post brexit

[Muddy Retriever]

Yes I know the other brexit arguments on the economy (largely shot full of holes now though),

If they have been I must have missed them. According to the Treasury just before the referendum, we would already be going into recession in the quarter to September. Instead growth was 0.5%. In fact the only prediction I can think of so far from Project Fear that has come true is the weakening of the pound. And given our very large current account deficit that's largely a good thing.

Racism was the element that won the day for brexit

To have concerns about the scale of immigration is not racism. Of course in the case of a minority of people this will be a factor. But mass immigration does put pressure on infrastructure and when much of it is unskilled on the pay rates of some people. Even Lord Rose, the head of the Remain Campaign admitted that.

Near where I live to the east of Leeds, the council has proposed a 5,000 home development. This is on the historic Parlington estate, which is a nice area of fields and woodland. Many people in my club are up in arms as we regularly run on the trails there and this will all be destroyed. I fully share their concerns but of course people have to live somewhere and there are only so many brownfield sites. When you have immigration on the scale that this country has experienced then destruction of the countryside is inevitable.

[Stolly]

If they have been I must have missed them. According to the Treasury just before the referendum, we would already be going into recession in the quarter to September. Instead growth was 0.5%. In fact the only prediction I can think of so far from Project Fear that has come true is the weakening of the pound. And given our very large current account deficit that's largely a good thing.

A week pound improves exports but makes imports more expensive. Amongst other things, imports such as oil. Ignoring tariffs (which may come later) price increases directly cause inflation. Toblerone have already taken drastic action , VW have announced price increases, and Unilever are strongly hinting at them so this isn't something that might happen, its already happening. Inflation, unless earnings rise hand in hand with it, decreases demand for goods. Inflation also usually leads to interest rate rises and, at present, aren't we at largest ever personal borrowing levels at £1.5 trillion? The IFS have predicted a £25 billion additional borrowing requirement for the government in this parliament directly down to Brexit - that's £25 billion taking into account EU contribution savings! If that proves to be the case how is Brexit economically a good thing?

To have concerns about the scale of immigration is not racism. Of course in the case of a minority of people this will be a factor. But mass immigration does put pressure on infrastructure and when much of it is unskilled on the pay rates of some people. Even Lord Rose, the head of the Remain Campaign admitted that.

I'm not talking about concerns over immigration. Lots of people, brexiters and remainers, Germans, French, Dutch et al have concerns over that. I'm talking about out and out racism.

[Stolly]

This Guardian article from a couple of years ago provides some useful stats on racial prejudice. Its uncanny how that survey's findings mirror brexit voter profiles

[sbrt]

I'm not talking about concerns over immigration. Lots of people, brexiters and remainers, Germans, French, Dutch et al have concerns over that. I'm talking about out and out racism.

There is concern and then there are the Daily(hate) mail readers.

[Witton Park]

A week pound improves exports but makes imports more expensive. Amongst other things, imports such as oil. Ignoring tariffs (which may come later) price increases directly cause inflation. Toblerone have already taken drastic action , VW have announced price increases, and Unilever are strongly hinting at them so this isn't something that might happen, its already happening. Inflation, unless earnings rise hand in hand with it, decreases demand for goods. Inflation also usually leads to interest rate rises and, at present, aren't we at largest ever personal borrowing levels at £1.5 trillion? The IFS have predicted a £25 billion additional borrowing requirement for the government in this parliament directly down to Brexit - that's £25 billion taking into account EU contribution savings! If that proves to be the case how is Brexit economically a good thing?



I'm not talking about concerns over immigration. Lots of people, brexiters and remainers, Germans, French, Dutch et al have concerns over that. I'm talking about out and out racism.

The Bank of England has a target inflation rate of 2% and it has been below target since 2013. In fact it is so far below target that for the second time the Governor will have to write to the Chancellor to explain why.
A moderate rate of inflation is an indicator of a healthy economy and hence the target rate so the economy can manage some inflationary pressure.

Until the BoE announced the rate cut in August, QE and other measures, the £ was above $1.30 which was in reality only a drop of around 7% from the pre-referendum trend rate in the 1.40s.
Those measures by the BoE were in view of 0.1% growth in 3rd quarter and similar in the 4th quarter and less than 1% on 2017.
These BoE measures hit savers, hit the £ and were based on forecasts that were way below the reality. They have probably doubled the drop in the £ since the referendum.

The fact that VW are putting up there prices is exactly what I have forecast if you have read my pre-brexit report that I posted on #259.
It won't just be VW it will be others.
But Nissan, Toyota, Honda....will not have to do so the % of UK made cars sold in the UK market should increase.

So modest inflation, increased exports due to lower £ puts more money in people's pockets, increased business in UK market due to less competition from overseas.

The extra borrowing requirement is because the Chancellor has decided to relax the deficit targets that Osborne set. Blame Brexit perhaps, but Osborne's figures were largely political anyway targeted at hitting some headlines just before the 2020 election they had planned.
At least that is what Osborne's critics were saying when he set those targets.

How is Brexit a good thing? Well personally life isn't all about GDP / Growth and money. Whilst I enjoy a debate, I actually think we could see a drop in GDP and see our quality of life improve in the UK. We will only be able to make a judgement in 10 - 20 years time.

It will be a judgement as we will never know for sure. But we can probably get a gauge from the relative economic measures for similar economies like Germany and France.

[Witton Park]

maybe I read this wrong but I don't think so. As you wrote - insults can be subtle or blatant. Yours falls into both camps. Not acceptable at all. Not at anytime have I insulted anyone, either blatant or subtle or by being sly. This is the reason most people do not stand up to be heard as there is always someone to try and put them in a box and be a bully. Don't worry though. I wont give my opinion on this thread again.

I hope you carry on contributing. I largely share your opinions and I also think you just misread Shaunaneto.

[Wheeze]

Same here.

[luxinterior]

People keep going on how democracy has won and therefore Brexit has to happen. Democracy also means people can protest and object and do what ever is in the power to change things. It is no less democratic

The Poll Tax is a good example of democracy taking is course.

Personally I think there should be another referendum

[sbrt]

[QUOTE=luxinterior;628489
Personally I think there should be another referendum[/QUOTE]

Me too. It could become an annual event. In out, in out, ya shake it all about.

[sbrt]

But Nissan, Toyota, Honda....will not have to do so the % of UK made cars sold in the UK market should increase.

So modest inflation, increased exports due to lower £ puts more money in people's pockets, increased business in UK market due to less competition from overseas.
.

Nissan and Toyota export most of the cars they make. I am not sure what currency they trade in, but most international businesses, trade in $ not £. A weak pound costs them money.
At the moment, we import more than we export. which will also cost us. At least for the short term. Who knows about the future?