Brexit

[Muddy Retriever]

Why require?


UK Car Manufacturing and our Imports and Exports
Figures are 1st quarter 2016 and are from HMRC trade info figures for Chapter 87 Products (Vehicles). Amounts are £s Billions.
EU Imports = 11.9 UK Exports to EU = 4.3
RoW Imports = 2.3 UK Exports to RoW = 4.4
UK Sales in UK = 2.6
Ttl UK Market = 16.8 Ttl UK Manufactured = 11.3

Those are interesting figures Witton. Most tariffs under WTO rules are much less than 10%, I believe about 3% or 4%. But because they are 10% on cars David Cameron and others in the remain campaign go on about the potential damage to the UK car industry if we exited the EU. Strangely enough they never go on to say that the EU exports far more cars to us and therefore will most definitely not want a 10% tariff.

Hard to imagine the CEO's of Audi, Mercedes, BMW and others not banging on the door of Mrs Merkel demanding a free trade deal with the UK.

[Derby Tup]

One of the most reasoned comments I've heard re Brexit was from "money saving expert" Martin Lewis, and for him it was 45:55 remain. Its very complex with many variables and I'm not sure I trust anyone who has a very clear cut view either way, especially as time has gone on

[Witton Park]

One of the most reasoned comments I've heard re Brexit was from "money saving expert" Martin Lewis, and for him it was 45:55 remain. Its very complex with many variables and I'm not sure I trust anyone who has a very clear cut view either way, especially as time has gone on

Yes I saw that. But I've seen the Remain jump on it and flood social media with it and misrepresent his very marginal decision.
That decision was also based on financial only and didn't take in to account some of the other factors such as democratic accountability.

Corbyn on Sky last night was about the first real honest assessment I've seen from a politician. He isn't a fan of the EU in it's current form but thinks we should stay in and reform it.
The issue I have with that, is that it will not reform. It hasn't offered Cameron anything even with the threat of a referendum.

[Witton Park]

Those are interesting figures Witton. Most tariffs under WTO rules are much less than 10%, I believe about 3% or 4%. But because they are 10% on cars David Cameron and others in the remain campaign go on about the potential damage to the UK car industry if we exited the EU. Strangely enough they never go on to say that the EU exports far more cars to us and therefore will most definitely not want a 10% tariff.

Hard to imagine the CEO's of Audi, Mercedes, BMW and others not banging on the door of Mrs Merkel demanding a free trade deal with the UK.

The average tariff of goods in to the EU in 2014 (that last year I could find) was 2.6%. That is because even under WTO many items are free of duty, or very low duty.
Items of high duty tend not to be traded if available in the local market.

There's another issue here with the cars.

At the moment the EU takes all the import duty with the exception of an admin fee retained by the host country.

In a 10% EU/UK situation, based on those 1st quarter figures the EU would collect £430 Million in duty and the UK would collect £1.19B duty.
That's per quarter.
That's somewhere between £2B and £3B a year in duty that the UK would collect.

Now in reality that figure would reduce as both UK and EU would see reduced sale in each others markets.

BUT that would only be a flow to the EU, if and when we have a trade surplus in car with the EU.

That's part of the counter balance you get from tariffs.

[Muddy Retriever]

The issue I have with that, is that it will not reform. It hasn't offered Cameron anything even with the threat of a referendum.

I suspect there are many who will vote to remain thinking that the EU can be reformed some how. It can't as Cameron unwittingly demonstrated.

In fact the EU plans to push ahead with further integration but many of it's officials are keeping quiet until after June 23rd. We already know what the plan is however because it was unveiled in the "Five President's Report" last year. This includes plans for 'fiscal and political union’, ‘further pooling of decision-making on national budgets’, and harmonisation of ‘insolvency law’, ‘company law’, ‘property rights’ and ‘social security systems.’ This is ostensibly a measure in response to the euro crisis. But since it is being brought in as a Single Market measure it will affect all 28 members of the EU.

If we vote to remain as appears increasingly likely I'm sure that it will be taken as acquiescence to the European project. After our years of protesting from the sidelines, it wouldn't be surprising if they now told us to shut up. Our people had spoken.

[Witton Park]

Brexit may only encourage Russian aggression. Far better to stay strong than risk another turf war with the poor esatern europeans yet again bearing the brunt. I'm with you on your arguments because in my heart I am still a leaver. But my head says no.

Wonder how Africa would be if it behaved like EU? No more tin-pot dictators murdering and massacring? No more tide of displaced humanity desperately trying to get to the haven of EU???

I'm surprised you think like that.

Since the turn of the century the EU has accepted 11 new members from the old Warsaw Pact area and we have others lined up to join.
It's like poking a stick at the Russians.

What next? Armenia, Ajerbaijan?

I'm not suggesting these countries shouldn't join and develop, but I think Russia has been largely excluded and it's position now in Ukraine and Syria is perhaps as much a response to the EU.

The UK has much more diplomatic experience as a UN security council member and senior member of NATO, as well as from the Commonwealth.

The EU doesn't, as largely they have been under the umbrella of the USA and NATO and I would say the EU is more likely to antagonise by it's economic empire building as it threatens the Russian standing in it's patch.

[RaceTheSweeper]

https://www.facebook.com/raheemjkass...type=2&theater

[mr brightside]

One of my customers has changed sides. The Bank of England swayed him out to in. He's 29 and thinks we'll remain in the EU off the youth vote

The problem with the 'youth vote' is that they're all so easily led. They're not bold enough to accept the fact that life is going to get more and more tough for 95% of world population, depletion of resources and overpopulation will see to this alone irrespective of political instability. Instead they cling to the sort of cowardly optimism pedalled by people like David Cameron and bury their heads in the sand dreaming of fantasies such as this 'recovery' idea. The optimism of the 'youth vote' may well be set to send our small island into an uncontrollable population increase; that's why i'm voting out- it's purely on a headcount Vs resourses basis.

To address the economic argument, which is the big hitter for the in camp, the economy is already suffering through uncertainty. The FTSE100 has been all over the place because nobody knows what's going to happen, as soon as something happens there'll be a short adjustment period then business as usual. There's no way all these tales of rack and ruin will come to pass, Cameron will graft to keep his party in power and think of the bragging rights if an exit goes smoothly. I think they've got all scenarios covered, there's so much smoke and mirrors.

[Stagger]

Are any of you lot related to always injured?
Or
Are you practicing typists?

[Witton Park]

Are any of you lot related to always injured?
Or
Are you practicing typists?

Just for you Trev

Some final info to help you decide to VOTE LEAVE.

The Economy
Even the Treasury Dodgy Dossier published by Osborne a few weeks ago predicts that by 2030 UK GDP will be 31% higher than it is now.
SO WE WILL NOT HAVE ECONOMIC DOOM!
The EU is not an insurance against recessions and the affects of recessions. In fact the EU has been affected more and taken longer to recover from the economic collapse of 7 years ago.
The UK has recovered quicker and better that the rest of the EU, probably from our current half-in type of EU membership.
Maybe we would have recovered even quicker had we been fully out!

The truth is no one can predict with any real accuracy. Our economy will be far more influenced by ourselves and by world events than our membership of the EU.
A vote to leave will not be doom, and it will not be boom and that is what even all the experts are saying.

The Single Market.
It is presented like we should all be winners, because we are all equally treated.
WRONG!
It is biased to the Eurozone as they do not have currency costs to consider.
It is biased to the European mainland and the central EU nations as they do not have the logistical costs of getting goods across the Channel or across the full length of the Continent.
You only need to look at the balance of trade to see that.

Immigration.
We need some control over who comes in to be able to plan our facilities and services and even Remainers have recently started to accknowledge this.
The free movement of the EU does not allow us to exercise any control over who comes in to the UK.
In an effort to try and slow the rate of net immigration the UK has restrictions on immigrants from RoW. We already have an Australian style system of requirements/restrictions for the RoW.
The EU system discriminates against £6 Billion people.
The EU system means we are limiting our capacity to bring in skilled people from the Americas, Asia and Africa.
An EU shelf-stacker, or an Asian engineer? If we were allowed to select we can make decisions in our best interests. Allowing in the skilled people we are short of and restricting those that are competing for jobs with our 1.5 million unemployed.
I’m not anti shelf-stacker. But employment is the first step on the ladder to a better life and a shelf-stacker may be that first step for some of the 1.5 million.
It is unlikely that we have many skilled engineers on job seekers at the moment.

Democracy and Accountability.
No other trade organisation in the world draws legal power away from the nationally elected government.
The EU does make legal decisions on our behalf and makes law. The proportion is debatable.
What isn’t debatable is that this has increased with every treaty and continues to increase.
What isn’t debatable is that with the expansion of the EU, the UK has lost its influence. We have lost a Commissioner. We have 1/28 of a say now compared to 1/9 when we joined.
The UK population can change its national and local government at least every 5 years. It cannot change the EU Governance and in fact the EU hierarchy is made up of many politicians rejected by their national electorate but put back in to a place of influence by their domestic party machine.

Influence in the World
We will lose influence if we leave the EU. Right? Not really.
We can take our seat back at the WTO. That will actually give us a voice on many issues before it even gets down to EU level and allow us to shape Global trade policy again.
The UK has ceded to the EU on many matters that are actually decided at world level before they even end up at the EU. Technical standards for example, are largely shaped at world level.
By leaving the EU we lose influence within in it, but strangely we will gain influence upon it as we take our seat back in international bodies.

So we will not lose influence, we will change the way we influence.
We will cut out the “middle man”.

So please think about it. This isn't a decision like a General Election for 5 years.
This isn't left-right politics.
This is a decision for the rest of the century.
VOTE LEAVE and open up the UK to the whole world again.