post brexit

[Muddy Retriever]

The IFS have predicted a £25 billion additional borrowing requirement for the government in this parliament directly down to Brexit

Well it could be that Witton is correct and that this forecast deterioration in the public finances is down to Phillip Hammond abandoning George Osborne's spending plans. But in any case I am extremely sceptical of economic forecasts and it always amuses me when people try to present them as facts that will definitly happen. As I mentioned in my last post, growth in the last quarter came to 0.5%. Just before the referendum the Treasury forecast that the impact of voting to leave would cause growth to shrink to -0.1%. So they got it spectacularly wrong in just one quarter!

With regard to inflation, as Witton pointed out the fall in the pound has been exacerbated by the Bank of England lowering interest rates and announcing more QE - A move that was completely unnecessary. But in any case even the Bank of England only expects inflation to be 2.7% by the end of 2017. Its target is 2% so that would hardly be a crisis.

Something most of the economic forecasters never take into account is the potential for the UK to sign its own trade deals. They assume it just won't happen. But the reality is that countries around the world appear to be falling over backwards to do a trade deal with the UK. Not only would this boost exports, it would also make imports cheaper particularly in food and beverages. At the moment, being in the EU means we have to impose a tariff of 20%.

[luxinterior]

Me too. It could become an annual event. In out, in out, ya shake it all about.

Made this forum more exciting

All we need is Jeremy Corbyn as PM and it will be a full house of craziness

[Stolly]

But who's prediction of the economy is likely to be more accurate? The IFS's or Muddy Retriever's? Or WittonPark's? Perhaps you guys have your own economic modelling tools but, I'm not sure reading and believing the Daily Mail is going to 100% work out

[Muddy Retriever]

This Guardian article from a couple of years ago provides some useful stats on racial prejudice. Its uncanny how that survey's findings mirror brexit voter profiles

By this indicator racial prejudice is at at about 30%. So if this is indeed true and people put this into practice when voting in the referendum you would also expect them to do the same in general elections wouldn't you. Why not vote for an openly racist party like the BNP? Problem with that theory is that the vote the BNP gets in general elections is tiny.

I expect some people are prejudiced but don't actually think so. I'm thinking of the problem of antisemitism on the left. I imagine most of them voted to Remain.

[Muddy Retriever]

But who's prediction of the economy is likely to be more accurate? The IFS's or Muddy Retriever's? Or WittonPark's? Perhaps you guys have your own economic modelling tools but, I'm not sure reading and believing the Daily Mail is going to 100% work out

Accurate forecasting is extremely difficult, there are so many unknowns. What we can do is compare the forecasts to what happened in reality. None of these expert bodies predicted the euro crisis or the financial crash.

Had to chuckle when you threw in the old Daily Mail chestnut. On this forum it normally means that the person using it has run out of arguments.

[bigfella]

The Poll Tax is a good example of democracy taking is course.

Well we didn't have a referendum about the poll tax just a minority of people rioting because they didn't like it. Is that democracy?

[Witton Park]

But who's prediction of the economy is likely to be more accurate? The IFS's or Muddy Retriever's? Or Witton Park's? Perhaps you guys have your own economic modelling tools but, I'm not sure reading and believing the Daily Mail is going to 100% work out

Stolly, as much as I like you, there is a type of bigotry in your posts. The Daily Mail comment in this one that's totally unnecessary in making your point.
I don't read it and have occasionally seen a copy when flying on BA.

All I'd say so far is that my predictions post Brexit are closer to the mark that the IFS

[Witton Park]

Well we didn't have a referendum about the poll tax just a minority of people rioting because they didn't like it. Is that democracy?

I'd also add to that that yes we have a democracy. So when a decision is taken at the ballot box, get on with it and then assess it. Only then can it be judged.

In essence that is what happened with poll tax, which incidentally left me and my wife worse off, but our neighbours who were both elderly widows better off, and I thought it was fair.
I went from £170 rates to £380 poll tax. I've moved since but the Council Tax is around £1200 now.

[noel]

The Daily Mail comment in this one that's totally unnecessary in making your point.

Do people who read the Mail not consider it an insult? Similarly, when people are called liberal Guardian readers, do they proudly say "yes, that's me"?

I'd say you were more of a Telegraph reader WP. And that wasn't intended as an insult, so apologies if you think it is.

Cards on the table: I read the Times, as it's free at work. But if I had to buy a paper, I'd probably buy the Times.

[Stolly]

Haha the Daily Mail jibe was a cheap shot but it was funny, even funnier that it touched a nerve and you reacted so badly to it . We'll just leave it that you (MR and WP) and the Daily Mail co-incidentally are as one on all this then.

The point about the IFS, and the Bank of England come to that, is that they have a huge amount of resources, knowledge, systems, computations and sophisticated modelling tools. And they are independent. Yep I agree they can get predictions wrong but, in the scheme of things, they're more likely to be right than two fell runners on a fell running forum