but the brakes on our economy and started this spiral.

One major problem for this is that the refineries in America like oil that is produced from countries like mehico and venuswalaha.
Its a different type of oil
sweet crude instead of the stuff from Saudi etc that is sour crude.

[CL]

You don't know that number 5 is going to win - that is more of a gamble than betting on black. You have a 1/36 chance of winning big, but a 35/36 chance of losing all your money.

The rest of your argument is pointless because your basis to it is flawed. Gambling and investing are not the same because investing is not based on random conditions

I do if there is a powerful electromagnet on the wheel at number 5, and an iron core in the ball. You're right though I don't know that number 5 is going to come in, that was the point I was making.

If I put £1 on black and a £1 on zero, then in the long run I'll lose exactly the same amount of money based on probability.( By the way the probability of getting number 5 is 1/37 not one 1/36).

The rest of my argument is not pointless as you well know. The truth is no one in our society today knows what the government is going to do next. It's not like we have a constitution that delimites government power.Therefore the diversification of funds into different companies is a gamble.

If you weren't gambling you'd put your money into one company I.e the best one.

[CL]

I'm glad you said that because I do know what I'm doing, so your argument falls down straight away. You are talking about random investing to support your argument, but no-one else is.

3 questions, please answer them without any analogies:

1) What projections are you talking about?
2) How can you be sure which is going to be the successful one?
3) How much of your wealth would you bet on this conviction?

No I'm not just talking about random investments as anyone can see from my argument.

1)The projections are the future estimated profits of the companies.

2) I can't be sure today, but neither can you, that's why you're gambling. If investments were sure things we wouldn't be in the mess we're in today, thanks to so called financial experts.

3) None I don't gamble on conviction.

[TheHeathens]

The truth is no one in our society today knows what the government is going to do next. It's not like we have a constitution that delimites government power.Therefore the diversification of funds into different companies is a gamble.

No it's not, it's a hedge against losing all of your money. Ask those who invested in the technology boom where their money is now?

[Swoop]

Ive a prediction for the next twelve months
Im going to finish paying our mortgage and then pack up work and take up GROUSE SHOOTING , wooooooooooooooooooha


By the way
INVEST in MARGARINE , its the future

If you shoot grouse I don't think margarine has got much future.

[Margarine]

What are they on about?

[TheHeathens]

No I'm not just talking about random investments as anyone can see from my argument.

1)The projections are the future estimated profits of the companies.

10 years ago, technology companies were estimating HUGE future profits. Anyone remember Altavista and Lycos? Lycos was bought for $12.5 billion in 2000 and sold for $95 million in 2004

2) I can't be sure today, but neither can you, that's why you're gambling. If investments were sure things we wouldn't be in the mess we're in today, thanks to so called financial experts.

I can look at 5 or 6 different areas I expect to do well and spread the investment across them. This is not gambling, because gambling is based on random events and investing isn't.

Plenty of well-respected economists were predicting this situation in 2003 / 2004.

3) None I don't gamble on conviction.

So what've you actually been arguing about in this thread?

[CL]

No it's not, it's a hedge against losing all of your money. Ask those who invested in the technology boom where their money is now?

The Oxford English dictionary defines a hedge fund as:an offshore investment fund that engages in speculation using credit or borrowed capital.

It also defines the term speculate: form a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

In other words gambling.