New political party?

[Muddy Retriever]

What nonsense How about replacing Italy with Ireland.

When Ireland joined the EU and then the Euro it was decades behind mainland Europe in economic and social development.

On 1st January 2002 countries first started using Euro bank notes. The year before Ireland was ranked 13th out of 195 countries in the world for GDP per capita.

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/ireland?year=2001

That doesn't sound like being light years behind the rest of Europe to me. Ireland adopts a very competitive corporation tax rate, which attracts a lot of investment. That is a much better explanation for Ireland's success. That may not last forever though - the EU has plans to harmonise tax rates across Europe. This will cause tremendous damage to Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...exit-1.3220094

I already said that countries have to take some responsibility for their problems but the euro strait jacket exacerbates them as I explained. Some countries can compete at the same exchange rate but others quite clearly cannot.

[DrPatrickBarry]

Some countries can compete at the same exchange rate but others quite clearly cannot.

Why not?

Is there something inherentialy wrong in how they run their own economies that prevents them running their countries properly.
Will leaving a strict rules system fix those inherent problems, or just allow them to paper over the cracks, with devaluations,etc.

We all know where that leads to eventually.

[Stolly]

If they'd really wanted a presence in Europe then they would have created one.

The plant in Swindon was already well below capacity and in general the car industry is in crisis in Europe. Honda's growth markets are in Asia.

Why do you know better than Honda themselves?

. They have (and will have had) a presence in Europe 😊

[Muddy Retriever]

Why not?

Is there something inherentialy wrong in how they run their own economies that prevents them running their countries properly.
Will leaving a strict rules system fix those inherent problems, or just allow them to paper over the cracks, with devaluations,etc.

We all know where that leads to eventually.

But these countries have very diverse economies and cultures, it is mistaken to believe that they will all act in the same way. Why should there be a prescriptive way of doing things? A strict "one size fits all" rules system doesn't work as has been demonstrated.

They haven't fixed the inherent problem that a political and banking union doesn't exist. There will be very few defences left when the next global downturn comes, which does not look far away.

Devaluations create the breathing space to fix problems - whether countries do so is up to them. They have certainly helped Italy in the past - as in fact the UK was helped when it dropped out of the ERM in 1992. What was thought of as Black Wednesday at the time eventually became Golden Wednesday as the UK quickly economy recovered and 16 years of unbroken growth followed.

[Stolly]

“Remain would win a second referendum by 9 points”. Here’s hoping 🤞 https://www.businessinsider.com/youg...19-2?r=US&IR=T 😊

[Oracle]

I suggest you study the dysfunctionality of the Euro before echo brussels line. All previous currency unions have failed for exactly the same reasons, including several previous unions in Europe and the very comparable roublezone. The euro is beggaring the southern countries. I am amazed people are willing to stand by and accept the social demolition it causes by supporting EU.

Bottom line: It is impossible to combine dislike economies under the same interest rate and exchange rates period. Certainly not with ECB ridiculous banking rules which will bring italian banks to collapse. Nor has italy levers of control to correct it whilst in EU.

It is only a matter of time before the Eurozone collapses. The probable trigger? mass youth unemployment becoming increasingly young adults will no longer accept austerity it forces, hence populist elections. Italy will crash out first and when it defaults, the EU will tumble. Target 2 and issuer limits show the game is up. As for ireland, think low taxes.

[noel]

Interesting speculation Oracle. Low taxes to attract companies certainly help business. I'm yet to be convinced that it's good for citizens.

Whenever anyone uses this argument about disparate economies, I'm reminded of the US economy. There they have states will lots of different laws to each other and very different economic circumstances. Yet they have one currency. I'm not hearing a clamour of people saying Alabama (for example) should leave the dollar to devalue its way out of debt. And yet people are proposing it as a solution to the woes of some Southern European countries.

[Oracle]

Bad example: The list of bankrupt towns and states is growing.
Detroit is a ghost town that can never recover. Direct result of corbyn like spending binge, all the same messages, all the way to bankruptcy. All the professional people that can have gone ( just like greece, portugal, italy). Public services once booming now no longer exist. Inevitable increasing tax rates for the few that remain prevent it ever recovering. Just like (portugal, italy, greece) Italy under a lira could reboot. First it must default.
The economies of the USA are essentially similar, unlike the Eurozone.

Interesting speculation Oracle. Low taxes to attract companies certainly help business. I'm yet to be convinced that it's good for citizens.

Whenever anyone uses this argument about disparate economies, I'm reminded of the US economy. There they have states will lots of different laws to each other and very different economic circumstances. Yet they have one currency. I'm not hearing a clamour of people saying Alabama (for example) should leave the dollar to devalue its way out of debt. And yet people are proposing it as a solution to the woes of some Southern European countries.

[Muddy Retriever]

Whenever anyone uses this argument about disparate economies, I'm reminded of the US economy. There they have states will lots of different laws to each other and very different economic circumstances. Yet they have one currency. I'm not hearing a clamour of people saying Alabama (for example) should leave the dollar to devalue its way out of debt. And yet people are proposing it as a solution to the woes of some Southern European countries.

The US isn't perfect as alluded to by Oracle but one of the reason it manages better than the eurozone is because of fiscal transfers from richer states to poorer ones. I mentioned this in a post of mine earlier today. This is quite an old article - from 2013 - but it gives a good explanation.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...l-integration/

US taxes at federal level average 17% of GDP while the EU collects only 1% of GDP. The USA is a political and fiscal union. The eurozone is not.

Here is a very readable article about why the euro has failed.

https://qz.com/1377098/why-the-euro-failed/

[Witton Park]

Firstly on the trade front, we already know that leaving without a deal will completely hammer us, so clearly staying in the EU is profoundly better than that, and secondly the only one example of leaving the EU where we might be better off is the cloud cuckoo land star spangled unicorn ideal of ‘full trading benefits of eu, but with no contributions and closed borders’ which will never ever happen. So staying in is easily better for trade.

Secondly, aside from trade, what about all of the other massive advantages of staying in the EU that I listed.... presumably which you ignored as you have no answers 😉

"know"

opinion - I don't know that to be true but my opinion is that it might not be, but of course I cannot speak for Govt policy that might be adapted to us having a clean break and not one of the models takes in to account any changes of Government policy after leaving, or any changes come to that when they model us Remaining.