Brexit

[Stolly]

Yeah I agree that that’s another unknown too but that split will be effected by tactical voting as much as anything. I’d be happy to vote Lib Dem or labour depending on what is gauged to be the best anti-Brexit vote and there’s a huge number of remainers now that put remain well ahead of any party loyalty. I’d vote green if I lived in Brighton.

[DrPatrickBarry]

But then again just as likely is the Remain vote being split between Labour and LibDems

That's why it is so hard to call how this election is going to go.

Ya, I was just taking the piss. I have seen numberous people from polling companies asked how it will turn out and they all threw their hands in the air and said impossible to predict.

Interesting times ahead.

[Witton Park]

But then again just as likely is the Remain vote being split between Labour and LibDems

That's why it is so hard to call how this election is going to go.

Labour/LibDems/Greens/NATs in Wales and Scotland.

[Witton Park]

Boris hasn't actually attempted to put much through the Commons. But his main priority was to persuade the EU to revise the Withdrawal Agreement and remove the backstop.

I still don't like his agreement, but it is better, and he has achieved something no one thought he could.

As for the current polling.

Ipsos MORI: CON: 41% (+8) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 20% (-3) BREX: 7% (-3)
YouGov: CON: 36% (-) LAB: 21% (-2) LDEM: 18% (-) BREX: 13% (+1)
Survation: CON: 34% (+2) LAB: 26% (+2) LDEM: 19% (-2) BREX: 12% (-1)

Average
Tory 37, Labour 24, LDEM 19, Brex 11 is I suspect about where we are at the moment.

So the 7% is one poll and a bit of a rogue one which has the Tories at 41%, so if you want to take that as a guide, Boris is home and dry with a 50+ seat majority.
The BP have typically been 12/13% for a few weeks now.

Their national polling level isn't actually that relevant. It is how they do in the specific places.
Burnley near me, 66% leave, Labour MP.
Wigan - 63% leave, Labour MP.
Stoke-on-Trent North - 72% leave, Labour MP

They can drop to 7% on election night, but still gain some seats in specific areas.

[Stolly]

Boris hasn't actually attempted to put much through the Commons. But his main priority was to persuade the EU to revise the Withdrawal Agreement and remove the backstop.

I still don't like his agreement, but it is better, and he has achieved something no one thought he could.

As for the current polling.

Ipsos MORI: CON: 41% (+8) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 20% (-3) BREX: 7% (-3)
YouGov: CON: 36% (-) LAB: 21% (-2) LDEM: 18% (-) BREX: 13% (+1)
Survation: CON: 34% (+2) LAB: 26% (+2) LDEM: 19% (-2) BREX: 12% (-1)

Average
Tory 37, Labour 24, LDEM 19, Brex 11 is I suspect about where we are at the moment.

So the 7% is one poll and a bit of a rogue one which has the Tories at 41%, so if you want to take that as a guide, Boris is home and dry with a 50+ seat majority.
The BP have typically been 12/13% for a few weeks now.

Their national polling level isn't actually that relevant. It is how they do in the specific places.
Burnley near me, 66% leave, Labour MP.
Wigan - 63% leave, Labour MP.
Stoke-on-Trent North - 72% leave, Labour MP

They can drop to 7% on election night, but still gain some seats in specific areas.

Ipsos Mori had the 2017 snap election as a shoe in for the conservatives when it was called WP so it’s still all to play for. I still have no idea how they get reliable polling especially on their telephone polls. I mean how many people actually use their land lines anymore or are in to take calls.... apart from elderly Tory voters of course 😉

[Dave_Mole]

Boris hasn't actually attempted to put much through the Commons.

nah, just the Brexit thing, wasn't it? How did that go?

[Stagger]

Come Nige and Boris please apply our democratic views.

[Muddy Retriever]

nah, just the Brexit thing, wasn't it? How did that go?

Obviously not well because we had a Remain dominated parliament determined to either stop Brexit or at the very least dilute it to the point of it being meaningless. Many of them of course doing so in contravention of their manifesto commitments. We know all this, so what's your point? It's hardly Boris' fault that this parliament was so disreputable.

[Stagger]

Oh dear Boris are you making a big mistake???

[CL]

His negotiating position had been undermined by parliamentary shenanigans such as the Surrender Act so I think Boris did very well to get the deal he did. We were told that the EU would not reopen the Withdrawal agreement but they did, that they would not remove the backstop but again they did.

Assuming the deal ever gets through Parliament, the UK will not be in the Customs Union, which is a big plus in my eyes. Also the so called level playing field provisions, which would have kept the UK tied into EU regulations have been removed from the binding Withdrawal Agreement to the non-binding Political Declaration. Such vague fair competition commitments are apparently common in free-trade deals. i think the UK will be able to diverge.

The deal isn't perfect and I can see why the DUP aren't happy. It is a fudge on Northern Ireland as WP says. But the deal is definitely not BRINO.

I suspect you're not convinced however CL. Will Nigel still be getting your vote?

Yes I think so if that option is available to me. I've enjoyed listening to his show on LBC over the past year. And through it he has created a following that cannot be underestimated. I expect his influence to be great.

As for Boris' treaty I'm with Nigel and 'The Oracle' on that one. It'll lead to years of acrimony. Just getting it done so we can all have a bit of peace and quiet now will be one of those "it seemed like a good idea at the time."