This article would appear to support your view. It's worth a read.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...thout-lockdown
Sweden's current R number is estimated to be 0.85 and this has been achieved without an enforced lockdown. Instead the Swedes have engaged in voluntary social distancing.
Imperial College estimated that without a lockdown, Sweden's R number would grow to between 3 and 4 and that by 1st May, its Covid-19 deaths would have reached 40,000 (nearly 100,000 by June). Actual deaths are in fact 2,680 and daily deaths peaked two weeks ago.
It is worth pointing out that it's Nordic neighbours, which have enforced lockdowns have suffered less deaths. But it is clear that Sweden has fared nowhere near as badly as most experts predicted.







