Brexit

[Roy Scott]

Having recently retired from the forum, I've just bobbed back for a very brief moment to agree 100% with Geoff. I'm ashamed to be British

There is nothing to be ashamed about. The vast majority of people that voted to leave were relatively educated on the issues, but the media have portrayed a very different picture post election. To say that 52% of those that voted were racist is simply out of order and based on this country's largely tolerant populations (especially relative to other EU countries), I say that the arguments were well beyond this level.

Also consider the scaremongering from the remain side. Consider the fact that my household received 11 leaflets through the door pushing remain, without one from the other side. With these factors considered this was democracy at large. Now let's not panic and make the most of the opportunities presented.

[Roy Scott]

Just for you Trev

Some final info to help you decide to VOTE LEAVE.

The Economy
Even the Treasury Dodgy Dossier published by Osborne a few weeks ago predicts that by 2030 UK GDP will be 31% higher than it is now.
SO WE WILL NOT HAVE ECONOMIC DOOM!
The EU is not an insurance against recessions and the affects of recessions. In fact the EU has been affected more and taken longer to recover from the economic collapse of 7 years ago.
The UK has recovered quicker and better that the rest of the EU, probably from our current half-in type of EU membership.
Maybe we would have recovered even quicker had we been fully out!

The truth is no one can predict with any real accuracy. Our economy will be far more influenced by ourselves and by world events than our membership of the EU.
A vote to leave will not be doom, and it will not be boom and that is what even all the experts are saying.

The Single Market.
It is presented like we should all be winners, because we are all equally treated.
WRONG!
It is biased to the Eurozone as they do not have currency costs to consider.
It is biased to the European mainland and the central EU nations as they do not have the logistical costs of getting goods across the Channel or across the full length of the Continent.
You only need to look at the balance of trade to see that.

Immigration.
We need some control over who comes in to be able to plan our facilities and services and even Remainers have recently started to accknowledge this.
The free movement of the EU does not allow us to exercise any control over who comes in to the UK.
In an effort to try and slow the rate of net immigration the UK has restrictions on immigrants from RoW. We already have an Australian style system of requirements/restrictions for the RoW.
The EU system discriminates against £6 Billion people.
The EU system means we are limiting our capacity to bring in skilled people from the Americas, Asia and Africa.
An EU shelf-stacker, or an Asian engineer? If we were allowed to select we can make decisions in our best interests. Allowing in the skilled people we are short of and restricting those that are competing for jobs with our 1.5 million unemployed.
I’m not anti shelf-stacker. But employment is the first step on the ladder to a better life and a shelf-stacker may be that first step for some of the 1.5 million.
It is unlikely that we have many skilled engineers on job seekers at the moment.

Democracy and Accountability.
No other trade organisation in the world draws legal power away from the nationally elected government.
The EU does make legal decisions on our behalf and makes law. The proportion is debatable.
What isn’t debatable is that this has increased with every treaty and continues to increase.
What isn’t debatable is that with the expansion of the EU, the UK has lost its influence. We have lost a Commissioner. We have 1/28 of a say now compared to 1/9 when we joined.
The UK population can change its national and local government at least every 5 years. It cannot change the EU Governance and in fact the EU hierarchy is made up of many politicians rejected by their national electorate but put back in to a place of influence by their domestic party machine.

Influence in the World
We will lose influence if we leave the EU. Right? Not really.
We can take our seat back at the WTO. That will actually give us a voice on many issues before it even gets down to EU level and allow us to shape Global trade policy again.
The UK has ceded to the EU on many matters that are actually decided at world level before they even end up at the EU. Technical standards for example, are largely shaped at world level.
By leaving the EU we lose influence within in it, but strangely we will gain influence upon it as we take our seat back in international bodies.

So we will not lose influence, we will change the way we influence.
We will cut out the “middle man”.

So please think about it. This isn't a decision like a General Election for 5 years.
This isn't left-right politics.
This is a decision for the rest of the century.
VOTE LEAVE and open up the UK to the whole world again.

I wish the leave vote had put the argument forward as well as you have WP. Some of the issues are complex and require a bit more analysis than the sound bites that have been thrown out there. The younger demographic that are now making a fuss and demanding a second referendum might feel differently had this been the case.

[Roy Scott]

What frustrates me about the whole thing is how intelligent people can possibly think Brexit is good for the country

The economy is only going to go one way now and that is down and everyone that was worried about immigration will need to start worrying about value of pensions dropping, benefit cuts, further cuts to public services.

It is beyond me how people can be so naïve!!

So can you please present an educated augment against each of WP's, MR's and CL's points to show their naivety.

[bigfella]

Personally I don't see a link between allowing free trade and allowing free movement.

In principle I don't have a problem with free movement as long as each countries economies, social benefits etc. are broadly equivalent. The problems start when the economies aren't balanced and for some reason the UK seem to be a bit of a magnet. This is then compounded when Angela Merkel says please all come to Germany as we know most will end up in the UK anyway.

[DrPatrickBarry]

for some reason the UK seem to be a bit of a magnet.

The UK is not a very strong magnet
EU Migrants per head of population
1 Luxembourg
2 Malta
3 Ireland
4 Austria
5 Sweeden

10 UK



http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist...ants)_YB16.png

[Witton Park]

The UK is not a very strong magnet
EU Migrants per head of population
1 Luxembourg
2 Malta
3 Ireland
4 Austria
5 Sweeden

10 UK



http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist...ants)_YB16.png

Dig out the stats for the Home Nations and you might see why it isn't an issue for Scotland.

[Wheeze]

As usual Pat, those figures are misleading. The only country above us in the top 10 with a population more than London is Germany. For somewhere like Luxembourg with only 540K inhabitants, a small number of immigrants can put them at the top of that table.
Here is the graph in full. I'd say we are just below Germany as to the most immigrants absorbed and ahead of all the others in that top 10.
800px-Immigrants,_2014_(per_1_000_inhabitants)_YB16.jpg

[Mike T]

Not to worry. The immigration "issue" will soon solve itself - the UK economy will shrink so much that coming here will be no longer be attractive.

[Witton Park]

I agree with all of that WP. Thing is, how will Brexit fix it?

Brexit can help, but subject to Govt policy.

The pull factors of high wages and benefit top-ups, along with the comparatively excellent education, health etc have no brake mechanism at the moment.
There is the possibility of applying a brake once this process is completed.

That will reduce the over-supply of labour for unskilled jobs.

(it can actually be done in conjunction with increasing the supply of skilled labour)

I would then add some UK policies to help - something like this.

1. Measures to restrict the use of agency work. We've seen the Sports Direct warehouse where almost all are agency staff.
Employers should not be able to outsource their responsibility like this, so say a 10% max limit on the amount of labour that can be brought in through agencies with possible exceptions for seasonal periods such as we already have in the working time directive.

2. Same goes for zero hours. There is a place for it, my daughter actually opted for bank work rather than fixed contract as it suited her.
But again a limit - eg. employers with more than 10 employees cannot have more than 10% of their staff on zero hours contracts.

It is also possible to force employers to issue contracts based on (for example) the previous periods average working hours.

3. Address the issues with employers NI. 0% to £156 per week and then 13.8% on all above that. It incentivises an employer to keep pay below or as close to £156 a week.
I would fix it at a flat rate of perhaps 8% on all pay.
I would gradually phase it out.
It is a jobs tax in effect and it would help by cutting Labour costs

4. We often have pockets of unemployment that are detached from areas where there are jobs but it only takes a little imagination to resolve it.
eg. Lincolnshire around Boston and Sleaford is known as an area where the employers seem to have a need for unskilled Labour that cannot be filled locally.
North East Lincolnshire around Cleethorpes, Grimsby, Scunthorpe has higher than average unemployment and areas of deprivation.
It shouldn't be that difficult to work out a way to link the two together as they are 30 miles apart.

Just a few ideas and not all of them Brexit linked of course.

[molehill]

There is nothing to be ashamed about. The vast majority of people that voted to leave were relatively educated on the issues, but the media have portrayed a very different picture post election. To say that 52% of those that voted were racist is simply out of order and based on this country's largely tolerant populations (especially relative to other EU countries), I say that the arguments were well beyond this level.

I don't think anyone with a brain or reasonable thought process would think that voting Brexit was racist or made anyone a racist. Unfortunately racists (whatever their number or percentage) did attach themselves to the cause and subsequently this became a part of the campaign propaganda and the media reporting. Unsavoury bedfellows, a bit like bedbugs you are stuck with them.

Now those small minorities (I hope it is only small) are gaining more media coverage by their actions, out of proportion to the general populations feelings and hopefully it will blow over in time, but no, they haven't helped the Brexit campaign.