Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
Boris hasn't actually attempted to put much through the Commons. But his main priority was to persuade the EU to revise the Withdrawal Agreement and remove the backstop.

I still don't like his agreement, but it is better, and he has achieved something no one thought he could.

As for the current polling.

Ipsos MORI: CON: 41% (+8) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 20% (-3) BREX: 7% (-3)
YouGov: CON: 36% (-) LAB: 21% (-2) LDEM: 18% (-) BREX: 13% (+1)
Survation: CON: 34% (+2) LAB: 26% (+2) LDEM: 19% (-2) BREX: 12% (-1)

Average
Tory 37, Labour 24, LDEM 19, Brex 11 is I suspect about where we are at the moment.

So the 7% is one poll and a bit of a rogue one which has the Tories at 41%, so if you want to take that as a guide, Boris is home and dry with a 50+ seat majority.
The BP have typically been 12/13% for a few weeks now.

Their national polling level isn't actually that relevant. It is how they do in the specific places.
Burnley near me, 66% leave, Labour MP.
Wigan - 63% leave, Labour MP.
Stoke-on-Trent North - 72% leave, Labour MP

They can drop to 7% on election night, but still gain some seats in specific areas.
Ipsos Mori had the 2017 snap election as a shoe in for the conservatives when it was called WP so it’s still all to play for. I still have no idea how they get reliable polling especially on their telephone polls. I mean how many people actually use their land lines anymore or are in to take calls.... apart from elderly Tory voters of course 😉