Brexit

[Oracle]

There are a lot of variables to come in to play before this.

If the Tories went now with May, this might be correct, although I suspect the LibDems are a little over-aged.

But I don't think the Tories will go with May. I will be quite surprised if she doesn't announce her departure, staying on until the new leader is in place.

Johnson as leader would in my opinion add 30-50 seats to the above.

Faced with a clean Brexit Tory party, where do Labour go? I think they would implode in many of the Northern towns.

All guesswork I accept that Stolly, but that's how I read it.

A leadership contest could be done in 2-3 weeks.

A General Election by early June.

Ask EU for extension until late June.

Why a general election? Corbyns amendments got voted down just as heavily. Eu will not negotiate. I agree there will be a leadership election.

I am guessing in a confidence vote neither DUP nor "change group" will vote to depose the government for completely different reasons.

[Oracle]

That’s really interesting as I’d put Johnson down as a guaranteed vote loser. A new Farage party could also jump into the mix and plunder votes from the tories (and labour) - they wouldn’t neccessarily win any seats but just upset the vote balance

Farage has said he will only contest the european elections not domestic. The new "change group" are likely to dilute labour votes if an election is run, but they are highly unlikely to want an election until they are more established. So with DUP (hating republican IRA sympathiser Corbyn) and change group (trying to avoid electoral oblivion if they have any sense)there are plenty enough to prop up may to survive a vote of confidence.

May could of course call it: but I dont have her down as a scorched earth wrecker.
Labour have nothing to offer on brexit. Corbyns silly strategy failed in indicative vote. Labour either alienate a majority of members or a majority of consituencies. They are screwed. The disingenous fudge in the manifesto will not survive this time

[TheGrump]

I repeat what I posted 5 days ago:
A senior commentator/journalist for one of the heavier weight newspapers wrote the following last weekend. I paraphrase.
"498 MPs led by the front benches of both parties voted at the second reading to trigger Article 50. This became law, and prescribes that if the U.K. cannot get the deal it wants, then we leave with no deal. The subsequent vote against no deal is actually non-binding. Therefore the U.K. should leave on March 29th."

[TheGrump]

What negotiation? The EU never intended a negotiation. This is not Mays deal and she should not take the blame. It is EUs failure of a non deal. They have laid down terms to preserve their autocracy however it harms their nation states expecting Britain to conform because our Mps are so stupid as to say they will not no deal. So being called Britains "negotiator" is at best an honorary title, that nobody could want. Minute taker for EU demands would be more accurate. Particularly when chicken liver MPs will not stand up to them.

I think you miss my point.....
I recommend some fresh air away from the stench of Westminster politics.

[Derby Tup]

Maybe have a steady walk round the Bob Graham Oracle

[Dave_Mole]

You cannot seriously hope a terrorist loving marxist thug intent on total financial destruction gets into power?

I think it would make a nice change.

[Wheeze]

If they were smart, the Remainers should consider a rebranding as Rejoiners. I.E, accept that leaving, however botched, is going to happen now, but campaign for a referendum on rejoining after, say, a five year period so that can know and compare in and out. Its the only way to heal the divisions that now exist.

[Oracle]

If they were smart, the Remainers should consider a rebranding as Rejoiners. I.E, accept that leaving, however botched, is going to happen now, but campaign for a referendum on rejoining after, say, a five year period so that can know and compare in and out. Its the only way to heal the divisions that now exist.

The next campaign should be abolition of both houses of parliament.If they are incapable of either keeping to mandate or taking any decision but "no" we might as well save the money.

[Daletownrunner]

I think it would make a nice change.

Ha, I have actually just snorted tea down my nose

[Stolly]

If they were smart, the Remainers should consider a rebranding as Rejoiners. I.E, accept that leaving, however botched, is going to happen now, but campaign for a referendum on rejoining after, say, a five year period so that can know and compare in and out. Its the only way to heal the divisions that now exist.

If we end up leaving that’s an absolute deffo straight off the blocks. If there’s a general election in the near future I suspect remainers/rejoiners will be voting for remain/rejoin parties. Nobody’s going to wait 5 years.