Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
SARS had much lower transmissibility , and good fortune helped.

Covid is far more endemic, by a factor of hundreds or thousands. The confusion over symptoms and assymptomatic carriers made it endemic before it was even recognised as a problem.

It is not going away after months.Brazil is on the way up not down.

Schools cannot wait till it is “ unconditionally safe”. It Is years, not weeks.
You could be right, it could be with us for a long time.

However, I'm fascinated by what's going on in London right now. They've had exactly the same lockdown as everywhere else in the UK but unlike elsewhere, they are getting hardly any new infections. What can be the explanation for that?

It could be wishful thinking, but perhaps the virus has run it's course there. As London, initially had far more infections than the rest of the UK, could an element of herd immunity be kicking in? The Liverpool School of tropical medicine believes herd community kicks in at much less than the 60% figure that is conventionally quoted. This is based on the theory that people's susceptibility to the virus varies. So that as the epidemic progresses, the pool of easily infected people starts to dry up.

Certainly this would explain the situation in Sweden where there has been no lockdown. Although it has had more infections and deaths than its neighbours, the pandemic is still broadly having the same trajectory as elsewhere.

It's a hope anyway.